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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
618 PM EDT Sat may 25 2013
high pressure from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will continue
to build into the middle Atlantic this weekend...resulting in dry and
cool conditions. A warming trend will begin Memorial Day and last
through next week as the high becomes situated off the East
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
latest surface analysis depicts surface low pressure deepening off the
coast of southern Maine...as the upper level cutoff low spins over
southern New England/eastern New York state. Mesoscale convective system situated over the middle
MS valley has weakened this afternoon as it encountered drier air over
the Ohio/Tennessee Valley. Still some high clouds over portions of the County Warning Area
this afternoon...along with breezy northwest winds. Quite cool for Memorial
Day weekend with afternoon observation holding in the 60s for most locations.
Expect skies to become mainly clear this evening as high clouds
are shunted south in the northwest flow aloft. Diminishing winds and
clear skies will lead to mins tonight about 15 degrees colder than
normal/mainly 40-45 well inland and 45 to 50 near the coast. This
will be near but just above record lows (see climate section below).
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday/...
middle/upper level pattern will be slow to evolve over the next few
days...with ridging downstream over the central Continental U.S. And a cutoff
low gradually pushing NE and off the New England coast by Sun afternoon.
At the surface...pressure gradient will relax quite a bit by Sun afternoon as
the coastal low moves off to the Canadian Maritimes and high
pressure builds southeast from the Great Lakes. In terms of sensible weather on
Sunday...winds will be lighter and skies will generally be sunny. After
a very cool start...temperatures will warm rapidly with highs 70-75
for most of the region (coolest near the coast and warmest
along/west of I-95). Note...stayed on cool side of guidance as mav
numbers/MOS guidance have generally been too warm past few days.
Still chilly Sun night under mainly clear skies and light winds but
with airmass modifying...expect mins to be a few degrees warmer than
Sat night...went close to mav numbers with lows primarily from the
middle to upper 40s. Stalled frontal boundary over the Gulf states will
begin to lift northward late sun and Monday while at the same
time...upper level ridge will finally progress eastward. As a result...a more
significant warming trend will commence on Monday. As the ridge
progresses eastward...a warm/moist airmass will interact with the
boundary to produce showers and thunderstorms over the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon. Still looks too dry/stable east of the
mountains so will keep forecast dry west/ just some scattered afternoon cumulus
anticipated. Highs range from the upper 70s/near 80 along and west
of I-95 to the lower 70s near the coast. Any convective activity to
the west may form into a mesoscale convective system. Mesoscale convective system will round
the ridge...but will likely die out before reaching the middle Atlantic.
Boundary will continue to lift northward Monday night...much milder with lows
from the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Boundary sets up somewhere across
the area on Tuesday...NAM depicts a lot more moisture than the
GFS/ECMWF...but both suggest enough moisture to include at least a
20 to 30% for for rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms and rain across the County Warning Area. Highs mainly
80-85 under partly to mostly cloudy skies and increasing southerly
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
high pressure ridging over the east and resultant above normal
daytime temperatures will headline the extended period.
Strong upper trough will continue to dig over the western Continental U.S.
Wednesday...further amplifying the central/eastern Continental U.S. Ridge as it progresses
eastward. Ridge axis will locate from the southeast states nwwd into the northern
plains...progressing eastward over the middle Atlantic into the Great Lakes
region Thursday afternoon. Strong upper Bermuda high (+1 Standard dev)
prognosticated to center just off the NC coast Thursday afternoon.
Thereafter...medium range models in poor/fair agreement with upper
level pattern. Main error region looks to be over central Quebec
associated with a shortwave traversing southeast Canada (large model spread
in ensemble runs). Models agree on compressing the ridge over the NE
states...but 25/00z European model (ecmwf) is more amplified with the ridge axis. The
subsequent sensible weather impact will be the location of the
boundary over the NE states. Regardless of the differences...front
expected to remain well to the north of the local area Wed-Fri.
Thus...expect warm/moist Summer-like airmass to anchor over the
region. +1 Standard dev 500 mb and 850 mb heights (as well as +1 Standard dev 850 mb
temps) will translate to temperatures +1 Standard dev (generally in the
middle/upper 80s) Wed-Sat. Dewpoints will also increase into the middle
60s...as precipitation waters prognosticated to be around 1.25 to 1.5 inches Wednesday
afternoon before decreasing Thursday. Combination of warm/humid and
unstable airmass may be enough to interact with developing weak
Lee side troughing to allow for diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms. However...confidence is not high at this time so will limit
probability of precipitation below slight chance. Decreasing moisture Thursday-Sat will
inhibit any chances for precipitation.
Aviation /22z Saturday through Thursday/...
impressive upper trough for this time of year over New England will
slowly be lifting northeast away from the area. This will push the
low pressure off the New England coast northeast away from the
area tonight and Sunday. Main issue in the forecast this afternoon
is wind speed and gusts. Looking at BUFKIT soundings and current
observations will generally have winds 10 to 15 kts from the northwest
with gusts from 20 to 25 kts. The strongest gusts will be near
sby. After sunset the winds will diminish quickly and be around 10
kts on Sunday. The direction will be northwest through Sunday.
Continued mainly clear skies through Sunday. Some cirrus clouds
coming off the mountains into ric this afternoon may also cross
phf. Still looking at VFR conditions on Memorial Day then with a
warm front approaching for Tuesday could develop scattered
thunderstorms with potential MVFR in the storms.
Small Craft Advisory dropped over southern waters as noted below. Keeping an eye on
secondary surge later on this evening as secondary surface trough
pushes across. Coastal waters forecast has been modified slightly from prvs issuance.
Low pressure will continue to lift up the NE coast tonight as high
pressure continues to build over the Ohio Valley. Cold air advection (850 temperatures 2-3
Standard dev) will continue to result in strong northwest winds over the
waters this evening. However...with high pressure beginning to
extend into the southeast states...the gradient over the southern coastal
waters and Currituck Sound has relaxed...with observed speeds 10
to 15 knots. Seas have also fallen below 4 feet. Will end the Small Craft Advisory
headlines at 6 PM EDT for the southern coastal zones as well as
the Currituck Sound as a result. Otherwise...northwest winds 15 to 20 knots
over the Bay and 20 to 25 knots over the northern coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory
speeds are borderline over the northern coastal waters...but seas of 5
feet still expected 20 nm out through the overnight. Small Craft Advisory headlines
will drop off early Sunday morning as high pressure builds over
the local area and the pressure gradient relaxes. A few Small Craft Advisory gusts
may continue through middle morning across the Northern Bay.
Thereafter...an extended period of sub Small Craft Advisory conds expected over the
waters as high pressure continues to build over the region through
the Memorial Day weekend. High pressure will slide offshore
Tuesday as a warm front lifts over the waters...with high pressure
remaining just off the southeast coast through the remainder of
set a record low at Elizabeth City NC this morning at 43 f (old
record had been 47). May come close to challenging a few record
lows again Sunday...record lows for may 26th are listed below:
Salisbury Maryland........39 (1917)
Elizabeth City NC...44 (1967)
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Sunday for anz630>632-634-
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