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Last Updated: 10:57 PM GMT on April 16, 2013
— Last Comment: 2:30 PM GMT on April 17, 2013
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Good afternoon and welcome to my tropical update for Saturday, July 16th, 2011. Today's update will focus a surface trough associated with a weakening front off of Florida that the National Hurricane Center/NRL has just dubbed Invest 98L. 98L is currently located at 300N, 791W with a fairly high surface pressure of 1014 mb. This is because 98L is embedded within a high pressure area, causing surface pressures to seem high. In truth, if it wasn't it would probably be around 1010 or 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds aren't impressive either with 25 mph winds, and upper level conditions are marginal at best. 98L also has no model support for tropical development, but the models have been hinting at this setup for a few days now.
 (fig 1. NRL image of nearly declared invest 98L) Model indications and personal forecast. There really isn't anything strong from the models, but they all show increased vort associated with 98L and lower surface pressures. This is going to be drifting perhaps nearly stationary over the Gulf Stream, which is well above average for this time of year. The latest ASCAT run and obs from Florida and surrounding areas indicate there is a developing surface low, but very limited convection.  (fig 2. SST images as of current.) Often, with trough split disturbances developing once they begin to split from the trough they look quite sad in satellite presentation and a lot of them just die out without further development, we'll see if that's the case. The GFS sends this into Florida by about 72 hours, so its going to have more than likely enough time over water if its going to try to do something, which is where it gets iffy. One problem is also that the fact this has a closed low, none of the models with the exception of the non-tropical NAM which does attempt to develop this showed that in the initial conditions, which means we're going to have to take the models with a grain of salt this time around which is exactly what the NHC is doing. The NHC right now has planned for a recon into the system tomorrow.  (fig 3. GFS showing a low off the Florida coast by 72 hours) CybrTed
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