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Last Updated: 10:57 PM GMT on April 16, 2013
— Last Comment: 2:30 PM GMT on April 17, 2013
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Good afternoon and welcome to my blog update for Saturday, June 26th, 2011. The tropics are finally starting to wake up with a system worth watching in the Caribbean, though extremely disorganized and very weak. Surface pressures are not falling at this time and develop is extremely low in the next 24 hours, however this is the system that the models were showing, were I say because the NOGAPS and CMC dropped it, so did the GFS and ECMWF for a while but are now back onboard with a weak TS. This system should bring heavy rains for the Yucatan and head into the Bay of Campeche on Monday.
 (area of disturbed weather off the Yucatan coast) Run down of the models. There's not strong model support with this system, at least not compared to what we had last update. The GFS shows little development on the 12z, but begins to develop this system by Wednesday into a 1005 mb Tropical Storm then moving it inland. The other day, the GFS completely dropped this system and showed on development, and has slowly gotten onboard once again. The CMC and NOGAPS fail to develop this system. The ECMWF however is the exact opposite with what we were dealing with and is now the most aggressive model with this system, making it also a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall on the Gulf coast of Mexico. This is an interesting turn of events by the models, while it hasn't completely dropped the system like they did all at once for 94L they all at one point yesterday did not show development of this system, and here they are again with the two most reliable models showing any real development of this. I have a suspicion though that there will be increased model support from the CMC and NOGAPS as this system heads into the Bay of Campeche, which means that development chances go up. None of the models show this becoming a significant system, which is good news because that means there won't be a hurricane bearing down on someone anytime soon.  (12z GFS 72 hours, weak TS in the Bay of Campeche)  (00z ECMWF 96 hours, moderate TS making landfall in Mexico) Possible analog storms When one looks at storms, its natural to look back in the past and see what storms where similar to this setup. The setup is similar still to Hurricane Alex, where you had a weakness being closed off by a ridge over the Gulf and forcing the system westward into the Mexican coastline. One storm I think however will be very similar to this, if it does develop that is in terms of track and intensity, is Tropical Storm Bret from 2005, a weak low pressure center developed right before hitting the Yucatan and eventually span up in the Gulf of Mexico and become a weak TS right before landfall, but did not cause any real damage. This path and intensity is what the ECMWF is showing, and if this does develop will probably be what this storm looks like. So, Bret is probably our best analog storm when it comes to intensity track, and time frame.  (Tropical Storm Bret from 2005) My predictions for track and intensity. This system in the event it does even develop, will not become anything more than a 45 mph Tropical Storm. I will to all who are used to the term 'to eat crow', I will eat crow if that happens. This system is monsoonal, so it will take a while to get its act together and once it does it will be on Wednesday right before landfall so we could see a TS out of it right before it hits then quickly dissipating over the high mountains of Mexico. Track will be probably towards Tampico, Mexico or right around there. This system is not a threat for anything but heavy rains and some squalls for the areas threatened. After this, what's next? Our next opportunity for a named storm could come next week even, but there's little to indicate so on the models. I'd watch for trough splits in the GOMEX however as the setup is good for that to occur. The upward MJO will hang around in our basin for at least another week or so, providing increased convection so its probable we could see another storm in 10 days or so. Again, there's nothing on the models currently to indicate this but its a possible situation. Another place to watch for another storm will be again, in the Bay of Campeche where you could see monsoonal development again take place. Models have also been hinting at this. We'll see what happens! CybrTed
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