Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
238 am CDT sun may 26 2013 


Short term...today through Wednesday night 


Upper ridge axis will be traversing the state today. Trapped 
beneath the upper ridge is a weak disturbance which will help 
spark off scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the 
state today. Some residual showers...lingering from convection in 
NE Texas last night...are present south of Hot Springs this 
morning. Shower activity will gradually expand across much of the 
western half of the state through the late morning hours and then 
eastward through the afternoon and evening. It will be diurnally 
driven so expect rain chances will diminish quickly after sunset. 


By Monday morning the ridge axis will be east of Arkansas...and 
upper level flow will become increasingly southwest as an upper 
trough carves out a home in the western Continental U.S.. Monday and Tuesday 
should be dry with highs in the 80s. Showers and thunderstorms may 
be possible once again on Wednesday afternoon however. Several 
impulses will traverse the Southern Plains between Monday 
afternoon and Tuesday night in the southwesterly upper level flow. 
A stronger impulse will rotate through the base of the trough on 
Wednesday though. With low level return flow having been in place 
across Arkansas from Monday Onward...this disturbance may have 
enough influence to help spark some convection. Have some slight 
chances in the forecast to account for that. Any convection would 
be diurnally driven due to lack of deep or relatively close 
forcing so slight chance probability of precipitation will be confined to the afternoon 
and early evening hours. 


&& 


Long term...Thursday through Saturday 


Models are in average agreement...with the GFS a bit faster to move 
upper energy into Arkansas than the Euro. Used a blend for the forecast. 
Overall an upper ridge will be over the eastern u... a 
deepening and broad trough over the central to western U.S. On 
Thursday the deepening trough is expected to make it to the Western 
Plains...while developing a frontal boundary over the Western 
Plains. A south wind flow into Arkansas has brought moisture levels up and 
the only question for the extended forecast is how much convection 
will develop over Arkansas. Thursday will keep convection mainly over 
western to central areas. On Friday models refocus the upper energy 
back a bit west...and hence convection is more over western Arkansas. On 
Saturday...the main focus for convection will be over northwest Arkansas...while 
some lower chances central to southern Arkansas. Overall temperatures will 
be at or above normal values...except in areas where convection 
occurs. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 83 64 85 66 / 30 20 10 10 
Camden Arkansas 84 64 88 67 / 30 20 10 10 
Harrison Arkansas 81 61 82 65 / 30 20 10 10 
Hot Springs Arkansas 83 65 86 67 / 30 20 10 10 
Little Rock Arkansas 84 65 86 68 / 20 20 10 10 
Monticello Arkansas 85 66 86 67 / 20 20 10 10 
Mount Ida Arkansas 82 64 85 67 / 30 20 10 10 
Mountain Home Arkansas 83 63 83 65 / 30 20 10 10 
Newport Arkansas 84 64 85 67 / 20 20 10 10 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 84 66 85 66 / 20 20 10 10 
Russellville Arkansas 84 63 85 65 / 30 20 10 10 
Searcy Arkansas 83 64 85 65 / 20 20 10 10 
Stuttgart Arkansas 84 65 84 67 / 20 20 10 10 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...64 / long term...59