Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
600 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Update... 
issued at 600 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Updated for aviation discussion. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through Sunday night) 
issued at 131 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 


The latest surface analysis depicts high pressure entrenched over 
Heartland. Surface observation indicated a northerly light breeze 
with low moisture over the area. 12z Friday upper air run analysis 
shows upper level ridging over the plains and a trough over the East 
Coast. Visible satellite indicated some cumulus forming but with very dry 
atmosphere aloft would be surprised if they can hold together and 
not mix out. 


The latest model runs indicate the upper level ridging will build 
east and into the Heartland this weekend. However the northerly flow 
will shift south this weekend as the surface high drifts east to the 
coast. This will allow some moisture to return to the area. However 
the some models indicate a southeast flow which would be slower to 
advect moisture than a south or southwesterly flow. In the middle and 
upper level models agree on southwesterly flow turning more westerly 
late in the weekend. This would better explain why the forecast 
sounding show a very moist column above 5k feet but fairly dry at 
the lower levels and the surface. This would slow precipitation saturating 
to the surface this weekend. In contrast with a warm front lifting 
through the area early Sunday hence warm air advection cant rule out 
at least a chance to slight chance this weekend. Also with k indicies 
around 30 and lifted indice's negative will include thunder. However think it 
would be closer to Sunday morning than Saturday evening. Thus plan 
to back off on timing and chance of precipitation this weekend and probably 
restrict to Sunday. However will wait for the latest models and 
collaboration for final closer to press time. The 12z Friday NAM is in 
and produced a much drier scenario than the 6z run. 


Otherwise will start a slow warm up after today bringing temperatures 
closer to normal by the beginning of the week. 


Long term...(monday through friday) 
issued at 131 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Chance of storms Monday as a warm front / warm air advection lift north across the 
area...couple with weak middle level support riding east along the 
northern periphery of a building ridge. The chances will end from 
south to north Monday night as the ridge builds and drier air works 
across the area. We are forecasting dry weather for much of the 
week. Moisture profiles suggest this should definitely be the case 
Tue/Wed. Beyond that would not be surprised to see isolated activity 
given the core of the ridge remains predominantly to our east and 
southeast. Temperatures will be rather warm. Went closer to raw 
model output and HPC guidance for high temperatures...which results in 
raising high temperatures a degree or two in the long term. Inherited min 
temperatures look good. 


&& 


Aviation... 
issued at 600 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 


VFR conditions tonight into tomorrow. Other than a few middle/high 
clouds...mainly clear skies and light winds will prevail. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Illinois...none. 
MO...none. 
In...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
&& 


$$