Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas 
1156 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013 


Short term...(this evening through tuesday) 
issued at 350 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013 


Latest mesoscale analysis at 19z shows a couple of fronts in and near our 
County Warning Area. First is off to the west across central Kansas with the other 
extending from north central Oklahoma into far southern east central 
Kansas south of I-35. Moisture convergence was noted along both of 
the boundaries with the strongest along the southern counties. Bulk 
shear values are strong across much of the area with highest 
instability across southeast Kansas into east central Kansas. 
0-1 km storm relative helicity around 100 to 120 m2/s2 across 
southeast and east central Kansas. Winds are backed slightly in the 
low levels along and south of I-35. Isolated tornado threat will 
continue along and southeast of I-35 through middle evening. 


Hrrr and rap develop scattered convection across north central and 
northeast Kansas late this afternoon and evening. Also water vapor 
shows a middle level wave moving across southwest Kansas this will be 
coupled with energy rotating around the northern plains upper low 
across Nebraska and north central Nebraska this evening. Will 
continue with evening chances of thunderstorms across north central 
and northeast Kansas. Highest chances will be along and south of 
I-35. Precipitation should move off to the southeast later tonight 
as the cool front moves eastward. Lows tonight will be in the 50s. 


Tuesday should be relatively dry across much of the forecast area 
save the far southeast counties of east central Kansas. Best forcing 
will be focused further south Tuesday from Oklahoma into southern 
Missouri. Highs will be in the middle 70s Tuesday. 


Long term...(tuesday night through monday) 
issued at 350 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013 


Last shortwave lobe on the southern portions of the upper low will 
rotate southeast of the County Warning Area Tuesday night...so 
will continue with a dry forecast Tuesday night on into Thursday as 
the upper low settles into the eastern Continental U.S.. by Thursday night 
into Friday...increasing moisture and warm air advection will take 
place on the eastern side of building upper level ridge. Will 
introduce probability of precipitation again at that time and persist through the weekend 
as weak shortwaves move through the flow and into the ridge axis 
near the County Warning Area. This warrants keeping convective 
potential going through the period...although models trends are 
hinting that an amplification of the upper ridge into early next 
week may force the stronger flow aloft and higher precipitation chances a 
little further north with it. Either way...a gradual warming trend 
still looks on track as well with highs warming from mainly the 
70s Wednesday into Friday...then into the low to middle 80s for 
the weekend into early next week. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night) 
issued at 1154 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013 


For 06z tafs...VFR conditions expected tonight through Tuesday as 
the low pressure system that has impacted the region over the 
weekend into Monday finally progresses further east. A boundary 
associated with this system will continue to move eastward across 
far eastern Kansas overnight. Winds at kmhk have been out of the 
west this evening...and expect winds at ktop and kfoe to veer and 
become more westerly during the early overnight hours as that 
boundary moves east of the sites. Scattered middle/high clouds will 
persist across the area through the day on Tuesday. 


&& 


Top watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...53 
long term...63 
aviation...hennecke