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Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan 654 am EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014 Aviation... //discussion... High pressure across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes will maintain clear skies and light winds through the taf period. Conditions appear too dry to promote anything other than some patchy ground fog this morning...however the very patchy and transient nature precludes the mention in any taf sites save for fnt. //Dtw threshold threats... * none. && Previous discussion...issued 305 am EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014 Short term...today and tonight High pressure over the Northern Ohio valley will move east northeast...establishing itself over the eastern Great Lakes today then over New England tonight. Despite the eastward track of the high it will maintain its influence over the central Great Lakes with extensive upper level ridging building in across the Great Lakes. As the high tracks east...the low level flow will veer from northwest to southerly...bringing 850 mb temperatures back into the +11 to +13 celsius range. Subsidence and abundant dry air will make for mostly sunny skies across Southeast Michigan today. The warmer airmass the full sunshine will allow for warmer temperatures today with highs around 70 degrees expected...about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Overnight despite light winds and mostly clear skies...lows are only expected to get down to around 50 degrees as the aforementioned warmer airmass settles in across the region. Long term... Quiescent weather through the weekend as prolonged upper ridging takes hold over the Great Lakes. Rebounding of the thermal field will be more or less complete by 12z Wednesday with 850 temperatures forecast to be at 13c, where they will essentially remain through the weekend. Full sun every day will maximize mixing, resulting in high temperatures in the middle 70s. A portion of the upstream low over the Front Range is forecast to cut back to the west as part of a wave break over the central United States. This will in turn allow an elevated bubble of warm air to settle over the area for the weekend. Continued capping is therefore expected. Slightly warmer low-level air will accompany this ridge yielding the opportunity for additional moderation of a couple degrees. Clear skies and a light gradient will support cool morning lows in the low 50s each morning. Nwp try to ease a backdoor front through the area early next week. No forcing and resident dry airmass eliminate precipitation threat. Probability of precipitation removed through day 7. Marine... Light to moderate winds will dominate for through the weekend with no significant winds on the horizon. With high pressure anchored over the eastern United States there is no threat for precipitation. && DTX watches/warnings/advisories... Michigan...none. Lake Huron...none. Lake St Clair...none. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...none. && $$ Aviation.....Kurimski short term...kurimski long term....jvc marine.......jvc You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.Weather.Gov/Detroit (all lower case).
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