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Southwest California area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
1036 am PDT Friday may 24 2013
may gray is the story for the Holiday weekend...but with decent
afternoon clearing. Gusty northwesterly winds will develop as a weak
cold front moves through the area with showers possible Tuesday.
Afternoon temperatures will remain below normal through next
Tuesday...then warming to seasonal normals by midweek.
Short term (today-sunday)...
morning soundings show some warming above 1000 feet...which should
result in a noticeable warm up in the inland valleys and mountains.
Coastal sections and valleys should also see a couple of degrees of
warming from yesterday...but with a still deep marine layer...our
current forecasted warming trend may be a little too much.
Otherwise...forecast in good shape...and sent out just a minor
update to reflect current sky/weather scenario. The main challenge for
today will be to figure out how and when the marine layer will
return back to normal depths...and what rain chances we have for
early next week.
***From previous discussion***
A broad trough of low pressure continues to linger along the West
Coast this morning. Onshore flow firmly in place will continue to
strengthen over the Holiday weekend as a series of weak cold
fronts approach the area. Strong onshore surface pressure
gradients will likely develop through Saturday...keeping may gray
tidings true. Low clouds and fog will likely sock in the beaches
over the weekend. A weak cold front washing out over the area on
Sunday may permit a little more clearing on Sunday afternoon for
the Santa Barbara South Coast and Ventura County beaches...but
another weak frontal boundary will re-enforce the onshore flow
With the weak boundary washing out over the area on Sunday...a
moderate sundowner and Interstate 5 corridor wind event could
develop between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. While still
early...an advisory level wind event could develop across the
South Coast of Santa Barbara County...through the Santa Ynez
range...and through Interstate 5 corridor Sunday.
Strong onshore gradients between klax-kdag and ksmx-kbfl may
permit for possible advisory level winds out in the Antelope
Valley through the Soledad Canyon from Saturday through at least
Sunday. Breezy conditions will also be prevalent across the
interior valleys including areas such as Paso Robles and the
Long term (memorial day-thursday)...
Another cold front approaching the region will strengthen onshore
surface pressure gradients on Memorial Day. Gale force winds
developing across the coastal waters will likely spill over into
the coastal sections. Gusty winds could develop for most areas north
of Point Conception...through the Soledad Pass and into the
Antelope Valley...and allow for a stronger sundowner wind event
on Monday afternoon and night. Elsewhere...very little
clearing...if any...will occur on Memorial Day with valley areas
likely struggling to clear as a deep marine layer and strong
onshore flow keeping a persistent marine influence and stratus
deck in place.
Probability of precipitation have been increased slightly as the front rolls through
between Monday night and Tuesday night. Due to the northwest low-
level flow...the best chance for any rainfall will occur for areas
north of Point Conception and along the northern slopes of the
mountains. With mixing ratio near 8 g/kg with the front...enough
moisture is present to possibly allow for some showers south of
Point Conception. Showers or measurable drizzle from the night
through morning marine layer stratus deck are plausible with the
A warming trend should occur for the latter half of next week as
high pressure aloft builds into the West Coast. Sundowner winds and
northerly winds through the Interstate 5 corridor are still
possible into Thursday or Friday as the northerly surface gradient
remains in place.
Middle/upper level trough of low pressure upstream will persist. Upper
level moderate southwest winds will become strong southwest after
25/20z while middle level light and variable winds become light
northwest after 25/08z. Increasing upper level moisture between
25/00-25/12z. Moderate onshore pressure gradient through 25/02z and
after 25/19z otherise weak onshore gradient. Low level cloud tops
varied from 4.2kft over the basin to 1kft or less along the central
coast this morning. Clouds will differ by plus .5kft along the
central coast to minus 1.5kft over the basin Saturday morning.
Klax...ceilings 035 becoming scattered after 24/20z then chance ceilings 013
between 25/08-25/17z then chance ceilings 022 between 25/17-25/20z.
Kbur...chance ceilings 020 after 25/09z.
Virtually certain - 95-100%
very likely - 80-95%
likely - 60-80%
chance - 30-60%
very unlikely - 20% or less
Small Craft Advisory (see laxmwwlox).
High rip current risk (see laxsrflox).
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