Last Updated: 2:40 AM GMT on May 14, 2013
— Last Comment: 11:59 PM GMT on May 21, 2013
94L 95L 96L
Posted by: Grothar, 8:27 AM GMT on August 20, 2012
How this will affect the course o 94L will be interesting. The FIM7 model earlier runs had 94L moving into the Caribbean and moving WNW. Almost all the models have consistently been moving 94L into the Caribbean since yesterday morning. The little more Southerly track should not have come as a surprise to anybody, since there was pretty good model agreement and discuss of the other Lows preceding 94L since it left Africa. Most of these discussions were dismissed.
So far, the 00z models move 94L towards Florida. It is possible a track could miss a lot of land interaction and be in the Southern Bahamas.
Other models seem to agree at this time as well
However, the intensity forecasts will remain tricky until the system consolidates and how much land interaction will occur.
The FIM8 model, which had originally been moving 94L to the NW too early is now coming into agreement with the FIM7 which I think I had a better handle on 94L from the beginning.
This last image is still a good possibility at this time.
96L looks pretty good already. Although the early tracks move it more to the WNW and NW. As we all know things change.