Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog 

Hey Grother~ That came through here pretty dry. Just a trace of rain. Looked like virga, radar had far more rain over me than was falling. Had a high of 81ºF.

Quoting Skyepony:
Hey Grother~ That came through here pretty dry. Just a trace of rain. Looked like virga, radar had far more rain over me than was falling. Had a high of 81ºF.

We didn't get a drop. Not a leaf moving. Very dry.

Quoting SPLbeater:


evenin grothar

What are you doing up at this hour?

Quoting Grothar:


What are you doing up at this hour?

well...i dont really know. what time is it where u at?

Quoting SPLbeater:


well...i dont really know. what time is it where u at?

12:56 AM

Only 162 days until B-day.

Quoting Grothar:


12:56 AM

ah, so your not where i didnt think you were. :D

Bedtime for me. Talk with ya later Gro!

Quoting Grothar:
Only 162 days until B-day.

On Groundhogs Day you and I will be the same age.

Gee, that is scary. :)

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ETHEL (07-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 19 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Ethel (994 hPa) located at 14.7S 67.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 to 40 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 to 70 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 15.8S 65.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.6S 64.4E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 20.5S 63.0E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 24.0S 62.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

An irregular 2 degrees diameter central dense overcast with very cold top associated has maintained over the system since 2100 PM UTC. Microwave imagery show an improve organization of the low level circulation center with a developing small inner core. Most available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards track over the next 2 days then a southwards recurving motion. On this track the system should move over or near Rodrigues Island Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Within the next 48 to 60 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve day after day. The system should close to it speak intensity as it passed near Rodrigues.

Vertical northwesterly wind shear is forecast to weaken rapidly the system and make it lose tropical characteristics at the end of The period.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Natural disasters: Quakes the biggest killer

Earthquakes killed more people last year than all other types of natural disasters combined, new United Nations figures show.

A report by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction shows 20,943 people died in earthquakes last year, out of a total 29,782 people killed by 302 disasters.

Most of the quake toll was from the massive 9.0 magnitude earthquake and resulting tsunami that claimed the lives of 19,846 people in Japan last March.

However, it was the 182 deaths from the February 22 Christchurch earthquake that hit hardest for New Zealand.

UNISDR chief Margareta Wahlström said many major cities such as Christchurch needed to ready themselves for the possibility of more destructive earthquakes.

"In 2010 we saw this phenomenon as well when over 220,000 people died in Haiti, which had not been hit by an earthquake of such strength for almost 200 years."

"Unless we prepare for the worst then many earthquake-prone urban areas around the world are destined to see even greater loss of life in the future as more and more people move to cities."

Floods were the second biggest killer of 2011, claiming more than 5,000 lives.

Storms killed more than 3,000 people, while extreme temperatures claimed 231 lives compared to the annual 10-year average of 14,731 between 2001 and 2010.

Asia accounted for 45 per cent of disasters and more than 85 per cent of the total death toll.

Meanwhile, Europe experienced very few disasters and impacts in 2011 with the lowest numbers killed, numbers affected and economic damages since 1990.

Quoting RTLSNK:


On Groundhogs Day you and I will be the same age.

Gee, that is scary. :)

Shh. Don't give away his age.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 08-20112012
10:00 AM RET January 19 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 08R (999 hPa) located at 17.4S 40.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 17.8S 40.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 18.1S 38.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 18.3S 37.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.7S 38.2E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================

The system is close to moderate tropical storm strength. Latest satellite imagery depict an overall improving organisation with recently some convectively bands wraping in the northern semi-circle. Europeans numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) and also AVNO are in good agreement for a globally southwestwards forecast track up to 36 to 48 hours on the northern edge of a subtropical ridge and then a southeastwards track with a steering flow directed by the equatorial ridge to the northeast.

Over this track, environmental conditions are very favorable for regular further development with a good low level inflow on the both sides, weak vertical wind shear, well sustained by two upper level outflow channels, heat potential is strong over 29-30C sea surface temperature.

Within the next 48 hours, the system should get closer of the Mozambican coasts near the Quelimane region ... With a potential direct impact that could not be excluded at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on Tropical Depression 08R will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..

Quoting JRRP:

Almost 4 days without any quake in the area and we get a 5 in RD....

dont know if we can conclude that inactivity in the region accumulates energy that will be released later..

The snow is really piling up in the Pacific/Mountain Northwest now. A few examples:

Ketchum, ID: 38.5"
Stanley, ID: 32.9"
Mt. Hood Meadows, OR: 50"
Timberlane, OR: 45"
June Lake, WA: 31"

Rain has been heavy, too, of course:
Salem, OR: 4.47"
Corvallis, OR: 4.21"

...and wind. Lots of wind:
Livingston, MT: 71 mph
Wheatland, WY: 77 mph
Bend, OR: 66 mph

There's also some deep cold to the east and ahead of that storm, with temperatures in northern North Dakota expected to reach -20 and lower, with wind chill readings near -50 in a few locations. Most areas will be back to, or above, normal by the weekend.

Low temperature in Macon, Georgia this morning was 30.1*F at 0630 hours.(edited just now at 0632)

No snow yet. :)

"Thank you.

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Our mission is to empower and engage people to document the sum of all human knowledge, and to make it available to all humanity, in perpetuity. We care passionately about the rights of authors, because we are authors.

SOPA and PIPA are not dead: they are waiting in the shadows. What's happened in the last 24 hours, though, is extraordinary. The Internet has enabled creativity, knowledge, and innovation to shine, and as Wikipedia went dark, you've directed your energy to protecting it.

We're turning the lights back on. Help us keep them shining brightly."

Read more

morning all. I see that 08S came to be while i was sleeping.

Tropical Cyclone Ethel(07S)

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 990.3mb/ 55.0kt

Raw T# 3.6
Adj T# 3.6
Final T# 3.5

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
------------------------------------------------- ---

Tropical CYclone Eight(08S)

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 995.8mb/ 45.0kt

Raw T# 3.5
Adj T# 3.3
Final T# 3.0

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

MId TN Forecast low for tonight is 25.. for tomorrow night it is 50 with the daytime highs in the 60's! This has got to be one of the mildest winters around here in a long time..

27 here in D.C.Luckly the winds are calm and not like they were yesterday.See ya around.

Quoting 1911maker:
Can some one provide the energy (watts/sq meter, or any measure, I can convert) in IR spectrum between 1 and 10 microns that hits the Midwest (surface, not top of atmosphere) on a clear day in July?

A graph would be best.

My searching is not working. I found the total energy in the full spectrum, but I need the 1 to 10 micron range of the spectrum.

You're not finding much because you're asking for a very specific detail that would normally require research level type equipment.

That being said, it's something you should be able to calculate and get a decent estimate of from available data sources. For example, there are multiple solar insolation maps that will show you the overall watts/m^2 for places in the US. For Minnesota in July, the value seems to be around 5.7 kWh/m^2/day.

The typical breakdown of solar energy hitting the surface is about 52.5% IR, 44.3% visible, and about 3.2% UV. So this rough calculation shows that in July Minnesota (on average) gets about 2.99 kWh/m^2/day of IR radiation total.

But that is only showing direct solar contribution. A chunk of visible light is also converted into long-wave IR radiation so the surface IR radiation actually is higher. This also covers the IR spectrum, not just the the range of wavelengths you specified.

Very back-of-the-envelope, but should get you in the ballpark.

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Well technically it is due to more incoming energy - the energy imbalance is from greenhouse gases absorbing and re-emitting longwave radiation. It's not more incoming energy relative to the entire earth system, but it is more incoming energy relative to the earth's surface, where warming must occur due to this imbalance.

"Trapping heat" as in the greenhouse metaphor is a nice way to describe it for the public or those not heavy into the science disciplines, but it's not exactly an accurate way to describe the enhanced greenhouse effect.

I was referring to incoming energy in the context of direct solar insolation, as the poster seemed to be implying. I also try to keep things simple because not everyone is familiar with/wants to hear about the actual dynamics involved. :)

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ETHEL (07-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 19 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Ethel (991 hPa) located at 16.1S 66.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 to 50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 to 70 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 17.4S 65.3E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 18.6S 64.6E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 21.4S 63.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.5S 62.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

After a slight decrease in the overall cloud pattern during midday, the cloud pattern is now improving again. AMSUB microwave imagery also suggest that the small inner core structure is still improving.

Ethel made a harp south southwest turn, a little bit sooner than previously expected. Consequently, the forecast track moved eastwards in agreement with latest ECMWF output. Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards to south southwestwards track over the next 2 days then a southwards re-curving motion. On this track the system should move over or near Rodrigues island early Saturday morning.

Within the next 36 to 48 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve day after day. The system should close to it speak intensity as it passed near Rodrigues.

Vertical northwesterly wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures and interaction with the westerlies is forecast to weaken the system and make it loose tropical characteristics at the end of the period.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNSO (08-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 19 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Funso (994 hPa) located at 17.8S 40.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.3S 39.3E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 18.7S 38.3E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 18.6S 37.2E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 18.5S 38.6E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================

Cloud pattern has consistently improved along the day with very deep convection flaring and wrapping around the center. Latest high resolution imagery depict an hint of a warm spot in the central dense overcast. Consequently, intensification could be stronger than said in the current forecast.

Europeans numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) are in good agreement for a globally southwestwards forecast track up to 36 to 48 hours on the northern edge of a subtropical ridge and then a eastwards to southeastwards track with a steering flow directed by the equatorial ridge to the northeast before a new westwards turn at the end of the forecast period under the steering influence of a
subtropical ridge that should build south of the channel.

Over this track, environmental conditions are very favorable for regular further development with a good low level inflow on the both sides, weak vertical wind shear, well sustained by two upper level outflow channels, heat potential is strong over 29-30C sea surface temperature. The intensification process is held off between 36 to 72 hours as the system should move little near the Mozambican coasts. This slow motion over the same waters could be an inhibiting factors.

Within the next 48 hours, the system should get closer of the Mozambican coasts near the Quelimane region ... With a potential direct impact that could not be ruled out at this time...inhabitants of this sector should closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..

We only got 1/4 inch of rain from yesterdays front, here in Orange Park.

Quoting Skyepony:... Besides, says NASA, they weren't using the radar anyway.

The Russians have a long history of blaming other things for thier spacecraft failing. If they admit they screwed up, they'd be off to Siberia, as it were.....

Moderate earthquake rattles northeastern Iran- strongest in 10 years

Posted on January 19, 2012
January 19, 2012 – IRAN – An earthquake hit north-eastern Iran on Thursday but there were no immediate reports of casualties or major damage. The magnitude 5.5 earthquake hit at 4:05pm (local time) about 10 kilometers outside the city of Neyshabur, which is some 70km away from the holy city of Mashhad, the official IRNA news agency said. “There have been no reports of casualties yet,” Red Crescent official Ali Asghar Hassanzadeh told the semi-official Fars news agency, adding that windows of some houses in Neyshabur had been shattered. The IRNA news agency said the quake lasted seven seconds and was the strongest felt in the region in 10 years. Many parts of Iran are prone to earthquakes. At least seven people were killed in a magnitude 6.5 quake that jolted the south east on December 20 in 2011, the same region where a huge tremor killed some 31,000 people in the city of Bam in 2003. -ABC

Re: #260 --- I thought Dr. Masters had recently published a blog stating that the drought and subsequent famine in Africa had killed more people than any other disaster in 2011.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Minneapolis did not set a record for the latest first zero reading in the winter after all. 0 degrees at 11 p.m. there.

January 18th record is tied but still stands.

haven't checked up on official numbers or the record yet, but i'm pretty sure it was sub-zero temps they were tracking on this one. perhaps a -1F still occurred before midnight.

Quoting Minnemike:
haven't checked up on official numbers or the record yet, but i'm pretty sure it was sub-zero temps they were tracking on this one. perhaps a -1F still occurred before midnight.

NWS says the temp fell to -1 at 11:25 PM, meaning that the record was merely tied. (The official time will be marked as 11:59 PM.)

Now we have to see how many subzero days there are in total in the Twins and elsewhere (St. Cloud, Mankato, Eau Claire, Albert Lea, etc.)

Quoting Xyrus2000:


You're not finding much because you're asking for a very specific detail that would normally require research level type equipment.

That being said, it's something you should be able to calculate and get a decent estimate of from available data sources. For example, there are multiple solar insolation maps that will show you the overall watts/m^2 for places in the US. For Minnesota in July, the value seems to be around 5.7 kWh/m^2/day.

The typical breakdown of solar energy hitting the surface is about 52.5% IR, 44.3% visible, and about 3.2% UV. So this rough calculation shows that in July Minnesota (on average) gets about 2.99 kWh/m^2/day of IR radiation total.

But that is only showing direct solar contribution. A chunk of visible light is also converted into long-wave IR radiation so the surface IR radiation actually is higher. This also covers the IR spectrum, not just the the range of wavelengths you specified.

Very back-of-the-envelope, but should get you in the ballpark.

http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html

Xyrus2000 Thanks a lot. My back ground is electrical Engineering, I did not know the term solar insolation. By looking that up, I am way far ahead of were I was. Thanks for doing the calculation also.

Quoting Neapolitan:

NWS says the temp fell to -1 at 11:25 PM, meaning that the record was merely tied. (The official time will be marked as 11:59 PM.)

Now we have to see how many subzero days there are in total in the Twins and elsewhere (St. Cloud, Mankato, Eau Claire, Albert Lea, etc.)

as painful as this morning was, outside for about 40-45min, it is comforting to see this air arrive.

Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #260 --- I thought Dr. Masters had recently published a blog stating that the drought and subsequent famine in Africa had killed more people than any other disaster in 2011.

I noticed that. Earthquakes are sudden and without warning. The drought is old news to many people and does not have the same shock value as an earthquake. Therefor less ratings, hype and money for news organizations. It does not matter how many killed or why, it has to be newsworthy. Earthquakes have been very deadly past few years............................................. .................................................. ..................January 12, Haiti region, M7.0
According to official estimates, 316,000 people killed, 300,000 injured, 1.3 million displaced, 97,294 houses destroyed and 188,383 damaged in the Port-au-Prince area and in much of southern Haiti. Other estimates suggest substantially lower numbers of casualties, perhaps as low as fewer than 100,000. The casualties include at least 4 people killed by a local tsunami in the Petit Paradis area near Leogane. Tsunami waves were also reported at Jacmel, Les Cayes, Petit Goave, Leogane, Luly and Anse a Galets. The tsunami had recorded wave heights (peak-to-trough) of 12 cm at Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and 2 cm at Christiansted, US Virgin Islands. Uplift was observed along the coast from Leogane to L'Acul and subsidence was observed along the coast from Grand Trou to Port Royal. Felt (VIII) at Leogane; (VII) at Carrefour, Port-au-Prince and Petionville; (VI) at Vieux Bourg d'Aquin; (V) at Port-de-Paix. Felt (V) at La Vega, Moca and San Cristobal; (IV) at Bani, Bonao, Luperon, Nagua, Puerto Plata, Santiago, Santo Domingo and Sosua, Dominican Republic. Felt throughout Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Felt (III) at Oranjestad, Aruba; (IV) at Santiago de Cuba and (III) at Guantanamo, Cuba; (II) in the Kingston-Mona area, Jamaica; (II) at Carolina and San Juan, Puerto Rico; (III) at Cockburn Harbour and (II) at Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands; (III) at Maracaibo and (II) at Caracas, Venezuela. Felt in parts of The Bahamas, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands and as far as southern Florida, northern Colombia and northwestern Venezuela. Date
UTC Region Magnitude Number Killed *
2011 01 18 Southwestern Pakistan 7.2 3
2011 02 04 Myanmar-India border region 6.2 1
2011 02 21 South Island of New Zealand 6.1 181
2011 03 10 Myanmar-China border region 5.5 25
2011 03 11 Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan 9.0 20352
2011 03 24 Myanmar 6.9 74
2011 04 07 Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan 7.1 3
2011 04 11 Eastern Honshu, Japan 6.6 7
2011 05 11 Spain 5.1 10
2011 07 19 Kyrgyzstan 6.1 14
2011 09 05 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia 6.7 10
2011 09 18 Sikkim, India 6.9 108
2011 09 19 Guatemala 5.6 1
2011 10 23 Eastern Turkey 7.1 601
2011 10 28 Near the coast of central Peru 6.9 1
2011 11 09 Eastern turkey 5.6 8
2011 12 11 Guerrero, Mexico 6.5 2
Total 21401--- Earthquakes


Deaths from Earthquakes in 2010

Deaths in 2010
Deaths from Earthquakes in 2010 Date
UTC Region Magnitude Number Killed *
2010 01 10 Java, Indonesia 5.1 1
2010 01 12 Haiti region 7.0 316000
2010 01 17 Guizhou,China 4.4 8
2010 01 30 Eastern Sichuan, China 5.1 1
2010 02 27 Offshore Bio-Bio, Chile 8.8 547
2010 02 27 Salta, Argentina 6.3 2
2010 03 08 Eastern Turkey 6.1 42
2010 04 04 Baja California, Mexico 7.2 2
2010 04 13 Southern Qinghai, China 6.9 2968
2010 04 18 Central Afghanistan 5.6 11
2010 05 14 Northern Algeria 5.2 2
2010 06 16 Near the North Coast of Papua, Indonesia 7.0 17
2010 06 30 Oaxaca, Mexico 6.3 1
2010 07 20 Southern Iran 5.8 1
2010 08 27 Northern Iran 5.7 3
2010 09 27 Southern Iran 5.8 1
2010 10 10 Pakistan 5.2 1
2010 10 25 Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia 7.8 503
2010 11 03 Serbia 5.5 2
2010 12 20 Southeastern Iran 6.7 7
Total 320120

Tepco will raise the electricity cost for the families
Posted by Mochizuki on January 19th, 2012

Tepco will raise the electricity bill for non-corporation consumers by 5~15% to pay for compensation and abandoning the nuclear plants.
Tepco employees were paid bonus last December (Average 300,000JPY) but they claim they will have 600 billion yen of deficit for this March. They assert “If they can’t re-start nuclear plants, they will have 800~900 billion of deficit annually, it can’t be a business.”
Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Edano refused them to try to raise the electricity bill the end of last year.
However, if Tepco goes bankrupt, they can no longer pay for compensation and abandoning the reactors. Japanese government agreed with Tepco to raise the fee.
Japanese citizens will be compensated from their own electric fee after Tepco steals their own profit.

Something may be trying to get itself together over Solomon Islands

30 minutes ago:



now:



Look at the western eyewall, it now is covered in firing deep convection with a slight gap in convection in between the two eyewalls....I'm just throwing the possibility for EI out there.

For comparison sake, here is Funso 3 hours ago, and here is Funso 4 hours ago.

This is the slowest I have ever seen the blog....I bet if I could serve delicious, ice cold, home brewed and 3 x,s the kick of average beer on this blog, there would be a couple more blog entries...just my harmless opinion...:)...I also hope that I am not castigated by the wanna be blog police....I,m lonely......sniffle, snurf...