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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1128 PM EDT Sat may 25 2013
a deep upper low over southern New England will continue to move
slowly northeast on Sunday. High pressure will build southeast out
of the Great Lakes Sunday into Memorial Day ensuring cool but fair
weather. Temperatures will be below normal into Memorial Day...
but will moderate to above normal by middle week.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
evening infrared loop showing western periphery of stratocu deck associated
with upper low just skirting Sullivan County. However...as low
pulls further away...expect even Sullivan Colorado to become clear
Although the gusty winds will subside somewhat overnight...a
tight pressure gradient will remain over the area...keeping an active
northwest breeze through the night. Therefore...expect little chance of any
frost and temperatures will be slow to fall due to the resulting mixing.
Current observation are around 10f degree warmer than last evening and winds
just as strong...so confidence in a widespread freeze across the
West Mountains is waning a bit. Latest hi-res NAM...lamp guidance and
sref/gefs...indicate the best chance of a freeze will be over the
highest terrain of the West Mountains...with little chance across the mountains
north of ipt. Have therefore cancelled the warning for North Clinton and
Tioga Colorado eastward.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through 6 PM Sunday/...
Sunday looks like a bright day over the area as the surface high
noses in from the northwest. Pressure gradient relaxes and temperatures aloft
moderate...as upper low slowly pulls further away. Still expect
Sunday to be a breezy day...as deepening blyr causes allows gusts
near 20kts to mix to the surface by afternoon. Ens mean 850 temperatures around 4c
should support high temperatures in the 60s under sunny skies.
Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/...
high pressure building over region Sunday night will bring another
chilly night. The light winds under the surface high may result in
some of the lowest temperatures of this cool snap with frost and/or
freeze warnings possibly needed...especially along over the Allegheny
plateau. Dry weather continues into Memorial Day as temperatures rebound
nicely to within a couple degrees of normal.
Warm front drifts across PA Tuesday into Wednesday...bringing with it our
weekly best...albeit still low chance for thunderstorms. Though just about
all locations will remain rain-free a vast majority of the time.
Best chance for a tstorm on Wednesday will be north of a line from kbfd-
kipt- krdg. This warm front will also mark the beginning of much
milder weather for the remainder of the extended forecast. Lows by
Wednesday morning will be in the 50s...with highs pushing above normal into
the upper 70s to middle 80s on Wednesday. A gradual warming trend continues
into late week as warmer air spreads in around the top of the
subtropical ridge from the west/southwest...bringing highs in the
80s for all by Friday as 850mb temperatures warm to around +16c. A
downside will be with central PA located on the southern edge of
the westerlies/northern edge of the subtropical ridge...we will
become vulnerable to upstream mesoscale convective system development as rising humidity
also begins to make inroads to the region once again.
Differences persist in the timing of any convective development
late week and into the weekend...but with a surge in middle level
temperatures by late week and weak cap on edge of ridge...each day will
bring a low chance for isolated/scattered showers/tstms. Chances for more
widespread rain increase late in the weekend heading into early
next week as pattern becomes more progressive...pushing the trough
over upper Midwest toward the East Coast.
Aviation /04z Sunday through Thursday/...
no major changes made to the 03z tafs.
Mainly clear skies overnight into Memorial Day. VFR conditions
will prevail...given very dry air in place.
With the loss of heating...the gusty northwest wind will gradually
Sunday will once again see a gusty northwest wind redeveloping. Expect
winds gusting to 15-25 miles per hour by middle to late morning.
Expect more in the way of showers and storms possible later Tuesday
into Wednesday...as a warm front moves NE across the region.
Thursday should be dry and very warm...as the warm front is north of
Tue-Wed...mainly VFR...but scattered thunderstorm impacts possible.
Thursday...mainly VFR. Some fog and haze possible early.
with diminishing winds...red flag criteria will diminish this
Sunday looks like a repeat of today with low rh's and gusty winds.
freeze warning until 8 am EDT Sunday for paz004>006-010-011-
short term...Fitzgerald/la corte
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