Civicane49's WunderBlog

Last Updated: 2:33 AM GMT on May 25, 2013 — Last Comment: 2:53 PM GMT on May 25, 2013

	Invest 93E may not become a tropical cyclone

Posted by: Civicane49, 8:26 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

Invest 93E is no longer organized, since strong easterly wind shear has been affecting it. Satellite image depicts that the disturbance’s deep convection, with shower and thunderstorm activity, is moving away from the disturbance’s center to the west. This indicates that 93E is becoming disorganized and strong easterly shear is affecting the disturbance. In fact, CIMMS analysis and SHIPS revealed that 93E is being affected more than 25 knots of easterly shear. 93E is situated several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja California.

Figure 1. RGB satellite image of Invest 93E. Image courtesy: NOAA's Satellite Services Division (SSD).

Forecast for 93E
93E is expected to move westward or west-northwestward over the next 24 to 48 hours. After that, it could turn slightly west-southwestward by the large high pressure ridge, north of 93E. The disturbance has an unlikely chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days, due to high shear. In fact, the SHIPS model forecasts the shear over 93E to increase and may reach over 30 knots by the next 36 to 48 hours. After that, however, the shear is anticipated to gradually relax to less than 20 knots by the next 84 hours. This may allow 93E to reorganize and strengthen. However, by that time, sea surface temperatures are forecasted to be marginal, and the air humidity is anticipated to be drier. Therefore, I have some doubts for 93E of eventually becoming a tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 93E 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by the next 48 hours.

Civicane49

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1. Civicane49 11:45 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
93E down to 0%. Well, it looks like 93E will dissipate. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM PDT MON JUN 11 2012 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 62 Comments: 3934

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