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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
659 am EDT Sat may 25 2013
high pressure of Canadian origin will remain over the region
for most of this weekend providing dry weather and cool temperatures.
The high will slide east of the region by Memorial Day...with a
chance of showers returning as a warm front approaches Sunday
night. Temperatures will then rise above normal for the remainder
of next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
amplified middle/upper level flow pattern with a large ridge over the
nations middle section. This places the region in northwest flow
regime. Surface high pressure of Canadian origin...to remain across the
Great Lakes. Skies will start out mainly clear this morning with
rather chilly temperatures in middle 30s NE to the lower 40s SW. Will
continue frost advisory across portion of the NE through 9 am.
Short wave to round the upstream ridge and and then dive southeast late this
afternoon into this evening. This combined with warm air advection will lead to an
increase in mainly high level clouds with some middle level clouds
developing late into the SW counties. Will continue dry forecast today
with more favorable lift and moisture staying to our SW. Expect
todays highs to be about 10 degrees below normal...ranging from
the lower 60s NE to the middle/upper 60s SW.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
short wave rounding upstream middle level ridge to dive southeast through lower Ohio
Valley this evening. This combined with warm air advection will result in an
increase in middle level clouds across the SW. Overnight low temperatures
will range from near 40 NE to the upper 40s SW where clouds will
Weak isentropic lift develops into the far SW Sunday ahead of the
next disturbance. At this time will leave most of the day dry and
only continue to carry a slight chance of a shower across the far SW late
in the day. Temperatures will moderate some on Sunday with highs
ranging from the upper 60s NE to the lower 70s southwest.
Next disturbance to drop southeast across Ohio Valley Sunday night/Monday.
Numerical model differences exist regarding the timing and
placement of associated precipitation with this feature. European model (ecmwf) has
been most consistent taking mesoscale convective system into Ohio ahead of warm front late
Sunday night/Monday. GFS has trended toward a drier solution and NAM
takes this complex through ilns northwest ahead of the advancing warm front on
Monday. Sref mean allows precipitation chances to increase across the
entire forecast area Monday with the best threat across the west. Will trend
forecast toward a blended solution weighted toward the sref mean/European model (ecmwf) with
probability of precipitation increasing early on Monday but will keep probability of precipitation in chance
category at this time due to uncertainty. Will have highest probability of precipitation
pivot through the northwest Monday ahead of the advancing warm front. Temperatures
will continue to moderate with highs on Monday ranging from the
upper 60s northwest to the middle/upper 70s south.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
a warm front with showers and thunderstorms will lift north Monday
night and early Tuesday. Showers on the north side of the feature
will prevail but the models are showing a wide variation on when
On Tuesday...temperatures will be 10-15 degree warmer than Monday as
flow turns south and warmer air of a more climatological nature gets
pulled in. With the warmer air is higher dewpoints which will
naturally bump nighttime lows significantly. Surface high pressure
offshore and a mean building ridge over the eastern third of the
country will keep highs in the low to middle 80s and lows in the lower
60s through the remainder of next week.
Aside from rain with the frontal passage early in the forecast...things should
remain dry for the remainder of next week.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure sprawled from the Great Lakes to the Tennessee
Valley will bring VFR to taf sites. Middle and high clouds will move
in today on a northwest upper flow. Surface winds will stay under
10 knots from the northwest...shifting to northeast tonight ahead
of a disturbance and developing warm front. As clouds near the
frontal boundary thicken and lower but remain in the VFR
range...a few showers may occur in the vicinity of day luk and cvg
Outlook...no significant weather expected.
Ohio...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for ohz046-056-064-
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