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Last Updated: 5:27 PM GMT on May 13, 2012
— Last Comment: 12:49 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
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In a little under three weeks, the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will officially get underway.
With neutral - warm conditions expected to prevail in the ENSO and a weak El Nino likely to form by the end of the year, most forecasters are predicting an average to slightly above average season in terms of the number of named storms. However, several indicators suggest that those systems which form are more likely to impact land, due to the likelihood of formation along the western perimeters of the basin [that is, within the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, or along the eastern seaboard of the US, west of 60N]. Additionally, instability appears likely to be greater this year than last, at least potentially giving rise to more long-lived and powerful systems. Thus, while this season may not be as busy as last year's, the potential for "drama and trauma" in the basin is as high as it ever is. Taking a retrospective look at the last ten years of Atlantic tropical cyclones, it appears obvious that The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands are very much in the thick of things track-wise. Since 2002, the archipelago been impacted by at least 15 TCs, at least 6 of them hurricanes and at least 3 of those majors. Year/ Storm/ Status/ Area impacted 2003/ Mindy/ TS/ Turks and Caicos 2004/ Frances/ MH/ Turks and Caicos, Bahamas 2004/ Jeanne/ MH/ Bahamas 2005/ Katrina/ TS/ Bahamas 2005/ Rita/ TS/ Bahamas 2005/ Wilma/ MH/ Bahamas 2005/ Alpha/ TS/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos 2007/ Noel/ TS/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos 2008/ Hanna/ H/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos 2008/ Ike/ MH/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos 2010/ Bonnie/ TS/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos 2010/ Nicole/ TS/ Bahamas 2010/ Tomas/ TS/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos 2011/ Bret/ TS/ Bahamas 2011/ Emily/ TS/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos 2011/ Irene/ MH/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos That's why Bahamians and Turks Islanders should not relax their guard. Instead, now is a great time to run through the hurricane preparation list, including checking out the shutters and the roof, as well as beginning to stock the hurricane supply chest. When the season begins, I will be updating this blog as often as I can, especially during events which threaten our area.
Category 2 Hurricane Irene as it approaches the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas. Notice an eye is becoming visible.Irene, the ninth storm and first hurricane of the 2011 hurricane season, is poised to deliver a major blow to the island archipelago of The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. The NHC issued the following positon statement at 11 a.m. this morning:SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------...
5:08 p.m. EDTAt 5 p.m. today, the Bahamian government posted watches for the Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Island in advance of the arrival there on Thursday of Tropical Storm Emily. Emily, the 5th named storm of the 2011 season, is currently located near latitude 15.8°N and longitude 65.4°W or about 185 miles south of San Juan, Puerto Rico. This position is also about 600 miles southeast of Providenciales and Inagua. Emily is expected to move genera...
The second named storm of the 2011 season formed today in waters near Walker's and Grand Cay in the northern Bahamas. The low, which formed along a frontal boundary that exited the US coast, drifted south towards the Bahamas and became more organized as the day progressed, and was declared Tropical Depression Two at 5 p.m. today. After further investigation by a Hurricane Hunter flight, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret at 8 p.m.BULLETINTROPICAL S...
7 p. m.Deadly Hurricane Tomas, with a devastating track record from its trip through the Eastern Caribbean last weekend, is set to strike Inagua and Mayaguana and to bring hurricane force winds to the Caicos Islands later this evening.At 5 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Tomas was located near 20.3°N 73.8°W, or about 70 miles southwest of Inagua. It was moving to the northeast at about 14 mph. At that rate, the eye of Tomas is likely to cross Inagua at about 10 p.m. tonight,...
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