Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV 
651 am EDT Friday may 24 2013 


Synopsis... 
much cooler air turns drier and today progresses. Chilly high 
pressure takes charge tonight into Saturday. Warm front in lower 
Ohio Valley gradually shifts NE toward Memorial Day and Tuesday. 


&& 


Near term /through Saturday/... 
final cold front pushing across County Warning Area at this time...at 08z it was 
stretching from Clarksburg south to around the WV/VA/KY 
intersection. Still seeing some gusty winds along and just behind 
the front...which should subside some early this morning before 
picking back up with mixing today. Dewpoints also dropping into the 
upper 30s behind the front...and expect skies to gradually clear 
from west to east across the forecast area today as the moisture 
continues east and cool high pressure begins to build over Lake 
Michigan. Highs today will be 10-15 degrees cooler than 
yesterday...mav/met fairly close...and settled generally between the 
two. 


The cool high pressure will move over forecast area tonight...with 
an unseasonably chilly start to the Memorial Day weekend. Mav a bit 
cooler than the met...and again settled in between. This gives 
around...to just below freezing for the northern mountains...so 
opted for a freeze warning there. A bit harder to figure out where 
frost may form due to the warm...wet ground...continued breeze 
overnight...and relatively short night to boot. Decided on a frost 
advisory across northern two tiers of counties...with continued 
mention in severe weather potential statement for the rest of the County Warning Area. Despite temperatures being 
cold enough in parts of the southern mountainous counties...thinking 
it will remain mixy enough to Nix any frost formation even at 34-36 
degrees. At any rate...campers celebrating the unofficial start of 
Summer...or those with early morning soccer or baseball will wake up 
to a chilly Saturday morning. 


&& 


Short term /Saturday night through Monday night/... 
most notable changes made toward Memorial Day. Timing the eventual 
northeast movement as a warm front...of the frontal zone setting up 
over the lower Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley is a 
challenge. 


One disturbance rides from northwest to southeast overnight Saturday night into 
early Sunday...but will keep any spotty light rain to our SW-S. Did 
have more clouds over our southern counties in the form of some 
patchy middle/high clouds. Further north...Saturday night will still 
be mostly clear and chilly especially for northern and central West 
Virginia. Did include some frost in our central WV mountain 
counties for the early dawn Sunday. 


Will increase probability of precipitation on Monday...thinking the warm front will begin 
lifting northeast...at least over the Midwest...leaving US 
vulnerable downstream. How active the warm front is...is another 
dilemma. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/... 
high pressure remains in control to at least early Wednesday 
providing dry weather with a slow warming trend. 


Another middle level shortwave will move through Sunday night for low 
chance for rain showers into Monday. 


A warm front develops as it approaches the region on Monday. As a 
result...there will be a chance of showers and storms Monday and 
Tuesday...mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. 


For Saturday...temperatures should be near normal with daytime 
highs in the 70s across lowlands...with 60s across the higher 
elevations. Temperatures will continue to climb in the upper to 
middle 80s by the end of the week. Lows will ranging in the 60s. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/... 
for the most part showers have ended across the forecast 
area...with MVFR ceilings remaining across The Lowlands and low 
MVFR to IFR in the mountains. Ceilings should gradually improve to 
VFR from west to east today. Breezy to gusty winds will continue 
today out of the N/NW...decreasing some as the sun sets tonight. 
Dry air filtering in should keep widespread fog chances at Bay 
across The Lowlands tonight...and winds in the higher terrain 
should also keep any dense fog away. With that said...very chilly 
air over relative warm water in the rivers could produce some 
localized MVFR fog by early Saturday morning in river valleys. 


Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Saturday... 


Forecast confidence...high. 


Alternate scenarios: timing of dissipation of MVFR/IFR ceilings 
this morning may vary a couple of hours. 


Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency 
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information: 
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model. 
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models. 
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model. 


UTC 1hrly 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 
EDT 1hrly 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h 
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h 
bkw consistency h h M h M M h h h h h h 
ekn consistency h h M l h h h h h h h h 
pkb consistency M M h h h h h h h h h h 
ckb consistency h h h h M h h h h h h h 


After 12z Saturday... 
IFR conditions possible in fog early Saturday morning. 


&& 


Equipment... 
krlx 88d remains down. Awaiting new parts. 


&& 


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WV...frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am EDT Saturday for wvz009>011- 
019-020-028>032-039-040. 
Freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am EDT Saturday for wvz037-038- 
046-047. 
Ohio...frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am EDT Saturday for ohz066-067- 
075-076. 
Kentucky...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...ktb/mz 
near term...mz 
short term...ktb 
long term...arj 
aviation...mz 
equipment...ktb