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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
934 am EST Thursday Dec 12 2013
lake effect snow will continue east and southeast of lakes Ontario
and Erie...occasionally bringing snow squalls to the region through
Friday. A very cold air mass will keep temperatures below normal
the rest of this week. A storm system this weekend may bring
accumulating snowfall to all of northeast Pennsylvania and central
Near term /through tonight/...
930 am update...
very dry fluffy leftovers of old Ontario band continue to lift
from Syracuse-Cortland-Sydney-Norwich areas northeastward.
Meanwhile...with flow just off the surface having quickly backed
to west on the way to west-southwest...New Lake Ontario band is developing along
the long axis of the lake upstream...set to establish north of the
County Warning Area. However...west-southwest flow upstream also well aligned down long axis
of Lake Erie...and will be enough to carry well inland across
portions of central New York between southern tier and New York state
thruway...similar to yesterday in placement yet not quite as much
in magnitude due to drier synoptic air mass. Probability of precipitation have been
increased accordingly for those prone areas but with additional
snow amounts of mainly 1-2 inches for today.
Another wave late tonight will again veer the flow...sending
remains of Erie band into at least the southern tier/western
Catskills...but more importantly dropping meat of Ontario band
across northern Oneida County. Lake effect snow watch remains in
place tonight into Friday...but appears main threat is after
midnight. The question is how fast the band drops through...will
it be enough to add up to warning amounts /7 inches or more/ or
will it pass too quickly...intense yet brief. Soundings show ideal
cross hair signature when band GOES through...that is with beefy
Omega cutting straight through and well beyond horizontal
dendritic growth temperature layer.
Short term /Friday through Friday night/...
Ontario band shd drop into northern Oneida sometime after 06z tonight and
continue making progress southward. Transitory nature of the band will
limit ttl amts...but extreme instability and deep moisture well
into the dendritic growth zones shd make the band quite intense.
Flow slowly becomes more sheared through the day Friday as a surface
hipres builds into the area so band will weaken through the day...especially
in the afternoon.
Return flow and a developing warm fnt will bring synoptic scale snow to
the area late Friday night into Sat morning. Bulk of the precipitation will fall
beyond the short term...but good covering of light snow seems likely by
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
205 am update...
concentrated on the weekend storm for this package. Opted for a
GFS/Euro blend when determining precipitation type, and slightly
truncated the sleet/mix line southward in favor of a little more
Models continue to show split energy with a New England coast
cyclone having some of its potency robbed by the Great Lakes
wave/low. The effect is to keep the system a bit disorganized,
thus decreasing maximum quantitative precipitation forecast potential. Provided the system remains
cold, advisory accums look like a lock.
main issue during the long term period continues to be potential
for widespread snows and even the possibility for some mixed
precipitation across the lower Wyoming Valley and Poconos beginning Saturday
and lasting into Saturday night/early Sunday. During this
timeframe...forecast models continue to advertise a northern stream
wave diving south and east across the western Great Lakes/upper
Midwest...while another southern stream wave ejects from the
Southern Plains into the lower miss River Valley. As both upper waves
dig...models agree that a frontal boundary stalled to our south
will begin advancing north once again as a consolidating 850-mb
low begins moving northeast from the middle miss valley into southern
Ontario province by 00z Sunday. Ahead of this feature...expect
developing warm air advection snows as 850-mb flow increases to
near 30 kts and isentropic ascent increases along the 285 and 290k
Theta surfaces. From this Vantage Point...warm air advection snows
look to continue through a good part of the day as first the
850-mb low center tracks north and east of our forecast area...and the
southern stream surface reflection moves off the southeastern virgina
coast by 00z Sunday. Under this scenario...much of the forecast area
will remain in the northwest quadrant of the primary surface feature
thus ensuring low-level cold air will remain in place through much
of the event. The only exception as of right now appears to be across
the lower Wyoming Valley and Poconos Saturday night where some warm air
may temporarily advance into northeast PA as energy from the
northern stream surface low transfers to the main low off the
Atlantic Seaboard. Snows expected to continue through much of the
overnight as moisture wraps in from the main low off the coast
and additional forcing for ascent becoming more apparent as positive vorticity advection
increases in advance of aforementioned northern stream wave
approaching from the Central Lakes and southern Ontario. As a
result...confidence is increasing that several inches of synoptic
snow can be expected across the area through the weekend. For
now...will highlight concerns on the severe weather potential statement product until forecast
details become more certain pending additional model guidance.
Beyond this...broad northwest flow to result in redeveloping lake
snows east and southeast of both lakes early into next week...with
additional synoptic snows possible Monday night/early Tuesday as
elongated warm front advances north across the area. Temperatures through
the period look to hover slightly below normal as cool northwest
flow remains in place.
Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/...
remnants of weakened lake band will bring MVFR conditions to syr
for a few more hours, before VFR conditions return. It will be a
quiet afternoon for the most part. However a band off of Lake Erie
is forecast to extend into the central forecast area and potentially bring
low MVFR conditions to ith, bgm, and Elm for a brief period during
the afternoon hours.
Ontario lake band will reform and intensify late in the day over
Oswego County, with the periphery of the band potentially touching
rme and causing minor visibility and ceiling restrictions. Latest
model guidance suggests a better chance for the band to move
through rme early Friday morning, between 7z and 12z, with IFR
Friday...mainly VFR...however restrictions possible in lake effect
snow at krme.
Sat/sun...restrictions likely region-wide in snow as storm system
moves through the area.
Sun ngt/Mon...restrictions possible from lake effect snow showers
New York...Lake effect snow watch from 7 PM EST this evening through
Friday afternoon for nyz009.
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