Civicane49's WunderBlog

Last Updated: 4:43 AM GMT on May 17, 2013 — Last Comment: 9:02 AM GMT on May 17, 2013

	90E moving west-northwestward, not a threat to land

Posted by: Civicane49, 9:45 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

In the eastern Pacific, Invest 90E continues to organize as it moves west-northwestward at 10 mph. The system is located roughly 785 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although satellite imagery shows that the tropical disturbance has not changed much over the past several hours, the system shows some signs of organization; 90E is also maintaining deep convection near the center over the past several hours. The disturbance is in favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures at 28°C, low wind shear at 10 knots, and moist environment. These conditions should allow 90E to continue organizing and become a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this disturbance a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two days.

Forecast for 90E
The SHIPS model forecasts conditions to remain conducive during the next four days. During the next 96 hours, sea surface temperatures are forecasted to remain warm over 26°C, wind shear is expected to remain low, and atmospheric environment is predicted to remain moist. These conditions should allow the system to strengthen at least a tropical storm. After four days, however, conditions are forecasted to become unfavorable with cool sea surface temperatures and significant increase in shear. These conditions should weaken the system. The system is likely to become a remnant low by the time it is in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility. 90E is anticipated to continue moving west-northwestward over the next five days as the high pressure ridge is expected to build to the north of the disturbance. All of the models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track. The tropical disturbance is not expected to threaten any land areas; however, it might bring little increase in showers to Hawaii as a remnant low by the middle of next week.

Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Invest 90E. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

Elsewhere in the tropics
In the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, there is an area of a weak low pressure system producing thunderstorm activity to parts of Florida. The disturbance is expected to move northward and into the Florida Panhandle by tomorrow. Environmental conditions are not favorable for this system to develop. The NHC is giving this tropical disturbance a near 0% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, the system is forecasted to continue bringing heavy rains and some gusty winds to parts of Florida in the next 24 hours or so.

The GFS model predicts that a future tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic would develop a weak low pressure by the next five to seven days. The model forecasts another future tropical wave with a weak low pressure in the same area by the next seven to nine days. However, other models do not forecast these to become significant tropical cyclones at this time.

Civicane49

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1. wxchaser97 9:52 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
thanks Civicane, 90e should be a td soon. Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6802

2. PedleyCA 11:11 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Nice.. Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2147

3. nigel20 11:25 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Thanks! Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4538

4. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:54 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Thanks C49. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

5. MAweatherboy1 11:55 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Thx Civicane. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6366

6. GeorgiaStormz 12:10 AM GMT on July 24, 2012
thx Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7163

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