Great Lakes ice cover down 71% since 1973

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:08 PM GMT on March 30, 2012

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Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, says a new study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The biggest loser of ice during the 1973 - 2010 time period was Lake Ontario, which saw an 88% decline in ice cover. During the same time period, Superior lost 79% of its ice, Michigan lost 77%, Huron lost 62%, and Erie lost 50%. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lake increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie showed almost no warming. The amount of warming of the waters in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan is higher than one might expect, because of a process called the ice-albedo feedback: when ice melts, it exposes darker water, which absorbs more sunlight, warming the water, forcing even more ice to melt. This sort of vicious cycle is also responsible for the recent extreme loss of Arctic sea ice. The increase in temperature of the lakes could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. They noted a pronounced 4-year and 8-year oscillation in ice coverage, which could be caused by the El Niño/La Niña and Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively.

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Figure 1. A tale of two winters: Lake Superior was choked with ice at the end of the winter of 2008 - 2009 (top), but was virtually ice-free at the end of the winter of 2011 - 2012 (bottom.) Image credit: NASA.

The consequences of Great Lakes ice loss
Ice coverage on the Great Lakes was just 5% this past winter, the second lowest on record, behind 2002. The lack of Great Lakes ice this winter probably added a few degrees of warmth to the unprecedented "Summer in March" conditions observed in Michigan last week--an event the National Weather Service in Detroit called "perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago." We can anticipate that areas surrounding the Great Lakes will see an increased incidence of warm spring weather due to decreased ice cover on the lakes.

The loss of Great Lakes ice has allowed much more water to evaporate in winter, resulting in heavier lake effect snow near the shore, and lower lake levels. Lower water levels have had a significant impact on the Great Lakes economy. Over 200 million tons of cargo are shipped every year through the Great Lakes. Since 1998, when water levels took a severe drop, commercial ships were forced to light-load their vessels. For every inch of clearance that these oceangoing vessels lost because of low water levels, $11,000 - $22,000 in profits were lost per day. Hydropower plants have also been affected by low water levels; several New York and Michigan plants were run at reduced capacity, forcing them to buy higher priced energy from other sources, and passing on the higher costs to consumers. The large loss of ice is also likely to accelerate shoreline erosion because of the increase in open water, and promote more algal blooms. It is uncertain if the Great Lake water levels will continue to fall as the climate warms, since the region is expected to see an increase in precipitation over the coming decades. In Michigan, annual precipitation increased by about 14% between 1895 - 2011, according to the National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2. Great Lakes ice coverage for the period December 4 - March 5, from the winter of 1980 - 1981 through 2011 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 had the second lowest ice coverage on record, just 5%. Only 2001 - 2002 (4.5%) had lower ice cover. The median ice coverage between 1980 - 2011 was about 19%. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Water levels on Lake Superior between 1860 and February 2012. Since the late 1990s, water levels have seen a steep decline, due to the loss of ice cover allowing more evaporation. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.

Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)

Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back by Monday at the latest with a new post, and may post some weather humor on Sunday (April Fools Day), as well.

Jeff Masters

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wanna be you need a dog mind would of turned the odds in my favor unless he was packing then i would of been just another statistic
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1056 weathermanwannabe: ...Don't know who else to tell (kid asleep and wife is out of town) but mine started on a bad note. Not going to call her to worry her, but...
1077 BahaHurican: Geez... what a way to start April! And u better hope ur wife doesn't read back the blog... she'd likely thwack u in the back of the head for not telling her....

Yeah, ya better tell her when you expect her to wake up, before the first cup of coffee.
Or as soon as you wake up... or immediately after you read this.
Otherwise she's gonna get mighty TORQUED that you withheld IMPORTANT information from her.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/201 2/04/wrong-sign-paradox-finally-resolved/
Eureka! I suspected it all along!
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So glad that you are safe --- that was quite the ordeal!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Happy April Fools day. Don't know who else to tell (kid asleep and wife is out of town) but mine started on a bad note. Not going to call her to worry her, but, I just had an altercation on my property with a potential burglar around midnight. Was watching TV, heard a noise on the back deck, went outside (with my cell phone in hand) and confronted a man in the back yard. We got into a struggle (I was tyring to call the police) and he knocked me down and took the cell phone..He was shirtless and unarmed so I chased him out to his car on the street, we stuggled again by his car door, and he was able to start his car (with me half in it) and hit the gas. I grabbled the wheel and he hit/bounced off a small tree by the road, I got knocked down, and he barely missed running over me and speed off. Just finished with the police and the Bolos are out on the vehicle. Anyway, I cannot sleep hence this late night entry for me. For those regulars who "know me", I am shaken but fine and my kid and the family dog slept through it in her bedroom; this is not an April Fools day joke.

Anyway, that ball of confusion in the Bay of Campeche looks interesting; if only the sheer was about 30 knots slower................
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Happy April Fools day. Don't know who else to tell (kid asleep and wife is out of town) but mine started on a bad note. Not going to call her to worry her, but, I just had an altercation on my property with a potential burglar around midnight. Was watching TV, heard a noise on the back deck, went outside (with my cell phone in hand) and confronted a man in the back yard. We got into a struggle (I was tyring to call the police) and he knocked me down and took the cell phone..He was shirtless and unarmed so I chased him out to his car on the street, we stuggled again by his car door, and he was able to start his car (with me half in it) and hit the gas. I grabbled the wheel and he hit/bounced off a small tree by the road, I got knocked down, and he barely missed running over me and speed off. Just finished with the police and the Bolos are out on the vehicle. Anyway, I cannot sleep hence this late night entry for me. For those regulars who "know me", I am shaken but fine and my kid and the family dog slept through it in her bedroom; this is not an April Fools day joke.

Anyway, that ball of confusion in the Bay of Campeche looks interesting; if only the sheer was about 30 knots slower................
Geez... what a way to start April! And u better hope ur wife doesn't read back the blog... she'd likely thwack u in the back of the head for not telling her....
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I am JFV











APRIL FOOLS
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Welcome to the ambinavigation revolution: Google introduces "Multitask Mode". (Be sure to test it out for yourself by clicking the blue button.)

I think this will come in very handy when hurricane season starts...
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Quoting nymore:
Your almost right. You should never take cover in a clear span area. The wind load rating on the structural walls in that type of construction is maybe 100 mph for a 5 second burst. Once the wall fails the pressure inside is much greater than outside therefor creating uplift, compromising the spot welds on the decking, the bar joist do not move as they are anchored to the remaining walls through imbed plates with a full seam weld. It is a wall failure not a roof failure


90 mph!
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Quoting Jedkins01:



The damage was a result of light weight construction and
hollow steel struss beams, also not shown is the older part of the school which was not damaged, teachers and students knew where to seek shelter, and were not hurt.
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Now this is the type of luck I would have:))

Man struck by lightning hours after buying lottery tickets

Link

Umm might need a umbrella :)

Asteroid to buzz Earth Sunday

Just in time for April Fools' Day, but it's no joke and is size of passenger jet

Link
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Quoting aspectre:
Good news: a recently discovered colony of penguins has undergone uniquely rapid evolution to adapt to ClimateChange caused by AnthropogenicGlobalWarming.


Good news indeed!

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Good news: a recently discovered colony of penguins has undergone uniquely rapid evolution to adapt to ClimateChange caused by AnthropogenicGlobalWarming.
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Quoting hydrus:
No..But I would bet something catastrophic happens in the next 500 million years. Most likely asteroid impacts or some other type of natural disasters.


Hi Hydrus,

Yep, you'd be correct. One possibility would be plate tectonics. The biggest extinction of all time coincided with the supercontinent, Pangaea, which removed a lot of the ocean's life real estate as well as with the Siberian Traps eruption(s). A supercontinent of that nature will occur again in 200 million years or so, probably also with such a disaster again.

As for the Earth's ability to sustain life, nobody knows for sure, but it's somewhere between 500 million years and 1 1/2 billion years before it all runs out. Well before we see the Red Giant phase.

That's still a very good timeframe even at most pessimistic, since most of the multicellular life we know of has evolved and lived in the last 500 (and a bit) million years.

All the lovely weather is going away for the time being for what is forecasted to be a very average April. It went from seeing 20 or so degrees (68-70F) to just 5 to 7C by Tuesday (low 40s). Make your mind up.
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1067. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F
18:00 PM FST April 1 2012
======================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

SEVERE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL MAJOR RIVERS, STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS OF VITI LEVU.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 19F (997 hPa) located at 16.0S 166.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has improved and convection has increased in the past 24 hours. Primary bands trying to wrap around the low level circulation center. Low level circulation difficult to locate. Tropical depression 19 lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. The system is being steered southeastward by northwesterly deep layer mean wind into an area of decreasing shear. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap giving DT=2.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further intensification.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 49316
Quoting Barefootontherocks:




24 tornado emergencies issued 2000-2010 resulted in No Tornado. No verification stats and success failure rates available there for 2011, but for the eleven previous years, check out the verifications and the decline in success as the EF ratings go up... And already the public feels overwarned...


My point exactly. The fact that we are using tornado emergency so much that many are even resulting in no tornado whatsoever tells the tale as far as I'm concerned. The desensitizing continues.
Unfortunately, we have no idea exactly how much this hurts our long term credibility yet, so our support of social science meteorological research must continue if we are to continue to serve the public as they expect from us.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No "bro", the sun isn't expected to enter its giant red phase for another 5 billion years, at which time it would begin to affect the Earth. Life should be sustainable up to that point.


Actually you're both off to some degree. The sun's energy output increases very slowly over time. In about a billions years or so, the suns luminosity will have increased by about 10%. Life will still exist, and there will still be water, but I doubt we'll be around (at least not here anyway).

With that increase in luminosity, the additional energy is expected to start vaporizing the oceans at an accelerated rate, giving rise to a serious greenhouse effect. The planet will become quite toasty at this point, and whatever life is left will rapidly die off. Plate tectonics slows and ultimately stops with the loss of water, which eventually causes the Earth's dynamo to stop as well.

If anything on the surface still managed to cling to life at this point, this most certainly spells it's doom. Without the dynamo the Earth's magnetic field will collapse, opening the atmosphere and surface to direct bombardment of solar winds and radiation. This would effectively sterilize the surface and begin peeling away the atmosphere.

So in reality, assuming we don't off ourselves and we can adapt to the changes, we have maybe about a billion years left on this planet. If certain other events happen between now and then it might possibly be extended to 2 billion years. Regardless, after that the Earth quickly devolves into a burning, barren, irradiated wasteland (like Venus).

Fun times. :)
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Quoting Xyrus2000:
You can cross reference the NWS warnings ESRI files against the Tornado History Project data (available in CSV format) to get a better idea of how often the warnings are justified.


Don't need to. Official stats are taken by each office. The main goal is POD, not FAR or CSI. The "Plainfield Syndrome" is central.

Quoting Xyrus2000:

The problem isn't the NWS. The problem is that people don't really understand how chaotic a tornado can be and what a tornado warning implies. People assume a tornado warning means they are in the path of a tornado (which isn't what it means). And after several such warnings without being hit, people just assume the NWS is a bunch of idiots who don't know what they're doing.


I'm not dumping this all on the NWS. Absolutely not. Have you seen my profile? You realize I work for them, right?
Even with that said, as an employee of the weather service I feel one must be introspective and find out what can we do to improve. Social research has received more attention as of late and we are beginning to see the toll of warning fatigue. This is not simply a NWS issue but is complex and involves many factors. But even with that said, that certainly doesn't mean that there are not things that could be greatly improved with how the NWS serves the public.
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Good Night All.....Gonna try to get some sleep.
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Quoting nymore:
I would tend to agree if we were not a battle. When we are at battle any info released to the enemy should be punishable by death. There should be no generational issue if it puts your troops in danger you are a traitor. The punishment for traitors is death, as it should be.


War is peace. When have we not been "in battle" with something?

He didn't release this info to "the enemy" - it was released to a blog that posted it for all to see.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where do you get this information? The point of a tornado warning is to give advanced warning on a storm that presents rotation on radar and is capable of producing a tornado. Considering the fact that one isn't issued without rotation leads me to believe that there isn't any real verification rate on those types of warnings.

Additionally, where do you get that less than half of tornado emergencies verify?


Those are unofficial stats conveyed to NWS DLOC students in spring of 2011. Warning Decision Training Branch discussed it at the beginning of the residency course how there have now been something like ~50 tornado emergencies issued, and only ~50% have verified.

Other warning statistics are kept officially but I can't think of the best place to find them right now. Tornado warnings are meant to indicate that a tornado is likely in the warned area, so it is imminent or occurring. That would imply a target rate of roughly 50-70% of them verifying, but instead the number is 20-40%.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


No promising rainfall outlooks in the summer?

First of all, its well above normal for this time of year including water temps, there is a good chance because of this that the rain season will arrive early.

Furthermore, La Nina is fading quickly, and El Nino may eventually take shape. Neutral conditions to El Nino conditions is a good sign for at least average rain season totals, which always means high abundance. However when I last checked NOAA had at or above average rain as we head further into the wet season as the effects of La Nina fade.

That being said, I'm not sure what makes you so worried about this summer? Regardless of how dry it is this time of year, we usually get soaked June through August into part of October.


I really hope you are correct. I have been been worried about the long term forecasts that have shown below normal rainfall for our area going into the summer rainy season. I do realize that it is still our dry season and will continue to be for almost the next two months (on average). Also, in recent years "getting soaked" from June through August has been a very unreliable expectation.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


That's horrifying. Glad to see you survived.


He was a skinny drunk dude without a shirt so I thought I could take him but he outran me to the car and got his door open and keys in his ignition; I was trying to grab my cell phone off the floor of his truck when he hit the gas. In hindsight (as the Officer's told me), I should have let him go and called them as soon as I saw him. I could have been run over or killed if he was packing in his car.

Very terrifying event and I live on a large lot so the neighbors did not hear it happen....When you have kids in the house, and you worry about somebody coming back, the adrenaline got the best of me.

Thanks for yor concern........I don't want to tell my wife until after she gets home tomorrow so as not to worry her but she will figure it out when she tries to call the cell phone while I am at church with my daughter. At least, I already called ATT, cancelled the phone, and the replacement should be here by Tuesday..... :)
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Happy April Fools day. Don't know who else to tell (kid asleep and wife is out of town) but mine started on a bad note. Not going to call her to worry her, but, I just had an altercation on my property with a potential burglar around midnight. Was watching TV, heard a noise on the back deck, went outside (with my cell phone in hand) and confronted a man in the back yard. We got into a struggle (I was tyring to call the police) and he knocked me down and took the cell phone..He was shirtless and unarmed so I chased him out to his car on the street, we stuggled again by his car door, and he was able to start his car (with me half in it) and hit the gas. I grabbled the wheel and he hit/bounced off a small tree by the road, I got knocked down, and he barely missed running over me and speed off. Just finished with the police and the Bolos are out on the vehicle. Anyway, I cannot sleep hence this late night entry for me. For those regulars who "know me", I am shaken but fine and my kid and the family dog slept through it in her bedroom; this is not an April Fools day joke.

Anyway, that ball of confusion in the Bay of Campeche looks interesting; if only the sheer was about 30 knots slower................


That's horrifying. Glad to see you survived.
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Happy April Fools day. Don't know who else to tell (kid asleep and wife is out of town) but mine started on a bad note. Not going to call her to worry her, but, I just had an altercation on my property with a potential burglar around midnight. Was watching TV, heard a noise on the back deck, went outside (with my cell phone in hand) and confronted a man in the back yard. We got into a struggle (I was tyring to call the police) and he knocked me down and took the cell phone..He was shirtless and unarmed so I chased him out to his car on the street, we stuggled again by his car door, and he was able to start his car (with me half in it) and hit the gas. I grabbled the wheel and he hit/bounced off a small tree by the road, I got knocked down, and he barely missed running over me and speed off. Just finished with the police and the Bolos are out on the vehicle. Anyway, I cannot sleep hence this late night entry for me. For those regulars who "know me", I am shaken but fine and my kid and the family dog slept through it in her bedroom; this is not an April Fools day joke.

Anyway, that ball of confusion in the Bay of Campeche looks interesting; if only the sheer was about 30 knots slower................
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Quoting SPLbeater:


but i CANT....its too hard.


If you want to seek out a girlfriend, do so. Your parents seem dedicated to homeschooling you anyways, so it's not like you'd be missing any education.

However, it won't happen overnight. I'm 21, and know this. Make sure it isn't ALL you worry about.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


He's super-Christian... He won't be "tapping it" for a long time. And that's all I have to say about that!



Please don't say this ever again, because there is NO WAY I would give up girls for a meteorology degree. Not gonna happen!

On a separate note, I'm going to be re-connecting with this girl I met at weather camp at Penn State last summer, while I am storm chasing with my friend later this spring. Hopefully all goes well for me then!


I nominate the top comment for post of the year!
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


So I see I am not the only one who thought the mid-level low along the Gulf coast was a bit odd this week....anyone else thought it was an interesting feature for this time of year?


I knew there was something I needed to do this spring...

EDIT: and yes, that was a bit peculiar.
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For my good friend SPL.... Thought it was relevant.
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1050. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


He's super-Christian... He won't be "tapping it" for a long time. And that's all I have to say about that!



Please don't say this ever again, because there is NO WAY I would give up girls for a meteorology degree. Not gonna happen!

On a separate note, I'm going to be re-connecting with this girl I met at weather camp at Penn State last summer, while I am storm chasing with my friend later this spring. Hopefully all goes well for me then!


Well, that's you, lol. As for me, I'm way too much of an introvert, I don't even really bother "hooking up" with girls in general because its a waste of time and leads to emotional problems and or other foolish things and its disrespectful to that person. By my age people should have grown out of that stage which shouldn't occur past adolescence. When I meet the woman who I intended to be married to the rest of my life, well that's a different story, and when I say that I mean it.

I don't desire flirting with girls, neither do I like drinking parties, or parties in general. Don't get me wrong, I'm far from anti-social, I just would much rather have deep conversation with a few close friends instead of a wild college party, yuck! Crowds drive me nuts because people get stupid in crowds and don't use their brain, everything they do is to whatever extreme of the emotion involved.

That being said, I'm the type of person who is more interested in finding a group of close friends whom I can trust and really get to know and learn who they are. That includes girls too when it comes to friendships, any girl who I don't intend to pursue with my heart I treat her as a sister, for playing with her heart is again of childish behavior.




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Just a note about feeling "overwarned" with tornado warnings. I have been placed under 5 or 6 tornado warnings, and numerous severe thunderstorm warnings in the last 3 years, and have not gotten any tornadoes from those storms, and very isolated damage, mainly from hail in a very very small area. I am even a little guilty of not heading for my safe place immediately, because I "can see" that nothing is coming, or that it will miss me. Plus, the success rate for the NWS and storms in my area is very low. I know I'm wrong, but I can see why people would ignore the warnings.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Does anybody here think it is a bad idea trying to re-connect wit my ex girlfriend and chat awhile? I mean, not get anything started again but just to see wats up. aint heard a word for about 2 months now...


You're 13, focus on school and everything surrounding it. The life with women will come later.
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1046. Grothar
Is this April's fools or are you all just sittng there with nothing to say?
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happy April fool's fellas... don't get tricked though
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1044. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 432 Comments: 131964
Quoting Jedkins01:



Think about this, if us humans are still call this Earth home in a billion years, I'm sure we'll have sufficient technology to survive somehow or somewhere else.

That being said, humans probably don't have to worry too much about the earth reaching the red giant stage. There are great enough obstacles in the near term as it is.



something to ponder... in a billion years we would have definitely evolved into something not even closely resembling ourselves today.

if we can survive past our current stage of fighting over portions of our earth (thanks carl sagan.) we will no doubt be able to continue on through space colonization.

i really have hope that we do move on. but we have infinite obstacles in our way of achieving that. everything from our own self destructive tendencies, to the fact that pretty much everything tries to kill us...(rephrase that to we get in the way of earths and the universes natural processes.)

but we are a resilient species, and we have a big brain and two free hands that work to our advantage over every other animal that has ever lived. that is also our downfall.
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1042. Patrap


Magnitude 4.2 - SOUTHERN ALASKA
2012 April 01 03:18:23 UTC


Earthquake Details

This is a computer-generated message -- this event has not yet been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 4.2

Date-Time
Sunday, April 01, 2012 at 03:18:23 UTC
Saturday, March 31, 2012 at 07:18:23 PM at epicenter
Location
60.046°N, 153.334°W
Depth
122 km (75.8 miles)
Region
SOUTHERN ALASKA
Distances
53 km (33 miles) NE (56°) from Pedro Bay, AK
57 km (35 miles) ESE (108°) from Port Alsworth, AK
85 km (53 miles) E (83°) from Nondalton, AK
233 km (145 miles) WSW (238°) from Anchorage, AK
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 0.3 km (0.2 miles); depth +/- 0.3 km (0.2 miles)
Parameters
Nph= 97, Dmin=0 km, Rmss=0.97 sec, Gp= 0,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=1
Source
Alaska Earthquake Information Center
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Event ID
ak10442098
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 432 Comments: 131964
1040. Patrap
...Hey fellas, have you heard the news? You know that Annie's back in town?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 432 Comments: 131964
1037. Patrap



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 432 Comments: 131964
1035. Grothar
Is this a "Dear Abby" blog or a weather blog?
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Does anybody here think it is a bad idea trying to re-connect wit my ex girlfriend and chat awhile? I mean, not get anything started again but just to see wats up. aint heard a word for about 2 months now...


It never hurts to talk if you are just friends, and it would also depend on how the breakup was (nasty or clean). Like for example I had this girl who I dated 2 months ago, but since we broke up I havent said a word to her even though I see her every day. I would ask a friend IRL rather than a weather blog though, or maybe an older sibling/cousin/male mentor. Also, you are a little young IMO to be worried about these things. I didn't have a real girlfriend until I was 15, because middle school relationships are like mini Kardashian mairrages, as in they last a really short time.
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Quoting brendanjames:


i read somewhere that, yes, the earth may only be able to sustain life for another billion or so years. even before the sun goes red giant its heat output will increase dramatically before so.

http://www.pnas.org/content/106/24/9576
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/sci/tech/specials/wash ington_2000/649913.stm
http://www.gps.caltech.edu/~kfl/paper/Li_PNAS2009 .pdf

during the last epoch the suns output was only 70% of what it is today. there is no reason to think it wont continue to heat up just because humans are here.

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/177/4043/52.abs tract?ck=nck



Think about this, if us humans are still call this Earth home in a billion years, I'm sure we'll have sufficient technology to survive somehow or somewhere else.

That being said, humans probably don't have to worry too much about the earth reaching the red giant stage. There are great enough obstacles in the near term as it is.
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something to consider too is the only reasons we have oceans, and an atmosphere, is because of our magnetic field. our magnetic field is driven by the inner core, and the molten material surrounding it(im sure you know.)

no one knows the rate of cooling our earth is and will go through in time. but im sure through that process the magnetic field will surely weaken. our weakening magnetic field coupled with a sun growing hotter and more active over the course of time means that LOOONG before earth is "consumed" by the sun our atmosphere will be stripped and our oceans boiled away.
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1031. Patrap
The most visible change in the Arctic region in recent years has been the rapid decline of the perennial ice cover. The perennial ice is the portion of the sea ice floating on the surface of the ocean that survives the summer. This ice that spans multiple years represents the thickest component of the sea ice cover.
This visualization shows the perennial Arctic sea ice from 1980 to 2012. The grey disk at the North Pole indicates the region where no satellite data is collected.



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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