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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
953 am EST Sat Dec 7 2013
high pressure will build towards the region today...and drift into
northern New England on Sunday. Low pressure will approach Sunday
night and impact the northeast through the first half of next
week. High pressure will build in for the second half of the week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
forecast on track. Skies continue to clear out behind departing
low pressure. Northerly flow at 10-15 miles per hour. Highs a few degrees below
seasonable...generally upper 30s to around 40.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/...
modifying Arctic hi will build over the County Warning Area tonight. Msas analysis at
8z placed the 1044 center of the hi over eastern Montana. This will produce
cold temperatures with widespread teens expected across the interior and
Pine barrens. Strong subsidence but a few high clouds are likely
to filter in from the SW.
An increasing high overcast can be expected on sun with backing middle and
upper level flow. Clouds will lower and thicken in the afternoon. GFS time
heights show lift is fairly robust after 18z...so it will just be a
matter of how long it takes for saturation and precipitation...which based
on the 00z suite of data will be all snow with perhaps some rain
mixed in on Li and in the city. Forecast has been sped up with most
spots with chances for snow by dark. Based on the current timing of
the system...less than an inch of snow is expected by 5 PM.
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
a wintry mix expected to start the week and then an Arctic airmass
for middle to late week.
Weather through this time period will be controlled by the polar
vortex over Hudson Bay...which will rotate a series of shortwaves
through the northern US. Models in decent agreement with one of these
shortwaves phasing with a shortwave ejecting out of the western
US...resulting in a developing low pressure system affecting the
region with a wintry mix of precipitation Sunday night into Monday
morning. Based on closely clustered consensus track of a double
barreled coastal low...a transition to rain would be expected
along the coast by Monday morning. Across interior
areas...particularly northwest zones...a few inches of snow and sleet are
possible with even a brief transition to freezing rain with a bit
of cold air damming. Sref plumes indicating a mean of 3 to 4
inches across far northwest zones...with generally an inch or less for
city coast...which may be a good blend between colder European model (ecmwf) and
warmer GFS. This should make for a wintry morning commute for
interior areas...while at the city/coast roads should mainly be
wet with rain and rising temperatures.
Models are in decent agreement with a trailing cold front pushing
through the region with drying conditions late Monday...but the
front lingers close enough to the region Monday night into Tuesday
for additional waves of low pressure to possibly brush the region
with light wintry precipitation. Have maintained slight chance/chance probability of precipitation
through this time based on model spread.
Then for the middle to late week period...model indicating several
pieces of an Arctic airmass over Canada spilling into the northern
US. Currently have trended temperatures to stay below freezing from
Wednesday through Friday based on anomalously cold airmass...with
potential for temperatures to struggle to reach the upper teen/lower 20s
for highs late week if polar vortex drops into northern New
England/southeast Canada as depicted by some model guidance. Stay tuned.
Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure building into the region this afternoon through
tonight will give mostly VFR conditions. Any remaining MVFR
stratus expected to improve before afternoon.
Moderate confidence in wind forecast. Frequent gusts likely at
NYC/New Jersey terminals in range of 15-20 knots...with occasional gusts
elsewhere. Winds expected to be generally right of 310
degrees magnetic...but may briefly waver near 310 degrees this
afternoon. Winds/gusts diminish Sat aftn/eve.
Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday...
Sun night...IFR. Snow...then snow/sleet/rain near the coast and
snow/sleet/fzra across interior. Southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots...with
gusts up to 20 knots along coast.
Monday...IFR. Rain. Wintry mix across interior early...then rain.
Southeast winds 10-15 knots...becoming northwest late.
Monday night...wintry mix possible. West winds at or below 10 knots.
Tuesday...VFR. West winds at or below 10 knots.
Wednesday...VFR. West wind 15-25 knots.
marginal Small Craft Advisory conds continue on the ocean waters...but will let Small Craft Advisory
run through early afternoon. Conds may linger into this evening on
the eastern ocean waters.
Winds and seas will remain blw Small Craft Advisory levels on sun with hipres over
Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to return Sunday night into Monday morning
on the ocean and Li sound waters...possible elsewhere...ahead of an
approaching low pressure system. Winds should diminish by Monday
afternoon as the complex low pressure system works through the
region...but ocean seas should remain at Small Craft Advisory levels. Marginal Small Craft Advisory
winds are possible in the wake of the low Monday night/early
Tuesday...mainly on the ocean. The next time of concern will be
Tuesday night through Wednesday with gale conditions possible as
an Arctic front crosses the waters.
widespread significant precipitation is not expected through the day on sun.
A storm system could bring around half inch to an inch liquid
equivalent to the hydrologic service area...from late Sunday
afternoon through Monday night.
due to interference issues with the U.S. Coast Guard
emergency broadcast channel...the New York City National oceanic and atmospheric administration all hazards
weather radio station kwo35 remains out of service. The National
Weather Service is working with several U.S. Government agencies
to isolate and resolve this technical problem.
During this time...the transmitter may be returned to service
intermittently for use of the National oceanic and atmospheric administration all hazards weather radio
during potentially dangerous weather situations...for routine
weekly tests of the warning system...and to determine if the
interference issue has been resolved.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for anz353-
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for anz350.
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Copyright © 2013 Weather Underground, Inc.