U.S. had most extreme spring on record for precipitation

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on June 14, 2011

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Nature's fury reached new extremes in the U.S. during the spring of 2011, as a punishing series of billion-dollar disasters brought the greatest flood in recorded history to the Lower Mississippi River, an astonishingly deadly tornado season, the worst drought in Texas history, and the worst fire season in recorded history. There's never been a spring this extreme for combined wet and dry extremes in the U.S. since record keeping began over a century ago, statistics released last week by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reveal. Their Climate Extremes Index (CEI) looks at the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top 10% or bottom 10% monthly maximum and minimum temperatures, monthly drought, and daily precipitation. During the spring period of March, April, and May 2011, 46% of the nation had abnormally (top 10%) wet or dry conditions--the greatest such area during the 102-year period of record. On average, just 21% of the country has exceptionally wet conditions or exceptionally dry conditions during spring. In addition, heavy 1-day precipitation events--the kind that cause the worst flooding--were also at an all-time high in the spring of 2011. However, temperatures during spring 2011 were not as extreme as in several previous springs over the past 102 years, so spring 2011 ranked as the 5th most extreme spring in the past 102 years when factoring in both temperature and precipitation.


Figure 1. Nine states in the U.S. saw their heaviest precipitation in the 117-year record during spring 2011, with record-breaking precipitation concentrated in the Pacific Northwest and along the Ohio River. Seven other states had top-ten wettest springs. Texas had its driest spring on record, and New Mexico and Louisiana had top-ten driest springs. When compared with Figure 2, we see that this is a classic winter La Niña pattern, but at extreme amplitude. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. La Niña events since 1950 have brought wetter than average conditions to the Pacific Northwest and Ohio River Valley in winter, and drier than average conditions to the South in both winter and spring. Spring 2011 (Figure 1) had a pattern very similar to the classic winter La Niña pattern (left image in Figure 2.) Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.


Figure 3. The percent area of the Contiguous U.S. experiencing much above average heavy 1-day precipitation events in spring 2011 hit a record high, nearly 16%. The 102-year average is 9%. The previous record of 15.5% was set in 1964. Heavy springtime 1-day precipitation events in the U.S. have been increasing since 1960, in line with measured increases in water vapor over the U.S. due to a warming climate. See also Figure 4 below. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 4. Percent increase in the amount falling in heavy precipitation events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2007, for each region of the U.S. There are clear trends toward more very heavy precipitation events for the nation as a whole, and particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Climate models predict that precipitation will increasingly fall in very heavy events, similar to the trend that has been observed over the past 50 years in the U.S. Image credit: United States Global Change Research Program. Figure updated from Groisman, P.Ya., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004: Contemporary changes of the hydro-logical cycle over the contiguous United States, trends derived from in situ observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5(1), 64-85.

What caused this spring's extremes?
During a La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific, when the equatorial waters cool to several degrees below average, abnormally dry winter weather usually occurs in the southern U.S., and abnormally wet weather in the Midwest. This occurs because La Niña alters the path of the jet stream, making the predominant storm track in winter traverse the Midwest and avoid the South. Cold, Canadian air stays north of the jet stream, and warm subtropical air lies to the south of the jet, bringing drought to the southern tier of states. La Niña's influence on the jet stream and U.S. weather typically fades in springtime, with precipitation patterns returning closer to normal. However, in 2011, the La Niña influence on U.S. weather stayed strong throughout spring. The jet stream remained farther south than usual over the Pacific Northwest and Midwest, and blew more strongly, with wind speeds more typical of winter than spring. The positioning of the jet stream brought a much colder than average spring to the Pacific Northwest, with Washington and Oregon recording top-five coldest springs. Spring was not as cold in the Midwest, because a series of strong storms moved along the jet stream and pulled up warm, moist Gulf of Mexico air, which mixed with the cold air spilling south from Canada. The air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico was much warmer than usual, because weaker winds than average blew over the Gulf of Mexico during February and March. This reduced the amount of mixing of cold ocean waters from the depths, and allowed the surface waters to heat up. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico warmed to 1°C (1.8°F) above average during April--the third warmest temperatures in over a century of record keeping (SST anomalies were a bit cooler in May, about 0.4°C above average, due to stronger winds over the Gulf.) These unusually warm surface waters allowed much more moisture than usual to evaporate into the air, resulting in unprecedented rains over the Midwest when the warm, moist air swirled into the unusually cold air spilling southwards from Canada. With the jet stream at exceptional winter-like strengths, the stage was also set for massive tornado outbreaks.


Figure 5. A La Niña-like positioning of the jet stream, more typical of winter than spring, brought much colder air than normal to the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest during the spring of 2011. Washington and Oregon had top-five coldest springs, and near-record snowfalls and snow packs were recorded in portions of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. South of the mean position of the jet stream, top-ten warmest springs were recorded in Texas, New Mexico, and Louisiana. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Was climate change involved?
Whenever an unprecedented series of extreme weather events hit, it is natural to ask how climate change may be affecting the odds of these events, since our climate is undergoing unprecedented changes. This spring's unusual precipitation pattern--wet in the Northern U.S., and dry in the South--does fit what we'd expect from a natural but unusually long-lived winter La Niña pattern (Figure 2). However, it also fits the type of precipitation pattern climate models expect to occur over the U.S. by the end of the century due to human-caused warming of the climate (though shifted a few hundred miles to the south, Figure 6.) This drying of the Southern U.S. and increased precipitation in the Northern U.S. is expected to occur because of a fundamental shift in the large scale circulation of the atmosphere. The jet stream will retreat poleward, and rain-bearing storms that travel along the jet will have more moisture to precipitate out, since more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere. The desert regions will expand towards the poles, and the Southern U.S. will experience a climate more like the desert regions of Mexico have now, with sinking air that discourages precipitation. A hotter climate will dry out the soil more, making record intensity droughts like this year's in Texas more probable. So, is it possible that the record extremes of drought and wetness this spring in the U.S. were due to a combination of La Niña and climate change. It is difficult to disentangle the two effects without doing detailed modelling studies, which typically take years complete and publish. One weakness in the climate change influence argument is that climate models predict the jet stream should retreat northwards and weaken due to climate change. Indeed, globally the jet stream retreated 270 miles poleward and weakened during the period 1970 - 2001, in line with climate model expectations. Thus, a stronger and more southerly jet stream over the U.S. during the spring is something we should expect to see less and less of during coming decades.


Figure 6. The future: simulated change in precipitation during winter and spring for the years 2089 - 2099 as predicted by fifteen climate models, assuming we continue high emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide. Confidence is highest in the hatched areas. Compare with Figure 7, the observed change in precipitation over the past 50 years. Image credit: United States Global Change Research Program.


Figure 7. U.S. annual average precipitation has increased by about 5% over the past 50 years, but there has been pronounced drying over the Southeast and Southwest U.S. Even in these dryer regions, though, heavy precipitation events have increased (see Figure 4.) Thus, rainfall tends to fall in a few very heavy events, and the light and moderate events decrease in number. Image credit: United States Global Change Research Program. Data plotted from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushc n/.

Keep in mind, though, that climate models are best at describing the future global average conditions, and not at predicting how climate change might affect individual continents--or at predicting how rare extreme events might change. Major continent-scale changes in atmospheric circulation are likely to result over the coming few decades due to climate change, and I expect the jet stream will shift farther to the south in certain preferred regions during some combination of seasons and of the natural atmospheric patterns like La Niña, El Niño, and the Arctic Oscillation. For example, there has been research published linking recent record Arctic sea ice loss to atmospheric circulation changes in the Arctic Oscillation that encourage a southwards dip of the jet stream over Eastern North America and Western Europe during late fall and winter. Until we have many more years of data and more research results, we won't be able to say if climate change is likely to bring more springs with a circulation pattern like this year's.

One thing we can say is that since global ocean temperatures have warmed about 0.6°C (1°F) over the past 40 years, there is more moisture in the air to generate record flooding rains. The near-record warm Gulf of Mexico SSTs this April that led to record Ohio Valley rainfalls and the 100-year $5 billion+ flood on the Mississippi River would have been much harder to realize without global warming.

I'll have a new post by Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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"TEPCO and the Japanese government intend to address the problem by raising the maximum allowed. "


that seems fair. I wish the government would raise the recommended weight for my height. That would make me feel better.

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Quoting padirescu:
Can't wait to see the battles between FL and TX fighting over who deserves to get the first moderate system with a CONUS track due to the droughts.

That's funny .. based on Dr M .. Texas needs it a lil bit more
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Quoting hydrus:
Florida might get some...


Got rain here last night for about 5 minutes. The lightening created more fires than the rain put out.
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863. SLU
Quoting DDR:

Good morning pottery
Looks like it just missed you.
1.08 inches fell here,lovely morning...
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.
The T-Wave that is passing through here has not produced a lot of rain.
Not surprising, given the set-up.
Lovely sun-set yesterday, and a pretty dawn.
Expecting showers and temps in the low 90's.

Looking forward to watching the Luna Eclipse at moonrise today.
Moon was like a spotlight last night.
Jumbies must have been out Partying 'til all hours....


Trinidad & Tobago radar

Make sure the rain guage is on standby ...
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No Cesium in my Teasium!!
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Quoting padirescu:
Can't wait to see the battles between FL and TX fighting over who deserves to get the first moderate system with a CONUS track due to the droughts.


WE do here in Florida ... :D
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Florida might get some...
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Can't wait to see the battles between FL and TX fighting over who deserves to get the first moderate system with a CONUS track due to the droughts.
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Meanwhile, back in Japan--

--Five tea manufacturing plants in Shizuoka prefecture have been asked to stop shipping green tea because levels of radioactive cesium are above the legal limit. Shizuoka, it should be noted, is 400 kilometers south of Fukushima. Link

--Whalers working the waters off of northern Japan are finding radioactive cesium in their catch. The radiation is far below the maximum safe limit, but it's there nonetheless. Link

--More and more workers at the plant are being found to have levels of internal radiation far above the maximum allowed. TEPCO and the Japanese government intend to address the problem by raising the maximum allowed. Link

--Scattered radioactive hotspots are being discovered around Japan, causing chaos and confusion. Link

--TEPCO now plans to build a giant shed around and over unit #1 to keep airborne radiation at bay. Link

That's it for this morning. And now, as you were, folks...
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855. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.
The T-Wave that is passing through here has not produced a lot of rain.
Not surprising, given the set-up.
Lovely sun-set yesterday, and a pretty dawn.
Expecting showers and temps in the low 90's.

Looking forward to watching the Luna Eclipse at moonrise today.
Moon was like a spotlight last night.
Jumbies must have been out Partying 'til all hours....

Good morning pottery
Looks like it just missed you.
1.08 inches fell here,lovely morning...
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The GFS is looking interesting this morning....Link
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Good Morning......From this AM's NCEP discussion; translation?....The ITCZ is starting to rise a bit towards the Carribean beginning the transistion, and general alignment, between the sub-equatorial ridge and TUTT cells just to the North favoring one of the cyclogenisis areas in the Eastern Carribean going into July (assuming that sheer levels drop sufficiently in July in this region):

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
656 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

AT UPPER LEVELS THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CURRENT PATTERN PERSISTING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ENVELOP THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WHILE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS RIDGE INTENSIFIES OVER MEXICO AND A TUTT DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE DIGGING TROUGH...IN-TURN...WILL THEN ALLOW
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE GFS SHOWS A MID LEVEL CAP ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. AT LOW LEVELS.....

Link
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If that cluster stayed offshore, conditions would allow for some development..
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all. That same wave pottery is talking about will move thru PR tonight.Let's see if .40 falls to break the June all time record of 10.96 inches.

I hope you get your 0.4" just for the record.
And then I hope you have a quiet Hurricane Season!
The list of overall Record Breaking Weather Events in June will be a long one, if we take the World into account.
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Good morning to all. That same wave pottery is talking about will move thru PR tonight.Let's see if .40 falls to break the June all time record of 10.96 inches.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
Good Morning all.
The T-Wave that is passing through here has not produced a lot of rain.
Not surprising, given the set-up.
Lovely sun-set yesterday, and a pretty dawn.
Expecting showers and temps in the low 90's.

Looking forward to watching the Luna Eclipse at moonrise today.
Moon was like a spotlight last night.
Jumbies must have been out Partying 'til all hours....
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good Morning from Buda Tx. Weather Experts are saying the High Pressure over Texas will break down, this is great news. Alot of Texas will have a chance of a shower, not a drought helper but we will take a 20 percent chance of anything positive. Moisture could come from the Gulf or from the North with a weak front, this is what I am hearing and reading. Don't give up hope. Have a great day everyone.


I haven't given up hope yet. :) Yesterday my NWS said we might get some rain next week from a front that the ECMWF was showing. But it didn't look as strong on the model this morning. Everything else I've read seem to be hoping for some gulf moisture to kick off some rain. Guess we'll see. And you have a great day too. :)
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846. IKE
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah the lake levels are insanely low around here. I've never seen it like this. And my family's been going fishing in these area lakes all my life. There are bridges over sand dunes. Where you used to could see water everywhere there's dry land as far as the eye can see. And very few boat ramps have enough water to launch. Some have no water. The camp grounds are closing to prevent even more fires. It is sad. And sometimes the drought busters are just as bad too. :(
Sorry. I hope it changes soon. Just don't see much hope the next 7 days and models that do show something wind up trending to show little to nothing.

First chance of rain for Houston is next Tuesday....

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 97.

................................................. .................................................. ................

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah thats what those downcasters at the NWS said too. Lol. It wouldn't be until next week if anything happens rain wise.

As far as the tropics, there's an interesting read on Crown Weather this morning. Link
Good Morning from Buda Tx. Weather Experts are saying the High Pressure over Texas will break down, this is great news. Alot of Texas will have a chance of a shower, not a drought helper but we will take a 20 percent chance of anything positive. Moisture could come from the Gulf or from the North with a weak front, this is what I am hearing and reading. Don't give up hope. Have a great day everyone.
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Quoting IKE:

Problem is....that does nothing for you or me as far as rain. If anything both scenarios may hurt our chances of moisture,

I think this pattern is stuck through most of the rest of June. Sorry...you should see how far water levels are down here:(


Yeah the lake levels are insanely low around here. I've never seen it like this. And my family's been going fishing in these area lakes all my life. There are bridges over sand dunes. Where you used to could see water everywhere there's dry land as far as the eye can see. And very few boat ramps have enough water to launch. Some have no water. The camp grounds are closing to prevent even more fires. It is sad. And sometimes the drought busters are just as bad too. :(
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843. IKE

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah thats what those downcasters at the NWS said too. Lol. It wouldn't be until next week if anything happens rain wise.

As far as the tropics, there's an interesting read on Crown Weather this morning. Link
Problem is....that does nothing for you or me as far as rain. If anything both scenarios may hurt our chances of moisture,

I think this pattern is stuck through most of the rest of June. Sorry...you should see how far water levels are down here:(
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The smoke here in Naples is imparting a nice almost Mars-like reddish tint to this morning's sunrise:

sunrise on Mars?

On the plus side, we're only to reach the low to mid 90s today. So that's something...
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Quoting IKE:
I don't see anything promising for the northern gulf coast for at least a week.

As far as the tropics....I don't see anything for the next 7, to maybe 10 days. I think June may wind up 0-0-0. Not unusual though.

Signed....Mr. Downcaster.


Yeah thats what those downcasters at the NWS said too. Lol. It wouldn't be until next week if anything happens rain wise.

As far as the tropics, there's an interesting read on Crown Weather this morning. Link
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840. IKE
I don't see anything promising for the northern gulf coast for at least a week.

As far as the tropics....I don't see anything for the next 7, to maybe 10 days. I think June may wind up 0-0-0. Not unusual though.

Signed....Mr. Downcaster.

................................................. .................................................. .................

LOL....New Orleans and Lake Charles forecasts show no chance of rain through next Tuesday.
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Morning AQUA I'm still up. Hubby works the night shift. I got no more kids at home. So its just easier this way.
And I get donuts. Lol. On the off days the donut places close before we wake up. :)

And Ike, I wouldn't doubt if every wave all summer is dry as a bone. GFS has a low tracking toward TX again but every bit of precip is over LA. Lol. Link
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838. IKE
From Miami.....

MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WE WILL CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL ENHANCE THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BECOME WARMER IN THE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

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837. IKE
AtHomeInTX.....I hate to post this...but, here goes.....Key West....

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A STEADY EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW
REGIME CONTINUING ACROSS THE KEYS. GUIDANCE HAS NOW BACKED OFF
QUITE A BIT WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED TO AFFECT THE KEYS DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
LATEST RUNS NOW KEEPING THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE LARGELY SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE GFS ACTUALLY
BRINGS A VERY DRY AIRMASS DOWN INTO THE KEYS ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
DEEP LAYERED CUTOFF DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PROSPECTS NO LONGER APPEAR AS PROMISING FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND AS THEY DID PREVIOUSLY...BUT MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS DO SHOW A
MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SMALLER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE
LOWER/MID LEVELS STARTING ON SATURDAY. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD NOT BE
ESPECIALLY STRONG DURING THIS TIME...SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
WE WOULD HAVE A GENERALLY UNCAPPED SOUNDING FOR THE MOST PART.
MODERATE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW IS TYPICALLY NOT A PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE REGIME FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA
HOWEVER...WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINES...MAINLAND
OUTFLOWS...OR CUBAN OUTFLOWS TO BRING RAIN TO THE KEYS. FOR NOW...
WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OF 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
MEX MOS GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90...AND
LOWS REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80 DEGREES OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL
AREAS.
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hi Ike, Nea, AtHome.

atHome- aren't you up early?

When does summer come? I'm so tired of these silly spring temps. (S-flag: ON) We're gonna have triple digits at night too if this keeps up.
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011 Link

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAKENING TUTT REMNANTS EXTEND FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA SW TO ERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WILL BE FORCED SE NEXT 24 HOURS TO YIELD A
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS ALL BUT SW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN
WITH A SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE SE INTO NW PORTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN CARVE OUT NEW UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM NRN
FLORIDA TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY AT
SFC...WEAK 1015 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF
WITH REMNANTS OF OLD TROUGH THROUGH STRAITS AND NW BAHAMAS
DRIFTING SE. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN...WITH 15-20 KT OF S-SE WINDS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SFC
HIGH AND RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU THEN
WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 29N BY SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE ERN CARIB WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT WITH
N PORTIONS OF THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE STRAITS AND WRN CUBA
SAT AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH IT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

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Quoting aquak9:
Good morning or good day, whenever it is.

Last night's moon was a dark amber caution light due to so much smoke in the air. Still smokey this morning, looks like fog but it's not.

Possibility of storms a little north of me (NE Fla) today and tomorrow; hoping that translates to sea-breeze activity that will push the smoke away.

It's still spring, isn't it?

Good morning, morning crew.

The smoke mixed with tonight's darkest and longest-lasting lunar eclipse in years should make for a particularly eerie moon this evening.

Lots of 100s all along the southern tier states again today and all this week. No surprise; since February 11--the day the spring thaw began--there have been 20,137 record daily high or high minimum temps set across the United States, and just 9,791 record daily lows or low maximums.

Toasty, no?
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Good morning. I'm ignoring all of the same ol', same ol' in the NWS discussions. And will just hold onto the long range. Lol. About as positive as I can get right now. :)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BEGIN TO FORECAST A
SLOW BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A POTENTIAL RETURN FOR DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
429 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

BUT SOME FAINT RAYS OF HOPE ON THE HORIZON AS EXTENDED MODELS
KEEP HINTING AT PERHAPS SOME INCREASED RAIN CHCS AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE E/NE...THIS
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A RATHER OPEN GULF AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. WHETHER THIS DOES LEAD TO INCRE-
ASED POPS...WE SHALL SEE. 41


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832. IKE
Another hot one here in the Florida panhandle...

Today

Mostly sunny in the morning...then partly cloudy with a 30
percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs
around 100.
Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon.
West winds 5 to 10 mph. Heat index readings 104 to 109.
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Good morning or good day, whenever it is.

Last night's moon was a dark amber caution light due to so much smoke in the air. Still smokey this morning, looks like fog but it's not.

Possibility of storms a little north of me (NE Fla) today and tomorrow; hoping that translates to sea-breeze activity that will push the smoke away.

It's still spring, isn't it?
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(blows raspberry)
We have time to observe it!

Lunar eclipse Tomorrow!




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Quoting KoritheMan:

I actually don't do blog updates unless there is at least an invest.


That is right....I stand corrected....will check back in a few days then...lol
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Let me check your blogs.....I bet I know where you think it is heading!! :-)D
I actually don't do blog updates unless there is at least an invest.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 603 Comments: 21838
Quoting KoritheMan:

Climatology favors that area getting drawn more northward than what that run is indicating. I don't think the loop is likely.


You may be right. Just from what I've seen of June Texas storms these have all originated in the BOC or SW GOM. Not very scientific just my notes. One day I'll have notes on all the storms. If I ever get through Texas. Got a lot of free time. Lol.

1871 TS-TS2, SWGOM, 6/8-6/10, GALV
1886 H2-HURRICANE1, SW GULF, 6/13-6/16, SETX
1902 H1-HURRICANE 2, BOC, 6/21-6/29, CORPUS CHRISTI
1929 H1-H1, BOC, 6/27-6/29, PORT ARANSAS
1954 H1 ALICE, BOC, 6/24-6/26. NE MEX
1957 H4 AUDREY, BOC, 6/25-6/29, TX/LA BORDER
1958 TS ALMA, BOC, 6/14-6/16, NE MEXICO
1960 TS 1, BOC, 6/22-6/29, CC
1968 TS CANDY, BOC, 6/22-6/26, CC
1993 TS ARLENE, BOC, 6/18-6/21, SOUTH PADRE ISLAND





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

Climatology favors that area getting drawn more northward than what that run is indicating. I don't think the loop is likely.


Let me check your blogs.....I bet I know where you think it is heading!! :-)D
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Back to model watching on this slow night. GFS still showing something in the BOC starting around 240-ish hr.It acts like it wants to come up to Texas then turns around and goes back to the BOC at the end of the run. That would be our luck. Long as it stays weak we'll take the rain. Link
Climatology favors that area getting drawn more northward than what that run is indicating. I don't think the loop is likely.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 603 Comments: 21838
Looks like the NOGAPS has Florida covered. Well most of it.
Link
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Would be my pleasure maam....and good morning!!!

You guys are in worse shape than we are for rain....will definately shake my hips for TEXAS!!


LOL! Much appreciated!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Good morning Trauma. Lol @ Cartman. My "Towely" tshirt says it all..."I have no idea what's going on." Hehe. Wow, showing how well read I am. ;) Hope the rain dance works. If it does could you please teach it to some Texans who actually have enough rhythm to pull it off. Lol. I'm hopeless on the dance floor.


Would be my pleasure maam....and good morning!!!

You guys are in worse shape than we are for rain....will definately shake my hips for TEXAS!!
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Wow!! This season mybe worse than 2008 I've been hearing. I checked our coastal SST by LA,MS,AL coast and we are at 84 degrees close to 85. It's only june too!!! SMH!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back to model watching on this slow night. GFS still showing something in the BOC starting around 240-ish hr.It acts like it wants to come up to Texas then turns around and goes back to the BOC at the end of the run. That would be our luck. Long as it stays weak we'll take the rain. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting traumaboyy:
Good morning night shift!! Fresh Coffee Ready!!

Since there is no real tropical stuff to talk about....I will spend the night doing my favorite Rain Dance!!


Good morning Trauma. Lol @ Cartman. My "Towely" tshirt says it all..."I have no idea what's going on." Hehe. Wow, showing how well read I am. ;) Hope the rain dance works. If it does could you please teach it to some Texans who actually have enough rhythm to pull it off. Lol. I'm hopeless on the dance floor.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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