Fourth warmest winter on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on March 08, 2012

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February is gone, and the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 is the history books as the fourth warmest in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The winter average temperature of 36.8°F was just 0.4°F cooler than the warmest winter on record, the winter of 1999 - 2000. If you lived in the Northern Plains, Midwest, Southeast and Northeast, it seemed like winter never really arrived this year--27 states in this region had top-ten warmest winters. Across the U.S., only New Mexico (41st coolest) and Alaska (35th coolest) had winter temperatures colder than average. According to NOAA's Climate Extremes Index, the percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures (top 10% on record) was 49 percent--the 4th highest value since the index began being computed in 1911. Jackson, Kentucky, Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, and Trenton, New Jersey all had their warmest winter on record.


Figure 1. Contiguous U.S. temperature rankings for the winter of 2011 - 2012 (the months of December - January - February.) The 117-year period of record begins in 1895, and each state is given a ranking based on how cold this winter was, relative to the other 116 years. Thus, a ranking of 116 means it was the 2nd warmest winter on record. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2. Contiguous U.S. temperatures for winter (the months of December - January - February), from 1895 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest winter on record, behind 2000, 1999, and 1992. Winter temperatures have increased by abot 1.7°F per century (red linear trend line.) Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Third least snowy winter on record for the contiguous U.S.
Warm and dry conditions during the winter of 2011 - 2012 led to snow cover extent that was the 3rd lowest in the 46-year satellite record, according to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab. Snowfall was particularly low across parts of the West, where much of California, Nevada, and Arizona had a snowpack less than half of average. Fortunately, the West had a near-record snowpack the previous winter, so this year's lack on snow will not cause serious water availability problems during the summer. In the Upper Midwest, the lack of a winter snowpack will substantially reduce the chances of spring flooding along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers. NOAA issues their annual spring flood outlook on March 15, and it is likely to show a much lower risk of flooding compared to last year, when 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year floods hit much of the Missouri and Lower Mississippi rivers. However, the remarkably low snow cover this winter over the Upper Midwest will allow soils to dry out much more quickly than usual, leading to increased chances of summer drought. The latest Drought Monitor map shows moderate to severe drought covering nearly all of Minnesota and Northwest Iowa; these regions are at high risk of suffering damaging drought conditions during the summer growing season.


Figure 3. State-by-state rankings of precipitation for the winter of 2011 - 2012. Four Western states had a top-ten driest winters on record, and Kansas had a top-ten wettest winter. Drought-stricken Texas, which entered the winter expecting drier than average conditions, since it was a La Niña year, lucked out, getting an unusually wet winter. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

A very mild winter for the Midwest
If you live in the Midwest, you saved a bundle this winter on heating and snow removal costs. In Minneapolis, where the low temperature falls below 0°F an average of 30 days each year, the temperature fell below zero on just two days. These days were January 18 and 19, when the low hit -1°F and -11°F, respectively. Since record keeping began in 1891, only one other winter has had so few below-zero days--the winter of 2001 - 2002. Third place is held by the winter of 1930 - 1931, with six below-zero days. Minneapolis has seen half of its usual snowfall this winter--just 22.1" as of March 7, which is 22.1" below the average of 44.2". The least snowy winter for Minneapolis occurred in the winter of 1930 - 1931, when just 14.2" of snow fell on the city.

Chicago has also seen far less snow than usual--just 19.8" as of March 7, 11.8" below their average. In a normal winter, there are 13 days with sub-zero temperatures in Chicago. The coldest it got in Chicago this winter was a relatively balmy 5°F on January 19. This is just one degree cooler than the warmest winter low temperature ever recorded in the city, which is 6°F. Here is a list of the winters in Chicago that have had no sub-zero temperatures, with the coldest temperature of the winter shown in parentheses:

1930-31 (6°F)
1959-60 (6°F)
1905-06 (6°F)
2011-12 (5°F)
1982-83 (3°F)
1938-39 (2°F)
1955-56 (2°F)
1931-32 (1°F)
1881-82 (1°F)
1936-37 (1°F)

NCDC's Dr. Deke Arndt has a two-minute video discussing the reasons for this year's warm winter. The primary factor was the position of the jet stream, which lay much farther north than usual.

I'll be back Monday at the latest with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Mild Winter (26mileman)
With mild temps people are out riding their bikes.
Mild Winter
March 6-7 aurora in Palmer Alaska (alaskario)
(c) Rebecca Oprish Photography. If you share this picture anywhere, please be sure to credit the photographer.
March 6-7 aurora in Palmer Alaska
A Little Light... (ceocrocker)
Amazing what sunlight, river debris and a little skim of ice can produce!
A Little Light...

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Quoting wxmod:
Imagine driving a thousand miles and never seeing the sun because of air pollution. How can you get energy from solar panels in this environment? China today. MODIS

I heard a news story about the dust storms from China reaching Korea. It said the dust originates in the Gobi Desert. Link.

"Intense dust storms have blown across Korea throughout recorded history, but their frequency and intensity have increased in recent decades."
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Lol... It looks the same as when it was 35 knots: A big blob of convection

I guess they are going on more than just the satellite photo on their computer screen.
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Xyrus, I like your comment. I thought immediately of two examples.

1. Europeans took Indian children away from their parents, especially in the West, and sent them to boarding schools where they had no contact with their family, language or culture. They even took the children's names away. This was meant for good, yet it did irreparable harm to the children, their families and their culture. What was "good" to the Europeans was most "evil" for the Native Americans.

2. Building of levees to protect cities in floodplains has had some remarkably negative short and long-term impacts on the Mississippi flood plain. The most recent example is the opening of that spillway to avert catastrophic flooding of, I believe, the southernmost town in Illinois.

It's easy to "mean well", but not always so easy to "do all the good you can"....
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Quoting KeyWestSun:

Then it sounds to me like it's all in the hands of the Texas Death Ridge. If it forms, expect "Don-like" storms or none at all. If not, then maybe the gates of tropical activity will open for you guys. And if that's the case, I'll be pulling for a large, moderate-intensity TS, as those are the best for rain. Although I don't mean another Alison. I'm not that mean!!

Another Hermine would be nice. 15" in 12 hours, all the inconvenience of heavy rain over quick.

She was a ~teleconnect storm, and as we see the SW PAC has saved us since last Sept. with all the moisture it's given us.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


With the great power we have we have the responsibility to use it for good.


NO!

Good is subjective, and much pain and suffering has come about from people using power for whatever their version of "good" is. Then more often than not, the temptation of power corrupts and what may have started out as something "good" turns into a nightmare. The road to hell is paved with good intentions and all that.

Whenever you use great power, you must consider every possible consequence of your actions. Even if it would appear your actions are good, they can have drastic unintended consequences.
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766. wxmod
Imagine driving a thousand miles and never seeing the sun because of air pollution. How can you get energy from solar panels in this environment? China today. MODIS

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Designated Counties

Disaster Summary For FEMA-DR-4058, Indiana

Declaration Date: March 9, 2012

Incident: Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, and Tornadoes

Incident Period: February 29, 2012 to March 3, 2012

Individual Assistance
(Assistance to individuals and households):

Clark County, Jefferson County, Ripley County, Scott County, Warrick County, and Washington County.
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Quoting KeyWestSun:

With that, will the vast majority of number of storms form in the GOM?

It will depend on a couple of things:
A. Water temperature- Should be very favorable for tropical systems
B. Shear- Tough to predict that, but obviously if the shear is low that will be favorable for storms
C. Dry air- This was a big issue last year (won't mention names... DON) If the Texas drought stays bad this could be an issue but if Texas gets into a more moist pattern like it is right now that could be very favorable for storms.
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Quoting KeyWestSun:

Any threat of any tornado outbreaks within the next 10 days or so? I'm only asking because the eastern 2/3 of the conterminous U.S. will see average temperatures significantly above average.

The GFS is showing a major outbreak next weekend across the Central Plains.
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well, im hungry. time to go git somtin to eat, bbl
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Look how close we are to the record number of tornadoes (red line). I hope this does not continue through Spring...at least, not in populated areas.

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Phil Klotzbach/Dr Gray will release a brief update for the Atlantic 2012 Hurricane Season on March 21rst. Read the press release below.

NEWS

03/07/2012

Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray will put out a brief update for their outlook for the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season on Wednesday, March 21. This brief outlook will be released prior to the start of the National Hurricane Conference and will discuss some of the changes that have occurred in various large-scale atmosphere and ocean patterns since their initial outlook put out in early December. The probabilities for the four scenarios discussed in the early December outlook will be updated at that time. The first seasonal forecast with numbers will come out as originally scheduled on Wednesday, April 4.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15657
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Cybr, do you think this 2012 Atlantic season will consist of the majority of the systems that will form to be Homegrowns?


I think it will be, yes.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


i wish Jose could have looked like that...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
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I see Koji got an intensity of 70 knots last night..das cool :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
My numbers for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season are 12/7/3. I would like to see soon our friend Levi32 begin to do his tidbits.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15657
morning all..
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Here are a couple of relaxing songs for those who might need it....Link..................................Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24766
March 2, 2012 Tornadoes: VIA GOES NOAA

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a href="" target="_blank">Link
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Cybr, do you think this 2012 Atlantic season will consist of the majority of the systems that will form to be Homegrowns?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15657
Quoting KoritheMan:


We are not going to get a full-fledged El Nino this summer. I'll seriously give you $20 if we do.


I agree, looking at the general setup right now I am leaning towards warm neutral, with a slightly above average season with 13 named - similar to 1999 perhaps, though it is too early to name a real analog year. However, a El Nino over the winter would not be a surprise.
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Nearly four feet of rain has fallen in some parts of Hawaii over the past week. In addition, Oahu was pummelled by hailstones larger than 3", a size NWS Honolulu says is "unprecedented" there.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1155 AM HST FRI MAR 9 2012


...TORRENTIAL RAINS SLAM HAWAII IN THE PAST WEEK...

A SLOW MOVING FRONT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO MOST ISLANDS THE PAST
WEEK...AS IT INTERACTED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT. THE
FOLLOWING REPRESENTS 7-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS...FROM 11 AM FRIDAY MARCH
2 THROUGH 11 AM FRIDAY MARCH 9.

THESE PRELIMINARY TOTALS WERE CALCULATED USING PROVISIONAL REPORTS
FROM AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN QUALITY CONTROLLED.

LOCATION AMOUNT

KAUAI
/HNIH1/ HANALEI 45.97
/WNHH1/ WAINIHA POWER HOUSE 43.84
/KPIH1/ KAPAHI 32.66
/WLLH1/ MOUNT WAIALEALE RAINGAGE 31.32
/WLDH1/ WAILUA DITCH - USGS 28.23
/KLOH1/ KILOHANA RG - USGS 26.88
/WUHH1/ WAILUA UH EXP STN 24.17


OAHU
/OFRH1/ OAHU FOREST NWR 39.65
/MOGH1/ MOANALUA - USGS - USGS 36.42
/PNSH1/ PUNALUU STREAM - USGS 31.46
/WITH1/ WILSON TUNNEL 25.05
/LULH1/ LULUKU 22.25
/KNRH1/ KAHANA STREAM RAIN GAGE - USGS 21.17
/NUUH1/ NUUANU UPPER 20.99
/PTWH1/ PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER 20.47
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Quoting Patrap:
Killing over 100 million Humans in the last Century, well, yeah, Look where we are today.

War is Mans Highest Art.


But this connectivity here is erasing all the old paradigms fast and with a ever growing intellect and language.

He possess's the Tools to kill off the entire Worlds Population with a Keystroke,in a matter of Hours..yet a Billion go Hungry every day.

Show me the advance?

Im a good listener.












If this were mankind's legacy we would be only fit for extinction but, thank goodness, it is only our culture's legacy. Even today there are a few untouched cultures on the planet that manage to live in relative peace with their neighbor human beings and, more importantly, in peace with the rest of the biosphere.

The massive challenge for the people of our culture will be to change the present economic and governmental paradigm before we manage to make the entire planet uninhabitable.

I submit that world-wide we are seeing the first glimmers of the new worldview. Some examples you can google are the horizontalism movement of 2001 Argentina, the 15M movement in Spain, the P2P movement, and most recently aspects of the Occupy Movement here in the US. There is reason to hope but the reaction of present power structure in our corporate culture will continue to be suppression through violence.

While I'm very excited to watch this birth of great promise, I'm most sad that it seems to be my own government that is most able and determined to crush this wonderful butterfly even before it emerges from the chrysalis. I believe my government will fail and that makes me very happy.

There are better days a'coming. Educate yourself and rejoice.
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Good morning

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Good morning on this Saturday.Remember to move your clocks ahead one hour tonight. A good weekend in general here with only the usual afternoon showers in interior PR.

Have you noticed that the ITCZ is void of clouds? Hmmm,that West African drought that continues is taking it's toll already and combined with colder sst's,is causing the convergence zone to not be active at this time.




Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15657
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want





Planetary Alignment / Earthquake Watch March 21-22, 2012




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLoK-d4cMSw
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Quoting TomTaylor:
i was just yankin your chain lol


I know. <3
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Btw for the people with a good sense of humor: Link

The good sense of humor is a warning btw.
hahah
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I admitted it was a misnomer to Shen awhile back. I tend to call all continents nations for some strange reason, even though I know it's incorrect. Old habits die hard I guess.

ETA: I guess because we colloquially refer to North America as simply "America", and from there, we label it a nation?
i was just yankin your chain lol
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Found this interesting letter on it.

Dear Jason Russell,
After being bombarded with your KONY 2012 crusade, I have no choice but to respond to your highly inaccurate, offensive, and harmful propaganda. I realized I had to respond in hopes of stopping you before you cause more violence and deaths to the Acholi people (Northern Ugandans), the very people you are claiming to protect. Firstly, I would like to question your timing of this KONY 2012 crusade in Uganda when most of the violence from Joseph Kony and the LRA (The Lord’s Resistance Army) has subsided in Uganda in the past 5 years. The LRA has moved onto neighboring countries like the DRC and Sudan. Why are you not urging action in the countries he is currently in? Why are you worried about Kony all of a sudden when Ugandans are not at this present moment?
This grossly illogical timing and statements on your website such as “Click here to buy your KONY 2012 products” makes me believe that the timing has more to do with your commercial interests than humanitarian interests. With the upcoming U.S. presidential elections and the waning interest in Invisible Children, it seems to be perfect timing to start a crusade. I also must add at this point how much it personally disgusts me the way in which you have commercialized a conflict in which thousands of people have died.
Secondly, I would like to address the highly inaccurate content of your video. Your video did not leave the viewer any more knowledgeable about the conflict in Uganda, but only emotionally assaulted. I could not help but notice how conveniently one-sided the “explanation” in your video was. There was absolutely no mention of the role of the Ugandan government and military in the conflict. Let alone the role of the U.S. government and military. The only information given is “KONY MUST BE STOPPED.”
I would like to inform you that stopping Kony would not end the conflict. (It is correctly pronounced “Kohn” by the way). This conflict is deeply embedded in Uganda’s history that neither starts nor ends with Kony. Therefore, your solution to the problem is flawed. There is no way to know the solution, without full knowledge of the problem itself. We must act on knowledge, not emotions.
Joseph Kony formed the LRA in retaliation to the brutality of President Museveni (from the south) committing mass atrocities on the Acholi people (from the north) when President Museveni came to power in 1986. This follows a long history of Ugandan politics that can be traced back to pre-colonial times. The conflict must be contextualized within this history. (If you want to have this proper knowledge, I suggest you start by working with scholars, not celebrities). President Museveni is still in power and in his reign of 26 years he has arguably killed as many, if not more Acholi people, than Joseph Kony. Why is President Museveni not demonized, let alone mentioned? I would like to give you more credit than just ignorance. I have three guesses. One is that Invisible Children has close ties with the Ugandan government and military, which it has been accused of many times. Second, is that you are willing to fight Kony, but not the U.S. Government, which openly supports President Museveni. Third, is that Invisible Children feels the need to reduce the conflict to better commercialize it.
This brings me to my third issue, the highly offensive nature of your video. Firstly, it is offensive to your viewer. The scene with your “explanation” of the conflict to your toddler son suggests that the viewers have the mental capacity of a toddler and can only handle information given in such a reductionist manner. I would like to think American teenagers and young adults (which is clearly your target audience) are smarter than your toddler son. I would hope that we are able to realize that it is not a “Star Wars” game with aliens and robots in some far off galaxy as your son suggests, but a real world conflict with real world people in Uganda. This is a real life conflict with real life consequences.
Secondly, and more importantly, it is offensive to Ugandans. The very name “Invisible Children” is offensive. You claim you make the invisible, visible. The statements, “We have seen these kids.” and “No one knew about these kids.” are part of your slogan. You seem to be strongly hinting that you somehow have validated and found these kids and their struggles.
Whether you see them or not, they were always there. Your having seen the kids does not validate their existence in any shape or form or bring it any more significance. You say “no one” knew about the kids. What about the kids themselves? What about the families of the kids who were killed and abducted? Are they “no one?” Are they not human?
These children are not invisible, you are making them invisible by silencing, dehumanizing, marketing, and invalidating them.
Last year I went to Gulu, Uganda, where Invisible Children is based, and interviewed over 50 locals. Every single person questioned Invisible Children’s legitimacy and intention. Every single person. If anything, it seemed the people saw Invisible Children as a bigger threat than Joseph Kony at the time. Why is it the very people you are trying to “help” feel more offense than relief with your aid?
“They come here to make money and use us.”
“It makes us feel terrible to be presented as being so stupid and helpless.”
These are direct quotes. This was the sentiment of the majority of the people that I interviewed in varying degrees. I definitely didn’t see or hear these voices or opinions in your video. If you are to be “saving” the Acholi people, the very least you can be doing is holding yourself accountable to them and actually listening to what they have to say.
This offensive, inaccurate misconstruction of Ugandans and its conflict makes me wonder what and whom this is really about. It seems that you feel very good about yourself being a savior, a Luke Skywalker of sorts, and same with the girl in your video who passionately states, “This is what defines us”. Therefore, I can’t help but wonder if Invisible Children is more about defining the American do-gooders (and making them feel good), rather than the Ugandans; profiteering the American military and corporations (which Invisible Children is officially and legally) than the conflict.
Lastly, I would like to address the harmful nature of your propaganda. I believe your actions will actually bring back the fighting in Northern Uganda. You are not asking for peace, but violence. The fighting has stopped in the past 5 years and the Acholi are finally enjoying some peace. You will be inviting the LRA and the fighting back into Uganda and disturbing this peace. The last time Invisible Children got politically involved and began lobbying it actually caused more violence and deaths. I beg you not to do it again.
If you open your eyes and see the actions of the Ugandan government and the U.S. government, you will see why. Why is it that suddenly in October of 2011 when there has been relative peace in Uganda for 4 years, President Obama decided to send troops into Uganda? Why is it that the U.S. military is so involved with AFRICOM, which has been pervading African countries, including Uganda? Why is it that U.S. has been traced to creating the very weapons that has been used in the violence? The U.S. is entering Uganda and other countries in Africa not to stop violence, but to create a new battlefield.
In your video you urge that the first course of action is that the Ugandan military needs American military and weapons. You are giving weapons to the very people who were killing the Acholi people in the first place. You are helping to open the grounds for America to make Uganda into a battlefield in which it can profit and gain power. Please recognize this is all part of a bigger military movement, not a humanitarian movement. This will cause deaths, not save lives. This will be doing more harm, than good.
You end your video with saying, “I will stop at nothing”. If nothing else, will you not stop for the lives of the Acholi people? Haven’t enough Acholi people suffered in the violence between the LRA and the Ugandan government? Our alliance should not be with the U.S. government or the Ugandan military or the LRA, but the Acholi people. There is a Ugandan saying that goes, “The grass will always suffer when two elephants fight.” Isn’t it time we let the grass grow?
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Amber Ha
Amber brings up good points.

1. Invisible Children is known to be a relatively irresponsible group when it comes to handling their donations.
2. The whole idea behind centering this on Uganda when Kony has actually left Uganda really doesn't make sense.
3. The Ugandan government and military which they are trying to support has many problems itself.

I do disagree with the way the author attacks the commercialization of the issue, this is how they are spreading awareness, and they have done a damn good job of it. I also disagree with the bold part. The United States' involvement with Africa's many problems has been slow for the most part and never too forceful. I completely disagree with America trying to create a new battleground, if anything we have tried to avoid conflict in Africa.



Anyway, I think as a whole this Kony 2012 campaign will do far more good than bad, and it has already helped raise a large amount of awareness. However, there are clearly some problems with how Invisible Children uses their funds and the overall goal of this campaign.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
come on kori, Africa isn't a nation ;p


I admitted it was a misnomer to Shen awhile back. I tend to call all continents nations for some strange reason, even though I know it's incorrect. Old habits die hard I guess.

ETA: I guess because we colloquially refer to North America as simply "America", and from there, we label it a nation?
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Fair enough. I guess I'm just not as comfortable as you and Levi are with that. I'm a short-range weather forecaster, and I think it tends to be much more pragmatic in the long run. I consider anything beyond seven days a crapshoot anyway, as though we may be able to pinpoint the large scale pattern across a given area subsequent to that point (even then it's not always the case), precise timing, amplification, and certain mesoscale details remain inherently muddled.

We've come a long way, but we need to come a lot further before we can confidently assess the weather beyond an arbitrary short-range point.
I use the long range models to create generalizations about what the weather will be like during that time. I don't look at specific storms that a operational model shows, but I do look at the ensemble run 500mb heights and anomalies, as well as forecasted temperature, precipitation and MSLP anomalies over large areas. From these anomalies I can make general predictions about the long range weather without having to worry about specifics like a storm showing up at a certain time with a particular intensity. If I see strong consistency between runs and among models, than I can make these predictions with a good amount of confidence.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


As horrible as that is (I haven't watched it either), did we really need to be made aware of something we already knew? It's not a secret that Africa is a relatively poor nation, which obviously extends to living conditions and government control as well.
come on kori, Africa isn't a nation ;p
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In honor of my last year on Earth and the end of the world...

Lol.

Heck, at least show people where they can go and get it.

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59083
Major Earthquakes 8.0 and Larger Since 1900

1/10/1971 7:17:00 8.1 Papua, Indonesia
1/13/2007 4:23:21 8.1 East of the Kuril Islands
1/15/1934 8:43:00 8.1 Bihar, India
1/24/1948 17:46:00 8.2 Panay, Philippines
1/31/1906 15:36:00 8.8 Colombia-Ecuador
1/4/1903 5:07:00 8.0 Tonga
Six

2/1/1938 19:04:00 8.5 Banda Sea
2/17/1996 5:59:00 8.2 Irian Jaya region, Indonesia
2/27/2010 6:34:14 8.8 Offshore Maule, Chile
2/3/1923 16:01:00 8.5 Kamchatka
2/4/1965 5:01:00 8.7 Rat Islands, Alaska
Five

3/11/2011 5:46:23 9.0 Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan
3/2/1933 17:31:00 8.4 Sanriku, Japan
3/25/1998 3:12:00 8.1 Balleny Islands region
3/28/1964 3:36:00 9.2 Prince William Sound, Alaska
3/28/2005 16:09:00 8.6 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia
3/3/1985 22:47:00 8.0 offshore Valparaiso, Chile
3/4/1952 1:22:00 8.1 Hokkaido, Japan region
3/9/1957 14:22:00 8.6 Andreanof Islands, Alaska
Eight

4/1/1946 12:28:00 8.1 Unimak Islands, Alaska
4/1/2007 20:39:58 8.1 Solomon Islands
4/14/1924 16:20:00 8.3 Mindanao, Philippines
4/30/1919 7:17:00 8.2 Tonga region
4/30/1939 2:55:00 8.0 Solomon Islands
4/6/1943 16:07:00 8.2 off the coast of Coquimbo, Chile
Six

5/1/1915 5:00:00 8.0 Kurile Islands
5/1/1917 18:26:00 8.0 Kermadec Islands, New Zealand
5/16/1968 0:49:00 8.2 off the east coast of Honshu, Japan
5/22/1960 19:11:00 9.5 Chile
5/23/1989 10:54:00 8.1 Macquarie Island region
5/24/1940 16:33:00 8.2 near the Coast of central Peru
5/26/1914 14:22:00 8.0 West New Guinea
5/3/2006 15:26:00 8.0 Tonga
5/4/1959 7:15:00 8.2 near the east coast of Kamchatka
5/7/1986 22:47:00 8.0 Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska
Ten

6/11/1902 5:00:00 8.0 Sea of Okhotsk
6/15/1911 14:26:00 8.1 Ryukyu Islands, Japan
6/17/1928 3:19:00 8.0 Oaxaca, Mexico
6/22/1977 12:08:00 8.1 Tonga region
6/23/2001 20:33:00 8.4 near the coast of southern Peru
6/26/1917 5:49:00 8.4 Tonga
6/3/1932 10:36:00 8.1 Jalisco, Mexico
6/5/1920 4:21:00 8.0 Taiwan region
6/9/1994 0:33:00 8.2 La Paz, Bolivia
Nine

7/23/1905 2:46:00 8.4 central Mongolia
7/30/1995 5:11:00 8.0 Near Coast of Northern Chile
7/31/1970 17:08:00 8.0 Colombia
7/9/1905 9:40:00 8.4 Mongolia
Four

8/10/1931 21:18:00 8.0 northern Xinjiang, China
8/11/1903 4:32:00 8.3 southern Greece
8/11/1969 21:27:00 8.2 Kuril Islands
8/15/1918 12:18:00 8.0 Celebes Sea
8/15/1950 14:09:00 8.6 Assam-Tibet
8/15/2007 23:40:57 8.0 Near the Coast of Central Peru
8/16/1976 16:11:00 8.0 Mindanao, Philippines
8/17/1906 0:40:00 8.2 Valparaiso, Chile
8/19/1977 6:08:00 8.3 south of Sumbawa, Indonesia
8/22/1949 4:01:00 8.1 Queen Charlotte Island, B.C., Canada
8/24/1942 22:50:00 8.2 Off the coast of central Peru
8/4/1946 17:51:00 8.0 Dominican Republic
Twelve

9/12/2007 11:10:26 8.5 Southern Sumatra, Indonesia
9/19/1985 13:17:00 8.0 Michoacan, Mexico
9/20/1920 14:39:00 8.0 Loyalty Islands
9/25/2003 19:50:00 8.3 Hokkaido, Japan region
9/29/2009 17:48:10 8.1 Samoa Islands region
9/7/1918 17:16:00 8.2 Kuril Islands
Six

10/13/1963 5:17:00 8.5 Kuril Islands
10/17/1966 21:41:00 8.1 near the coast of central Peru
10/21/1907 4:23:00 8.0 Afghanistan
10/3/1974 14:21:00 8.1 near the coast of central Peru
10/4/1994 13:22:00 8.3 Kuril Islands
10/9/1995 15:35:00 8.0 Near Coast of Jalisco, Mexico
Six

11/10/1938 20:18:00 8.2 Shumagin Islands, Alaska
11/11/1922 4:32:00 8.5 Chile-Argentina Border
11/15/2006 11:14:00 8.3 Kuril Islands
11/16/2000 4:54:00 8.0 New Ireland region, Papua New Guinea
11/25/1941 18:03:00 8.2 Azores-Cape St. Vincent Ridge
11/27/1945 21:57:00 8.0 off the coast of Pakistan
11/4/1952 16:58:00 9.0 Kamchatka, Russia
11/6/1958 22:58:00 8.3 Kuril Islands
Eight

12/12/1908 12:08:00 8.2 off the coast of central Peru
12/12/1979 7:59:00 8.1 near the coast of Ecuador
12/20/1946 19:19:00 8.1 Nankaido, Japan
12/23/2004 14:59:00 8.1 north of Macquarie Island
12/26/2004 0:58:00 9.1 off the west coast of northern Sumatra
12/4/1957 3:37:00 8.1 Gobi-Altai, Mongolia
12/7/1944 4:35:00 8.1 Tonankai, Japan
Seven

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
LOL.I didn't say El nino was going to form immediatly of coarse it will take time to develope.But I think that the changing over to El nino will have some affects in the Atlantic.Like the shear increasing ect..


With a cold PDO, I doubt we'll get one until the middle of the fall. Just my two cents. The money's still up for grabs!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


We are not going to get a full-fledged El Nino this summer. I'll seriously give you $20 if we do.
LOL.I didn't say El nino was going to form immediatly of coarse it will take time to develope.But I think that the changing over to El nino will have some affects in the Atlantic.Like the shear increasing ect..
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724. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
12:03 PM WST March 10 2012
=========================

A low is developing off the Pilbara coast approximately 600 km north northwest of Karratha in the vicinity of 16S 114E. It is possible that it will develop into a tropical cyclone during Sunday but it is more likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity during the week. This system is not expected to cause gales in Pilbara communities during Sunday or Monday but the risk of a coastal impact increases during the week

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================

Sunday: Moderate
Monday: High
Tuesday: High
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More than 25 years after the space shuttle Challenger exploded shortly after liftoff, an amateur video of the accident has surfaced.

The newly released video, taken by Jeffrey Ault, and licensed from Ault by the Huffington Post, offers a closer and more intimate view of the tragedy than have other video reports previously released by the news media. Ault was part of a live audience gathered to watch the Challenger take off from the Kennedy Space Center, less than 10 miles from the launch site. He shot the video on his Super 8 home video camera, and it sat for 26 years in a box in his house.





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Quoting washingtonian115:
El nin o is forming not a surprise....Hurricane season will be average.


We are not going to get a full-fledged El Nino this summer. I'll seriously give you $20 if we do.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want


....beware the ides of March.....
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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