... Torrential rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorms will
still be possible at times through Wednesday evening...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are currently developing west of
the Mississippi River. Although a few isolated cells may be
possible across middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening west
of I-65... the main area of showers and storms will approach middle
Tennessee after 7pm... pushing eastward through the evening and
overnight hours. Some of these storms could become severe with
damaging winds and large hail possible. Although a very low
threat... an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out tonight... with
the best chance occurring west of I-65 further south near the
Alabama border. Again... this chance appears low... and will not
resemble the storms that affected Oklahoma yesterday.
At this time..it appears that any thunderstorm complexes that move
into middle TN will be weakening somewhat overnight... perhaps
completely dissipating by Wednesday morning. This will leave room
for our region to become unstable yet again... with strong to
severe storms possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main
threats with those storms on Wednesday will be large hail and
damaging winds... mainly along and east of I-65. In addition... any
storms that occur throughout the next 24-36 hours will be capable
of producing torrential rainfall... and if storms train over the
same areas isolated flash flooding may become possible.
1042 am CDT Tue may 21 2013
... Torrential rain and strong to severe storms possible...
Areas of thunderstorms have already developed across the mid
Mississippi Valley area and the Southern Plains. One of these
thunderstorm complexes will move into middle Tennessee from late
morning through the afternoon hours. The main threats with these
storms will be torrential rainfall and wind gusts to 45mph.
Scattered storms will continue through this afternoon and
evening... and an isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.
However... the best chance for strong to severe storms will be
mainly towards dawn Wednesday as severe storms develop over the
Southern Plains this afternoon and March eastward overnight. A
line of strong to severe storms is expected to approach middle
Tennessee very late tonight into the early morning hours on
Wednesday... with strong winds and torrential rainfall being the
main threats. Isolated large hail cannot be ruled out... and at
this time... a tornado threat looks very low. It should be
emphasized that any thunderstorms that affect middle Tennessee
today... tonight and Wednesday will not nearly be as significant as
what occurred yesterday in Oklahoma.
The best chance for severe weather will be between roughly 3am and
8am near the Tennessee River... with storms weakening as they move
further east. A threat for strong storms will still exist
throughout the day Wednesday before the storm system pushes
through the region.