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Last Updated: 8:44 PM GMT on May 22, 2013
— Last Comment: 1:48 PM GMT on May 22, 2013
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This liveblog will be updated with the most recent information at the bottom as the day goes on and severe weather develops.
8:45am For the first time since the June 29th Derecho we have a Moderate Risk for severe weather here in Central Ohio. The risk is real and there's a potential for an event as destructive as the derecho, with high wind storms, hail, and more potential power outages. The SPC has a large swath of Moderate Risk forecasted for today, from Ohio to New York City:  It's rare that we have such an explosive setup as we see today, where late summer heat and humidity clash at the perfect time of day with a convective force like a strong cold front. But today is perfect. The Setup All of Central Ohio is under a Heat Advisory, with temps reaching the mid 90's and dewpoints in the low 70's. You can feel it outside. Like the atmosphere just want to explode. But as I've written before, gasoline isn't dangerous unless you have a match. An approaching cold front diving down from the upper Great Lakes is the match today. As the front approaches, strong southwesterly flow will bring in very hot and humid air, raising instabilities to extreme levels. The mid level CAPE will reach its peak right around the time the front approaches the area.  This afternoon's setup Storms should initiate around 1pm this afternoon, and I imagine show up in a line from roughly south of Indianapolis to around Lima, OH. These storms should become linear rather quickly. Supercells will not be the norm, but rather the exception. However, IF there is a stray cell that develops ahead of the line, it will be severe, and it will have the potential to rotate. A couple of models have this becoming a broken segment that will develop a secondary line behind the main line and sort of take a due easterly movement and effect the southern portion of our area. If that does develop, expect some decent rainfalls in those areas. I'll update later as storms initiate... 11:12am Adding to the fuel, our Heat Advisory has now been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning. 12:36pm Our first MD of the day suggests initiation may occur further east and multiple lines may develop as well. This would certainly make for a major severe weather outbreak for the area:  As of 12:26pm Some of the wording used in the discussion tells us that the atmosphere may be even more unstable than originally suspected... "WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S F...NET RESULT WILL BE PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE STRENGTHENING TO 3500-5000 J/KG RANGE OVER BROAD SWATH OF WARM SECTOR" The discussion also mentions a nearly unidirectional wind profile, so tornadoes are unlikely. However, because all of the other ingredients are there, it only takes the slightest shear to produce a weak tornado in this environment. Expect a watch to be issued soon, probably a Tornado Watch just to be safe. 1:33pm Right on time, storm initiation to our north and west, and the Watch... although not a Tornado Watch, just the standard:  In effect until 10pm This is a gigantic watch, and given the way the front is laid out it had to be. The small cells that have developed ahead of the main area of forcing are pretty quick moving, somewhere between 40 and 50mph. Soon we should see an area behind these small cells begin to form a nice little squall line. And then the potential for yet another round behind that. 2:45pm Round 1 is looking to be single cell storms. No line's formed yet...  6:15pm Round one ended up turning in to a pretty impressive line as it moved through the Columbus area, setting off warnings and producing high winds and heavy rains.  What I don't have much confidence in is a significant round two. Storms developed behind the main line and are now speeding through southwestern Ohio, but the chance of any more developent, let alone severe development, seems pretty small. This severe outbreak is over and it wasn't nearly as bad as it could have been. Severe Weather Stats: Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 7 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 11 Tornado Watches: 3 Tornado Warnings: 0 Flood Watches: 2 Flood Warnings: 1 Heat Advisories: 8 Excessive Heat Warnings: 6 Red Flag Warnings: 1
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