Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota 
421 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Short term...(this evening through thursday) 
issued at 413 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Surface ridging across the forecast area will fade this evening. This will 
allow the low level moisture transport across the plains to begin 
shifting into Minnesota during the overnight hours and eventually into west 
central WI on Thursday. Conditions are still quite stable across the 
County Warning Area at middle afternoon with the best Li still positive along with middle 
level lapse rates below 6 degree c/km. Although the convective 
temperature has been reached...still think that only isolated 
activity will occur into early this evening. After that...the low 
level Theta-E advection and middle level isentropic upglide begins to 
increase. The WRF solutions are quite varied on what occurs 
overnight and Thursday but the general consensus is that 
showers/thunderstorms begin to sprout during the late evening over 
eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. This activity then gradually works east-northeast 
during the overnight hours. The severe threat seems minimal at this 
time. 


On Thursday...there should be scattered showers and thunderstorms 
ongoing in the morning across all of the County Warning Area. The activity should 
diminish across west central Minnesota by afternoon as rather warm 
middle level air begins to spread in. However... the showers and 
thunderstorms may fester through the afternoon across east central 
and south central Minnesota... as well as west central WI... in the zone of 
the strongest low level wind field. Again...the threat of severe 
seems to be confined to south central Minnesota during the afternoon hours 
with a more widespread risk of severe weather spreading in from the 
Dakotas Thursday night. 


Temperatures this afternoon were certainly more Summer-like with 
upper 80s to around 90 being achieved across west central Minnesota. Highs 
on Thursday are forecast to be more in the lower to middle 80s 
across the forecast area due to more clouds/shower risk...but certainly the 
potential is there for it being a little bit warmer if the 
convective trends do not pan out. 


Long term...(thursday night through wednesday) 
issued at 413 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Confidence is increasing that several rounds of convection will 
traverse the region over the next few days bringing severe weather 
and heavy rain. A low amplitude upper level ridge currently overhead 
will shift over the eastern Continental U.S....while an upper level low 
currently centered over Puget Sound sound will gradually slide eastward 
across the High Plains of Montana and the western Dakotas. Middle/upper 
level southwest flow will set up across the upper Mississippi River 
valley with embedded shortwaves periodically triggering 
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms that will grow upscale 
into an mesoscale convective system and propagate eastward overnight as the low level jet 
veers. Meanwhile an elevated mixed layer will form daily over the 
foothills of Colorado. This airmass will advect across the region in 
the southwest flow. At the surface a trough of low pressure will 
remain nearly stationary over the eastern Dakotas. A subtropical 
high will settle across the southeastern plains...and the 
combination of the two will result in southerly flow supporting a 
continuous supply of low level moisture from the Gulf. 


The combination of the warm moist air at the surface...and elevated 
dry air aloft will create cape profiles of 2000-3000j/kg across 
Minnesota and Wisconsin. The sref 19.15 MUCAPE probabilities of 
2000j/kg are in the 90 percent across southern Minnesota from 
Thursday evening through the end of the model run Saturday evening. 
The elevated mixed layer should cap off the thunderstorm development 
by convective temperatures alone. However...a convergence along a 
frontal boundary that is forecast to lay out across the upper 
Midwest will be sufficient to break through the cap by late 
afternoon. In addition...the low level jet will ramp up like 
clockwork every night after sunset and these storms will tap into 
the elevated instability and develop into an mesoscale convective system. Bulk shear will be 
30-40kts...so organized convection is expected with mainly a wind 
and hail threat overnight. One concern is the potential for 
tornadoes with the veering wind profile along the frontal 
boundary...provided storms are able to form along this boundary and 
become surface based. Storm Prediction Center has slight risk both Thursday night and 
Friday...but as alluded to in their discussions there is still some 
uncertainty with the mesoscale features that determine convective 
Mode. 


By the weekend forecast models show the frontal boundary with an 
east/west orientation across central Minnesota into Wisconsin. The 
GFS and Gem are still farther north than the European model (ecmwf)...but the GFS 
19.12 has trended south when compared to previous runs. It also 
still has a large swath of 5+ inches of quantitative precipitation forecast...while the European model (ecmwf) and 
Gem are more in the 3-4 inch range over a slightly broader area. In 
summation...there is concern for flooding from heavy rain...with 
more details regarding this in the Hydro section of the afd. Looking 
ahead...according to the GFS 19.12 this upper level low finally moves 
into Ontario early next week...but another wave will follow quickly 
on its heels keeping rain chances through at least Wednesday. 
Meanwhile the European model (ecmwf) tries to build a ridge across the Midwest...but 
timing of this features keeps getting pushed back with subsequent 
model runs so will not buy into a drying trend anytime soon. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon) 
issued at 1250 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


The cumulus field is expanding across the Minnesota River Valley and a few 
showers/thunderstorms could occur this afternoon in this area as temperatures 
peak in the upper 80s. A few elevated showers/thunderstorms may also 
occur in west central WI as middle level instability moves through. 
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase during the 
evening for kaxn and krwf with showers and isolated thunderstorms 
moving into the Twin Cities and west central WI during the 
overnight hours. The activity will linger over eastern areas 
Thursday morning. There is no real focus on the showers and 
thunderstorms tonight/early Thursday and much will rely on the 
development over the Dakotas later this afternoon and tonight. A 
much better chance for strong to severe storms will exist Thursday 
afternoon and night across western and southern Minnesota as a frontal 
boundary inches closer to the area. Look for southeast winds from 10 to 
15 knots this afternoon with some gusts to around 20 for kaxn and 
krwf. 


Kmsp...VFR expected through the period. The best chance for 
showers and isolated thunderstorms is from late tonight through 
Thursday morning. Temporary dips to MVFR can be expected in the 
bouts of precipitation. Southeast winds this afternoon and tonight near 
10 knots. 


/Outlook for kmsp/ 


Thursday night...VFR. Chance of MVFR/tsra. Southeast winds 10 kts. 
Friday...VFR. Chance of MVFR/tsra. Southeast winds 10 kts. 
Sat...VFR. Chance of MVFR/tsra. Southeast winds 8 kts. 
Sun...VFR. Chance of MVFR/tsra. S winds 10 kts. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
issued at 413 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


A wet pattern is expected to develop across the upper Mississippi 
River valley region from late this week into early next week with 
flooding potential. A very slow moving upper air pattern will allow 
for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms late this week... 
this weekend and even into early next week. Moisture levels will be 
on the rise by Friday and the warm and humid air mass will remain 
entrenched across the region into Monday. Precipitable water values are prognosticated to 
better than 1.75 inches through the weekend...which is more than 2 
Standard deviations above normal. Ffg values are quite low with 1 
hour values around 1.5 inches across the Minnesota River Valley and south 
central Minnesota. Three hour values in these same areas are just under 2 
inches. Areas that experience thunderstorms...especially this 
weekend...will likely have rainfall rates approaching 2 inches an 
hour. Hence...it will not take much for localized flooding to occur. 


&& 


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...rah 
long term...jrb 
aviation...rah 
hydrology...rah