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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
753 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013
quick update to grids. Appears coverage of thunderstorms and rain over eastern Alabama and
western Georgia lower than model forecasts. Will back off on probability of precipitation. MLCAPE
pretty Stout with values 1500-2000 j/kg and 0-6km bulk shear
around 20-30kts. Apparently forcing and localized lift is lacking.
Will continue to monitor.
Previous discussion... /issued 350 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
afternoon convection expected to increase in coverage and persist
into the evening and overnight hours as upper level trough moves
through the Mississippi Valley. Convection expected to become more
organized as associated short wave focuses development. Models a
little inconsistent with the development and/or progression of the
organized precipitation...but with increasing
instabilities...diurnal heating...and increasing shear across the
area...feel there is enough to support good chance to likely
probability of precipitation...especially across north Georgia. Have continued mention of
possible severe storms...accompanied with gusty winds and small
hail...in the grids through 02z tonight across north
Georgia...generally north of the atl metropolitan area. Have also
quickly tapered off evening and overnight probability of precipitation into Thursday
morning...with generally slight chance probability of precipitation across the area through
the day Thursday as short wave pushes into the Carolinas.
As previously mentioned...the severe threat is primarily confined to
north Georgia...though strong storms can be expected across much of
the County Warning Area. The primary concerns in severe activity will be gusty winds
to 60 miles per hour or higher...1 inch hail or higher...frequent lightning and
periods of heavy rainfall. Gusty winds and small hail are also
possible in the stronger storms.
Pressure gradient tightens Thursday afternoon and into Friday...with
winds 10 to 15 miles per hour with gusts near 20 miles per hour...especially across northern
and eastern Georgia.
For the temperatures..have generally gone with a guidance blend.
Temperatures Thursday morning are expected to be in the 60s...and
depending on the timing of the diminishing convection and clouds out
of the area...this could impact morning lows by a few degrees.
Temperatures will be back in the low to middle 80s Thursday afternoon
before cooling by Friday.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
no major changes made to the extended portion of the forecast. A much
drier airmass moves over the area Friday with dry northwest flow aloft
and surface high pressure building over the Ohio/Tennessee valleys during
the day. Gradient winds will increase getting close to Wind
Advisory criteria(20 miles per hour sustained) for some areas. Dry conditions
should continue through the weekend even with slight differences
between the GFS and European model (ecmwf). The northwest flow aloft north of the area is
expected to become more active with increased precipitation chances north
of the state...but it should stay dry across Georgia. Looks like the
better moisture finally moves in across the area by the beginning
of next week so will slowly increase chances of probability of precipitation Monday through day
7. Temperatures generally running within 5 degrees of normal
through the period except Saturday ND Sunday morning lows are
running 10-15 degrees below normal.
confidence on widespread thunderstorms and rain dropping over much of the area. Will
continue tempo thunderstorms and rain but based on trends...may have to pull this
out later this evening. Any precipitation should end or be east of forecast
points by 06z. Winds will shift to west after 07z and northwest after
sunrise. Not much chance for radiational fog unless precipitation becomes
more widespread. Have backed off on fog for most sites. Could see
some gusts to 25kts Thursday afternoon with good vertical mixing.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
low confidence on likelihood of thunderstorms and rain this evening.
Low confidence on radiational fog Thursday morning.
High confidence on all other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 65 85 59 79 / 60 20 5 0
Atlanta 66 83 59 76 / 70 10 5 0
Blairsville 61 78 54 71 / 70 20 10 0
Cartersville 64 83 57 76 / 70 10 5 0
Columbus 68 89 63 82 / 70 10 5 0
Gainesville 64 82 57 75 / 70 10 5 0
Macon 66 89 60 83 / 60 20 5 0
Rome 64 84 57 77 / 50 10 5 0
Peachtree City 64 85 58 77 / 70 10 5 0
Vidalia 68 89 65 88 / 40 20 5 0
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