HS 102

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 205 am PDT Sat may 18 2013

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

Opc 06z sfc analysis depicts a frontal sys over the pz05 wtrs with a 1027 mb high centered near 33n137w. Per recent obs...winds have been in the 10 to 20 kt range. Have no recent ascat/oscat passes.

Over the next day or so expect generally quiet conds to prevail as aforementioned front weakens while traversing the wtrs. Do not see a reason to stray from mention of gales for parts of the pz06 wtrs on sun into Mon and again Tue into Wed as ern pac high interacts with trof extending N along the W coast. Though confdc will remain at MDT given the slightly weaker gfc soln this run.

W/better agreement between the GFS and ECMWF and to a lesser extent the srn outlier UKMET...am more confdt W/appending gales to the pz05 wtrs Tue. These gales will be associated with a vigorous and anomalous cold core closed low pres sys. In fact...will likely need to add thundershower wording to the forecast for the Tue into Wed time frame in the sun eve and subsequent forecasts.

A weaker low pres sys appears to drop S into the pz05 wtrs on Wed but with little in the way of sig wx.

Seas...the 00z mww3 and ECMWF wave mdl solns are init well with seas up to 7 ft ovr the epac. Given similar soln between the two wave models with minor divergence even at day five am inclined to use the ww3 as a matter of consistency.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale Tue...MDT confdc. .Cape Lookout to Pt St George...Gale Tue...MDT confdc.

.Pz6 California waters... .Pt St George to pt Arena...gale sun and sun ngt...MDT confdc. Gale Tue and Wed...MDT confdc. .Pt Arena to pt Conception...Gale sun and sun ngt...MDT confdc. Gale Tue and Wed...MDT confdc. .Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...Gale Tue and Wed...MDT confdc. $$

.Forecaster Lee. Ocean prediction center.