Still watching the Caribbean 6/26/11

By: CybrTeddy , 4:44 PM GMT on June 26, 2011

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Good afternoon and welcome to my blog update for Saturday, June 26th, 2011. The tropics are finally starting to wake up with a system worth watching in the Caribbean, though extremely disorganized and very weak. Surface pressures are not falling at this time and develop is extremely low in the next 24 hours, however this is the system that the models were showing, were I say because the NOGAPS and CMC dropped it, so did the GFS and ECMWF for a while but are now back onboard with a weak TS. This system should bring heavy rains for the Yucatan and head into the Bay of Campeche on Monday.

(area of disturbed weather off the Yucatan coast)

Run down of the models.
There's not strong model support with this system, at least not compared to what we had last update. The GFS shows little development on the 12z, but begins to develop this system by Wednesday into a 1005 mb Tropical Storm then moving it inland. The other day, the GFS completely dropped this system and showed on development, and has slowly gotten onboard once again. The CMC and NOGAPS fail to develop this system. The ECMWF however is the exact opposite with what we were dealing with and is now the most aggressive model with this system, making it also a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall on the Gulf coast of Mexico. This is an interesting turn of events by the models, while it hasn't completely dropped the system like they did all at once for 94L they all at one point yesterday did not show development of this system, and here they are again with the two most reliable models showing any real development of this. I have a suspicion though that there will be increased model support from the CMC and NOGAPS as this system heads into the Bay of Campeche, which means that development chances go up. None of the models show this becoming a significant system, which is good news because that means there won't be a hurricane bearing down on someone anytime soon.

(12z GFS 72 hours, weak TS in the Bay of Campeche)


(00z ECMWF 96 hours, moderate TS making landfall in Mexico)

Possible analog storms
When one looks at storms, its natural to look back in the past and see what storms where similar to this setup. The setup is similar still to Hurricane Alex, where you had a weakness being closed off by a ridge over the Gulf and forcing the system westward into the Mexican coastline. One storm I think however will be very similar to this, if it does develop that is in terms of track and intensity, is Tropical Storm Bret from 2005, a weak low pressure center developed right before hitting the Yucatan and eventually span up in the Gulf of Mexico and become a weak TS right before landfall, but did not cause any real damage. This path and intensity is what the ECMWF is showing, and if this does develop will probably be what this storm looks like. So, Bret is probably our best analog storm when it comes to intensity track, and time frame.

(Tropical Storm Bret from 2005)

My predictions for track and intensity.
This system in the event it does even develop, will not become anything more than a 45 mph Tropical Storm. I will to all who are used to the term 'to eat crow', I will eat crow if that happens. This system is monsoonal, so it will take a while to get its act together and once it does it will be on Wednesday right before landfall so we could see a TS out of it right before it hits then quickly dissipating over the high mountains of Mexico. Track will be probably towards Tampico, Mexico or right around there. This system is not a threat for anything but heavy rains and some squalls for the areas threatened.

After this, what's next?
Our next opportunity for a named storm could come next week even, but there's little to indicate so on the models. I'd watch for trough splits in the GOMEX however as the setup is good for that to occur. The upward MJO will hang around in our basin for at least another week or so, providing increased convection so its probable we could see another storm in 10 days or so. Again, there's nothing on the models currently to indicate this but its a possible situation. Another place to watch for another storm will be again, in the Bay of Campeche where you could see monsoonal development again take place. Models have also been hinting at this.

We'll see what happens!

CybrTed

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145. Grothar
12:26 AM GMT on June 27, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


But land isn't hindering the circulation, it is helping strengthen it, like what is seen with weak systems such as this. The center is definitely on the Yucatan peninsula at this time, no doubt.


Well, that is the last time I tell you anything important. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27906
143. CybrTeddy
12:08 AM GMT on June 27, 2011
We just gotta wait and see what this thing does over the Yucatan, it will show its true colors on Tuesday or so.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
142. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:06 AM GMT on June 27, 2011
Quoting Grothar:
Even though it looks like it is forming farther North, this was called "throw off" in the old days. When a system interacts with land, it disrupts any circulation, be it low or mid-level. Many times the convection does not stay around the center, but can get "thrown-off" to the North or West. I think that is what we are seeing. The main system is still moving WNW. This is the area that will likely be tagged an Invest soon. If the pressures do drop, it will try to wrap more moisture around it. These early systems are very disorganized and take time to develop.


But land isn't hindering the circulation, it is helping strengthen it, like what is seen with weak systems such as this. The center is definitely on the Yucatan peninsula at this time, no doubt.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34083
141. Grothar
12:04 AM GMT on June 27, 2011
Even though it looks like it is forming farther North, this was called "throw off" in the old days. When a system interacts with land, it disrupts any circulation, be it low or mid-level. Many times the convection does not stay around the center, but can get "thrown-off" to the North or West. I think that is what we are seeing. The main system is still moving WNW. This is the area that will likely be tagged an Invest soon. If the pressures do drop, it will try to wrap more moisture around it. These early systems are very disorganized and take time to develop.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27906
139. CybrTeddy
12:03 AM GMT on June 27, 2011
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

true maybe they were about to put 30% but thought it over to see if this trend holds or even get better organized.Will soon find out.


Maybe at 2 am.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
137. Tropicsweatherpr
11:59 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Interesting radar from Cancun.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15595
135. CybrTeddy
11:55 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Like I said Kimberlain pretty much just guessed the first line of the TWO.I think Stewart would've put 30% chance cause based on its apparance it has right now.


Well, maybe they're waiting to make sure this is a trend. You dont want it to fall apart right after you up the odds.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
132. MississippiWx
11:52 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What are the chances of this system becoming a tropical depression?

A. 0% - 30%
B. 40% - 70%
C. 80 - 100%
D. Not participating

Q; What are the chances of this system becoming a tropical storm?


A. 0% - 30%
B. 40% - 70%
C. 80 - 100%
D. Not participating

Q: What are the chances of this system becoming a hurricane?

A. 0% - 30%
B. 40% - 70%
C. 80% - 100%
D. Not participating




I'd say TD: 40%, TS: 20%, and Hurr: 2%

Alright, I'm really out this time. Peace.

And you have mail!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10285
130. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:50 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Q: What are the chances of this system becoming a tropical depression?

A. 0% - 30%
B. 40% - 70%
C. 80 - 100%
D. Not participating

Q; What are the chances of this system becoming a tropical storm?


A. 0% - 30%
B. 40% - 70%
C. 80 - 100%
D. Not participating

Q: What are the chances of this system becoming a hurricane?

A. 0% - 30%
B. 40% - 70%
C. 80% - 100%
D. Not participating


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34083
128. CybrTeddy
11:48 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx:


Did you get my email?


Yup, that's just JFV for you.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
127. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:48 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Okay go ahead!


I second that.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34083
126. MississippiWx
11:47 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I know exactly why this circle was so elongated.

1.) Because there is shower and thunderstorm activity all along the Yucatan

2.) The main reason, is probably because they didn't know where the center was.

As for the shear, 20 knots is only moderate and lowering, I have no idea why they would right that, knowing that shear will probably be 10-15 knots by this time tomorrow.


The circle the NHC made basically covers the area of highest vorticity. It makes sense.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10285
125. MississippiWx
11:47 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
he forgot to see the wind shear as well oops 20 kts isnt that unfavorable


It's marginal.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10285
124. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:46 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting elninosucks:
what? unfavorable on monday? shear on monday is supposed to weaken and why is the center so far south! this is an outrage!


I know exactly why this circle was so elongated.

1.) Because there is shower and thunderstorm activity all along the Yucatan

2.) The main reason, is probably because they didn't know where the center was.

As for the shear, 20 knots is only moderate and lowering, I have no idea why they would right that, knowing that shear will probably be 10-15 knots by this time tomorrow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34083
122. MississippiWx
11:43 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Okay go ahead!


Did you get my email?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10285
121. CybrTeddy
11:43 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Getting there.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
118. CybrTeddy
11:40 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx:


No, I meant like I could forward you the email. I don't want to post it here anyway.

Anyway, my guess is that the NHC keeps this at 20% at the TWO.


Okay go ahead!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
117. MississippiWx
11:39 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Alright, I'm out for a while guys. Great chat.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10285
116. CybrTeddy
11:39 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
I didn't know 20 knots was that unfavorable.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
115. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:38 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Still at 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LITTLE...IF ANY...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE. HOWEVER...
THESE WINDS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34083
114. MississippiWx
11:37 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Nah, I don't think it goes with the rules to post WU mail. You can sum it up though.


No, I meant like I could forward you the email. I don't want to post it here anyway.

Anyway, my guess is that the NHC keeps this at 20% at the TWO.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10285
113. CybrTeddy
11:37 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LITTLE...IF ANY...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE. HOWEVER...
THESE WINDS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
112. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:37 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
You can tell by the intense blow-ups of convection on infrared satellite that land interaction is helping, not hindering, the development of this system.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34083
111. CybrTeddy
11:36 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx:
Haha, wow. JFV sent me a WU mail. If you guys want to read it, let me know. It's pretty good.


Nah, I don't think it goes with the rules to post WU mail. You can sum it up though.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
110. MississippiWx
11:35 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Haha, wow. JFV sent me a WU mail. If you guys want to read it, let me know. It's pretty good.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10285
109. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:34 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


9pm I think?


Ok, thanks.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34083
108. CybrTeddy
11:31 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What times do we need to go to the ATCF site for invest monitoring?


9pm I think?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
107. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:30 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
What times do we need to go to the ATCF site for invest monitoring?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34083
106. CybrTeddy
11:29 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
After all I've seen this afternoon, if it were me, I'd give the area a 30% circle.


Same, we'll find out in 15 minutes or so.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
105. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:28 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
After all I've seen this afternoon, if it were me, I'd give the area a 30% circle.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34083
103. CybrTeddy
11:27 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Slowly but surly..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
102. CybrTeddy
11:24 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx:
The lowest pressure I could find was 29.69 at 18.65N 91.80W. That's about 75 miles to the west of where I'd say a center is trying to form.

29.69 = 1005mb.


Pretty low, which is impressive for such a disorganized system. Will be VERY interested in seeing what the 8 pm TWO is.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
101. Grothar
11:24 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Was wondering what you though we could be in for July, if your into futurecasting lol.


No, I don't usually futurecast, but this year looks like it is already getting active. Simply because of the SST's, I think we could see earlier depression development at least. With the strong High in place, It is not unusual for a lot of Gulf and Western Caribbean activity to occur in July. I would say we could at least one named storm in July. I mean 2005 was an unusual year, but last year it happend.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27906
100. MississippiWx
11:23 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
The lowest pressure I could find was 29.69 at 18.65N 91.80W. That's about 75 miles to the west of where I'd say a center is trying to form.

29.69 = 1005mb.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10285
99. CybrTeddy
11:22 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting Grothar:
Someone forgot to buy something at the store, so guess who has to leave here and go get it??? :):) The first words I learned in English, were Yes, Dear. Now I know why. Be back in a few minutes.


LOL!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
97. Grothar
11:19 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Someone forgot to buy something at the store, so guess who has to leave here and go get it??? :):) The first words I learned in English, were Yes, Dear. Now I know why. Be back in a few minutes.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27906
96. MississippiWx
11:19 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
Anyone have pressures for the Yucatan? Maybe we can see if surface pressures are beginning to fall.


You can look at surface pressure from the PWSs I posted above ^^^
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10285
95. CybrTeddy
11:19 PM GMT on June 26, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, Sir! What do you need?


Was wondering what you though we could be in for July, if your into futurecasting lol.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938

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