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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
230 PM EST sun Dec 8 2013
Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
high pressure wedge continues across much of Georgia this afternoon.
A warm front is also situated right along the Georgia/Florida border.
Some clearing has occurred across the northern Florida
Panhandle/south Georgia...and may make it into the SW corner of the County warning forecast area.
Have tweaked the cloud cover for the next few hours...but the clouds
are expected to fill back in overnight.
Regional radar pic does show a shortwave across southeast MS/SW Alabama
enhancing convection this afternoon. This feature may help produce a
few thunderstorms across the northwest County warning forecast area later this evening.
Min/maximum temperatures for overnight and Monday will depend heavily upon the
northward progression of the warm front. Not at all confident that
the boundary will move much further north than the southern County warning forecast area
overnight. Bl winds are not conducive...plus any precipitation falling will
help re-enforce the cooler wedge overnight.
Northward progression of the warm front/erosion of The Wedge is more
likely on Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. Morning
low clouds/fog/drizzle will give way to more widespread rains as the
front moves through. Over the past few days...the models have
continued to shift the heavy rainfall axis northward. This seems
reasonable in correlation with the current regional radar pic. The
northwest corner of the County warning forecast area should pick up the most rainfall...generally
around 2 inches expected. However...isolated spots may receive
higher amounts. Have opted not to raise a Flood Watch at this time.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
medium range model trends continue to show no significant departures
from the previous run with the upper-level pattern remaining fairly
progressive and moderate in amplitude. Best cold air with this
pattern remains well north of the state...with near seasonally normal
temperatures expected. No substantial changes were made to the
existing extended forecast grids...see previous long term forecast
Previous long term discussion/Tuesday through Saturday/...
upper trough axis is pushing through the eastern third of the
country as we begin the extended...with most precipitation moving out of the
southeast by late Tuesday. GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in fairly good agreement
through the first part of the period. Elongated front should stall
across south Georgia or northern Florida which will keep slight
chance probability of precipitation across southern zones but for the most part the middle
part of the week should be dry...albeit cool with the passage of the
front /although even that is relative... expecting average to just
slightly below average temperatures so not particularly cool for this time
of year...just cooler than Monday temps/. A reinforcing wave and
mainly dry cold front pushes through Wednesday night with a colder
surface high sliding southeast from the northern plains...so Thursday
temperatures should be just a tad cooler than Wednesday.
Weak ridging builds in aloft Thursday night into Friday with an
incremental increase in temperatures in advance of a strong shortwave
over the Desert Southwest. As this moves into the Southern
Plains...it should induce surface low development in the northwest
Gulf. This is where the GFS and European model (ecmwf) begin to really diverge. The
GFS has one main system and begins overspreading precipitation across the
southeast Friday night. The European model (ecmwf) has a weak shortwave lifting
into the plains Friday night...bringing light precipitation to the
southeast over the weekend...but holds off on the main system
until after the end of the period. So...Saturday could be really
wet /as per the GFS/...or it could just be a little wet /as per
the ECMWF/. As is typical for that far out and played the middle
of the Road by painting chance probability of precipitation everywhere. Stay tuned for
high pressure ridge remains situated across much of Georgia this
afternoon. Light rain and patchy drizzle will continue into the
overnight hours...along with the low ceilings and 1-2sm visibilities. There
is also the potential for some patchy fog less than 1sm between
03z and 09z...and may have to add a tempo group later. Ceilings will
come up slightly during the afternoon tomorrow as the widespread
moderate rain/front move in.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
high confidence all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 41 59 49 57 / 70 80 50 60
Atlanta 46 59 46 53 / 70 80 60 50
Blairsville 41 50 41 52 / 100 90 70 60
Cartersville 46 54 42 50 / 90 90 80 50
Columbus 56 70 56 62 / 40 80 50 50
Gainesville 40 53 46 53 / 80 80 70 60
Macon 50 68 57 63 / 30 50 40 50
Rome 47 51 42 49 / 90 90 80 50
Peachtree City 48 63 48 55 / 60 80 50 50
Vidalia 55 73 62 70 / 20 30 30 50
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