Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 
1128 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Short term...(this evening through wednesday) 
issued at 245 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


..isolated storms over and near the mountains and ridges...Temperatures 
edging above average again on Wednesday... 


Strong upper ridge will build eastward over Colorado through 
Wednesday. Enough moisture and instability under the ridge for 
isolated showers and thunderstorms over and near the mountains 
and ridges this evening...and again tomorrow afternoon and evening. 
With surface dewpoints generally in the 20s and 30s through tomorrow 
afternoon...primary storm threats will be lightning and wind gusts 
to around 45 miles per hour. 


After a day of temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average across the area 
today...strengthening high pressure will bring temperatures back to a few 
degrees above average for Wednesday. A pretty nice day on tap for 
southern Colorado. Lw 


Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday) 
issued at 245 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Models in good agreement through the extended with a stagnant 
pattern featuring an area of low pressure over the Pacific 
northwest and high pressure over the Central Plains. This will put 
the region under broad southwesterly flow with fire weather 
concerns and chances for convection. 


Wednesday night through Thursday evening...high pressure will move 
across the region Wednesday night with easterly low level flow 
developing through the overnight period. This should help keep 
afternoon highs on Thursday cool upper 60s to lower 70s across the 
plains. The upslope low level flow will help keep low clouds 
across the region. Models printing out light precipitation 
beginning late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. How much 
if any precipitation falls is still in question...instability is 
weak and much depends on how much moisture works into the region 
as well. Southwesterly flow aloft will begin to work into the 
Continental Divide by Thursday afternoon. This will set up mixing 
across the San Luis valley and the potential for dangerous fire 
weather concerns Thursday afternoon into the evening. This will 
need to be monitored. 


Friday through Sunday...the upper level ridge will shift east into 
the Continental U.S. As southwesterly flow aloft encompasses The Rockies. The 
main issues will be fire weather concerns and the potential for 
convection across the far eastern plains. Each afternoon...models 
are developing a dryline out near the Kansas border. Both the GFS 
and European model (ecmwf) vary with dryline position which will determine where 
convection is expected. For now have low probability of precipitation to account for 
daily afternoon dryline activity out near the Kansas border. 
Mixing is expected to increase through the weekend which will lead 
to widespread fire weather concerns for the western two thirds of 
the County Warning Area. Gusty afternoon winds and very low humidity values are 
expected...especially over the San Luis valley and I-25 corridor. 
Afternoon high temperatures are expected rapidly warm into the 
upper 80s to lower 90s for the weekend. 


Monday and Tuesday...the pattern begins to shift east with broad 
southwesterly flow across the region. Expect dry conditions across 
the area with widespread fire weather concerns each afternoon for 
all of southern Colorado. Those with outdoor grilling activities 
planned for Memorial Day should use extreme caution. Afternoon 
high temperatures will continue to be warm with upper 80s to middle 
90s across the plains. Mozley 


&& 


Aviation...issued at 1127 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Basically VFR conditions are anticipated at the kals...kcos and 
kpub taf sites into Wednesday afternoon...although 
isolated thunderstorms...especially from approximately 18z 
Wednesday to 00z Thursday will be capable of producing brief lived 
low probability MVFR to LIFR conditions at times...especially 
near kcos. In addition... the isolated thunderstorms will be 
capable of generating localized gusty winds to around 45 miles per hour at 
times Wednesday afternoon. 


&& 


Pub watches/warnings/advisories... 


Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday 
evening for coz224. 


&& 


$$