Great Lakes ice cover down 71% since 1973

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:08 PM GMT on March 30, 2012

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Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, says a new study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The biggest loser of ice during the 1973 - 2010 time period was Lake Ontario, which saw an 88% decline in ice cover. During the same time period, Superior lost 79% of its ice, Michigan lost 77%, Huron lost 62%, and Erie lost 50%. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lake increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie showed almost no warming. The amount of warming of the waters in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan is higher than one might expect, because of a process called the ice-albedo feedback: when ice melts, it exposes darker water, which absorbs more sunlight, warming the water, forcing even more ice to melt. This sort of vicious cycle is also responsible for the recent extreme loss of Arctic sea ice. The increase in temperature of the lakes could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. They noted a pronounced 4-year and 8-year oscillation in ice coverage, which could be caused by the El Niño/La Niña and Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively.

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Figure 1. A tale of two winters: Lake Superior was choked with ice at the end of the winter of 2008 - 2009 (top), but was virtually ice-free at the end of the winter of 2011 - 2012 (bottom.) Image credit: NASA.

The consequences of Great Lakes ice loss
Ice coverage on the Great Lakes was just 5% this past winter, the second lowest on record, behind 2002. The lack of Great Lakes ice this winter probably added a few degrees of warmth to the unprecedented "Summer in March" conditions observed in Michigan last week--an event the National Weather Service in Detroit called "perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago." We can anticipate that areas surrounding the Great Lakes will see an increased incidence of warm spring weather due to decreased ice cover on the lakes.

The loss of Great Lakes ice has allowed much more water to evaporate in winter, resulting in heavier lake effect snow near the shore, and lower lake levels. Lower water levels have had a significant impact on the Great Lakes economy. Over 200 million tons of cargo are shipped every year through the Great Lakes. Since 1998, when water levels took a severe drop, commercial ships were forced to light-load their vessels. For every inch of clearance that these oceangoing vessels lost because of low water levels, $11,000 - $22,000 in profits were lost per day. Hydropower plants have also been affected by low water levels; several New York and Michigan plants were run at reduced capacity, forcing them to buy higher priced energy from other sources, and passing on the higher costs to consumers. The large loss of ice is also likely to accelerate shoreline erosion because of the increase in open water, and promote more algal blooms. It is uncertain if the Great Lake water levels will continue to fall as the climate warms, since the region is expected to see an increase in precipitation over the coming decades. In Michigan, annual precipitation increased by about 14% between 1895 - 2011, according to the National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2. Great Lakes ice coverage for the period December 4 - March 5, from the winter of 1980 - 1981 through 2011 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 had the second lowest ice coverage on record, just 5%. Only 2001 - 2002 (4.5%) had lower ice cover. The median ice coverage between 1980 - 2011 was about 19%. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Water levels on Lake Superior between 1860 and February 2012. Since the late 1990s, water levels have seen a steep decline, due to the loss of ice cover allowing more evaporation. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.

Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)

Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back by Monday at the latest with a new post, and may post some weather humor on Sunday (April Fools Day), as well.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here we go again with another day of more flood warnings as the wet March continues in Puerto Rico.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC037-053-089-103-119-301830-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0014.120330T1537Z-120330T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1137 AM AST FRI MAR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CEIBA
NAGUABO
FAJARDO
LUQUILLO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 230 PM AST

* AT 1134 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6574 1839 6571 1838 6570 1837 6562
1820 6566 1819 6567 1829 6586 1841 6586

$$

CASTRO

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN


Good morning tropicsweatherpr.....seems as if the rain is not ceasing
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8834
Quoting MTWX:


Quit sounding like my wife! I get enough of that at home!! LOL!





I cant help saying the truth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pollution from South Asia feeding into Typhoon Pakhar

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
77. MTWX
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


never 2 late 2 quit on both


Quit sounding like my wife! I get enough of that at home!! LOL!


Have had a few good downpours this morning with a few rumble of thunder. We could really use another good soaking. All my gardens seem to be doing well this year, and with the mild winter we had, my Passion flowers even survived!
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Quoting hydrus:
I have Passed by that wreck a few times. The Daniel.J.Morrell sunk 9 years earlier also with 29 men..The SS Daniel J. Morrell was a 603-foot (184 m) Great Lakes freighter that broke up in a strong storm on Lake Huron on 29 November 1966, taking with it 28 of its 29 crewmen. The freighter was used to carry bulk cargos such as iron ore but was running with only ballast when the 60-year-old boat sank.
The ship was named for Daniel Johnson Morrell, a U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania.
[edit] "A Bizarre Incident"

Making the last run of the season with her sister ship the SS Edward Y. Townsend, the Morrell became caught in winds exceeding 70 mph (110 km/h) and swells that topped the height of the ship (20-25 foot waves).[1] During the early morning hours, the Townsend made the decision to take shelter in the St. Mary's River, leaving the Morrell alone on the waters north of Pointe Aux Barques, Michigan, heading for the protection of Thunder Bay. At 2 am, the ship began its death throes, forcing the crew onto the deck, where many jumped to their deaths in the 34 degree Lake Huron waters. At 2:15 am, the ship broke in two, and the remaining crewmen loaded into a raft on the forward section of the vessel. While they waited for the bow section to sink and the raft to be thrown into the lake, there were shouts that a ship had been spotted off the port bow. Moments later, it was discovered that the looming object was not another ship, but in fact the Morrell's aft section, barreling towards them under the power of the ship's engines. The two sections collided, with the aft section continuing into the distance. In the words of writer Bill Ratigan, the remnants of the vessel disappeared into the darkness "like a great wounded beast with its head shot off".[2]
[edit] Overdue

The Morrell was not reported missing until 12:15pm the following afternoon, 30 November, after the vessel was overdue at its destination, Taconite Harbor, Minnesota. The U.S. Coast Guard issued a "be on the lookout" alert and dispatched several vessels and aircraft to search for the missing freighter.

At around 4:00 pm on 30 November a Coast Guard helicopter located the lone survivor, 26-year-old Watchman Dennis Hale, near frozen and floating in a life raft with the bodies of three of his crewmates. Hale had survived the nearly 40-hour ordeal in frigid temperatures wearing only a pair of boxer shorts, a lifejacket, and a pea coat.

The survey of the wreck found the shipwreck in 220 feet (67 m) of water with the two sections 5 miles (8.0 km) apart.[3]

The SS Edward Y. Townsend had a large crack in its deck that grew worse from the same storm, It was declared a total loss and was docked for almost two years. It would later be towed to Europe to be scrapped. On its way for scrapping it broke in two and sank in the same vicinity as the R.M.S. Titanic. The German saltie Nordmeer which had grounded at Thunder Bay Island Shoal on November 19 was declared a total loss after the additional damage to its bottom caused by the storm.

The destructive force of the November seas and wind were an important factor in this loss, as it has been in many similar incidents on the Great Lakes.[4] The Coast Guard investigation of the Morrell sinking concluded that it broke in half due to the brittle steel used in her hull which was a "common problem" in ships built before 1948.[5]

In addition to the *SS Edmund Fitzgerald, other contemporary Great Lakes freighters lost under similar circumstances were the SS Carl D. Bradley and the SS Henry Steinbrenner.
[edit] Victims

The following crew were lost in the sinking:

Bragg, Norman M., 40, Niagara Falls, NY, Watchman
Campbell, Stuart A., 60, Marinette, WI, Wheelsman
Cleary, John J., Jr., 20, Cleveland, OH, Deckhand
Crawley, Arthur I., 47, Rocky River, OH, Master
Dahl, George A., 38, Duluth, MN, Third Assistant Engineer
Davis, Larry G., 27, Toledo, OH, Deckwatch
Fargo, Arthur S., 52, Ashtabula, OH, Fireman
Fosbender, Charles H., 42, St. Clair, MI, Wheelsman
Grippi, Saverio, 53, Ashtabula, OH, Coal Passer
Groh, John M., 21, Erie, PA, Deckwatch (missing)
Homick, Nicholas P., 35, Hudson, PA, Second Cook
Kapets, Phillip E., 51, Ironwood, MI, First Mate
Konieczka, Chester, 45, Hamburg, NY, Fireman
MacLeod, Duncan R., 61, Gloucester, MA, Second Mate
Mahsem, Joseph A., 59, Duluth, MN, Porter



Marchildon, Valmour A., 43, Kenmore, NY, First Assistant Engineer
Marcotte, Ernest G., 62, Waterford, MI, Third Mate
Norkunas, Alfred G., 39, Superior, WI, Second Assistant Engineer
Price, David L., 19, Cleveland, OH, Coal Passer (missing)
Rischmiller, Henry, 34, Williamsville, NY, Wheelsman
Satlawa, Stanley J., 39, Buffalo, NY, Steward (missing)
Schmidt, John H., 46, Toledo, OH, Chief Engineer
Sestakauskas, Charles J., 49, Buffalo, NY, Porter
Simpson, Wilson E., 50, Albemarle, NC, Oiler
Stojek, Arthur E., 41, Buffalo, NY, Deckhand
Truman, Leon R., 45, Toledo, OH, Coal Passer
Wieme, Albert P., 51, Knife River, MN, Watchman
Worcester, Donald E., 38, Columbia Falls, ME, Oiler

The remains of 25 of the 28 lost crewmen were eventually recovered, most in the days following the sinking, although bodies from the Morrell continued to be found well into the spring of the following year. The three men whose bodies were never recovered were declared legally dead in May 1967..........................Name: Daniel J. Morrell
Operator: Cambria Steamship Company (M.A. Hanna Company, Mgrs.) 1908-1926
Cambria Steamship Company 1927-1929
Cambria Steamship Company (Bethlehem Transportation Company, Mgrs.) 1930-1966
Port of registry: United States
Builder: West Bay City Ship Building Company
Yard number: 00619
Completed: 1906
Identification: U.S. Registry #203507
Fate: Foundered and broke in two 29 November 1966
General characteristics
Class and type: Bulk Freighter
Tonnage: 7239 gross
5419 net
Length: 580 ft (180 m)
Beam: 58 ft (18 m)
Height: 27 ft (8.2 m)
Propulsion: triple expansion steam engine
Crew: 29

Thanks for the info hydrus
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8834
Here we go again with another day of more flood warnings as the wet March continues in Puerto Rico.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC037-053-089-103-119-301830-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0014.120330T1537Z-120330T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1137 AM AST FRI MAR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CEIBA
NAGUABO
FAJARDO
LUQUILLO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 230 PM AST

* AT 1134 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6574 1839 6571 1838 6570 1837 6562
1820 6566 1819 6567 1829 6586 1841 6586

$$

CASTRO

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15488
Haiti: Six killed in mudslide
Link
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8834
I hope continues to slide slowly ENE.

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Quoting MTWX:

Caffeine is a drug, and so is nicotine, and if anyone gets in between me and either of those vices, you are going to get hurt! ;)


never 2 late 2 quit on both
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Thanks Dr. Masters....Good morning all!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8834
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
0:00 AM JST March 31 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 15:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.9N 110.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 10.1N 109.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 10.7N 108.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 12.0N 106.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 18:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 49327
Quoting Patrap:
Isn't that the sound a Ostrich makes when it slams its head under the dirt me tinks?


LOL!
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Isn't that the sound a Ostrich makes when it slams its head under the dirt me tinks ?



: )
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Global warming...pfft.
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65. MTWX
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Caffeine is not so good, the more you drink, the more u will depend on it.

That is probably why so many of you "need" your morning cup of coffee.

It is like a drug.

By the way, does anyone know what threat the Euro has for the upcoming system?

Caffeine is a drug, and so is nicotine, and if anyone gets in between me and either of those vices, you are going to get hurt! ;)
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Caffeine is not so good, the more you drink, the more u will depend on it.

That is probably why so many of you "need" your morning cup of coffee.

It is like a drug.

By the way, does anyone know what threat the Euro has for the upcoming system?


Not much as the upper low moves SE into the eastern Gulf. Most of the action is going to be near the gulf coast next week it appears.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Caffeine is not so good, the more you drink, the more u will depend on it.

That is probably why so many of you "need" your morning cup of coffee.

It is like a drug.

By the way, does anyone know what threat the Euro has for the upcoming system?


I have a sugar addiction, thats why 4+ sunkists a day make me feel good
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Interesting stuff. Thanks DRM.
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Quoting MTWX:
WOW! Quite a few people on the blog this morning haven't had their caffeine yet (myself included)!! Cheers, and bottoms up everyone! ;)


Caffeine is not so good, the more you drink, the more u will depend on it.

That is probably why so many of you "need" your morning cup of coffee.

It is like a drug.

By the way, does anyone know what threat the Euro has for the upcoming system?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
60. MTWX
WOW! Quite a few people on the blog this morning haven't had their caffeine yet (myself included)!! Cheers, and bottoms up everyone! ;)
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Gee Sunday looks exciting! this is worse then last years april 27th outbreak!

xD
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GOM Sea Height Anomaly

2012



2011
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Forecast for FL is beginning to look active over the next week which is great news considering this is historically our driest month (April).
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GFDL Hurricane Prediction System Changes: Effective May 15, 2012

Excerpt:

- Bug fix in PBL scheme from 2003 implementation
- Bug fix in Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS) deep convection from 2010 implementation
- Implementation of GFS Shallow Convection
- Modification of the surface exchange coefficient (ch, cd)
- Modifications to GFS PBL scheme and momentum mixing term in SAS deep convection
- Detrained micro-physics generated in SAS and passed to Ferrier micro-physics scheme
- Reduced specification of storm size for larger storms



In tests of storms from the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, these improvements resulted in an average reduction of track forecast error of about 12 percent in the 2 to 5 day forecast time periods. The average reduction in intensity errors averaged nearly 20 percent in the Atlantic basin during the same forecast time periods for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, primarily through elimination of the large positive intensity bias.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. I am sure you understood what he meant and definitely don't need an English lesson on a weather blog. Any thoughts on the blob in the GOM ?
Yes, I understood what he meant, but did you understand what I meant? It won't cause him to exist--"effect" his life--but it definitely WILL "affect" him, change his life in ways that perhaps he does not realize. I was saying in brief what others have said more lengthily. And yes, an English lesson is in order when people do not SAY what they MEAN.
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Quoting Patrap:
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

click image for Loop

ZOOM is available



That's the most active I've seen the Gulf in a long time. If this trend of systems moving across the gulf coast continues then that would tend rob some of the moisture coming north hence a lower severe risk than what we experienced last year.
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Thanks Jeff...
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Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

click image for Loop

ZOOM is available

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Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast(HWRF) Model Changes: Effective May 15, 2012

Excerpt:

- Implement triple-nesting capability with a new centroid

based nest movement algorithm

- Configure the inner-most grid at cloud-resolving 3 km

horizontal resolution with explicit representation of

convective processes

- Implementation of GFS Shallow Convection

- Modifications to SAS deep convection, GFS PBL, GFDL

surface physics and Ferrier microphysics

parameterizations suitable for higher resolution and

based on observational findings

- Redesign of vortex initialization for 3 km resolution

with improved interpolation algorithms and better

representation of composite storm

- Improved POM initialization in the Atlantic domain and

new 1-D ocean coupling for Eastern Pacific basin

- Upgrade the HWRF GSI to V3.5 and use of new Hybrid

GSI/GFS for initial and boundary conditions once the

Hybrid GSI/GFS has been implemented operationally

- Improvements to HWRF Unified Post Processor to generate new

SSM/I simulated microwave satellite imagery products

- Very high-resolution (every 5 sec.) storm tracker output

to support National Hurricane Center (NHC) operations



Tracking every 5 seconds? How much could a storm move in that timeframe..............
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Uploaded by JeffId1 on Jan 17, 2012

Satellite sea ice for Arctic and Antarctic. The pixel resolution is 25km and the satellite ice data comes from the NSIDC Sea Ice Concentrations as collected from the Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I Passive Microwave systems. The compilation represents almost 3 GB of gridded data.


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Quoting ILwthrfan:



Sup Hydrus!

I am Mr. Jinx! You have no idea how many times I watched big storms charging straight at my location only to go poof! or even better make some obtuse detour only to re-adjust its previous after it has passed my town....sigh


No i am Mr Jinx.

I remember once i had 3 huge supercells headed right to my house, and the middle one died for no reason, putting me under a patch of clear skies about 1/8 of a mile wide, and withing 10 miles the to the east of me, the supercell was back and 15 mi east of me, again had a tornado warning.

And for all my weather watching, i have seen one good hail event 7 years ago, and 2 damaging wind events 65 mph.

Bet you cant top that. :)
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From New Scientist:

Arctic sea ice may have passed crucial tipping point

THE disappearance of Arctic sea ice has crossed a "tipping point" that could soon make ice-free summers a regular feature across most of the Arctic Ocean, says a British climate scientist who is setting up an early warning system for dangerous climate tipping points.

Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter has carried out a day-by-day assessment of Arctic ice-cover data collected since satellite observation began in 1979. He presented his hotly anticipated findings for the first time at the Planet Under Pressure conference in London on Monday.

Up until 2007, sea ice systematically fluctuated between extensive cover in winter and lower cover in summer. But since then, says Lenton, the difference between winter and summer ice cover has been a million square kilometres greater than it was before, as a result of unprecedented summer melting. These observations are in stark contrast to what models predict should have happened.

Despite fears of runaway sea-ice loss after summer cover hit a record low in 2007 - opening the Northwest Passage for the first time in living memory - modelling studies based on our best understanding of ice dynamics indicated the ice cover should fully recover each winter. "They suggest that even if the ice declined a large amount in one year, it should bounce back," says Walt Meier of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

Instead, Lenton's research shows a permanent alteration. According to data from the past five years, the Arctic sea ice has not recovered from the 2007 extreme low. "The system has passed a tipping point," Lenton says.

What caused the change is still unclear. Lenton speculates that the exceptional low in 2007 (pictured above) might have allowed the ocean to absorb so much heat that a lot of the thicker multiyear ice, which used to persist through the summer, was melted. Alternatively, the loss of ice may have changed air circulation patterns above the Arctic in ways that have similarly "locked in" the change.

Other glaciologists would not comment before seeing the details of the analysis, which have yet to be published in a journal. But if the findings are confirmed, they say, the existing models will have to be rewritten.

Elsewhere at the conference, Euan Nisbet of Royal Holloway, University of London, offered one particularly scary consequence of Arctic warming. He warned on Tuesday that warming ocean currents east of Greenland were melting ice in the seabed. This could trigger landslides on steep submarine slopes in the area, unleashing tsunamis capable of hitting the UK, and releasing buried methane that could amplify global warming. Something similar happened off Norway 8000 years ago in a similar geological setting, Nisbet told New Scientist.
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45. MTWX
Quoting ILwthrfan:




Sup Hydrus!

I am Mr. Jinx! You have no idea how many times I watched big storms charging straight at my location only to go poof! or even better make some obtuse detour only to re-adjust its previous after it has passed my town....sigh

Story of my life and what we like to call the Columbus Bubble!
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44. MTWX
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


not quite, read again,

it says:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ON MON/D4...A CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SRN PLAINS...BUT
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LOW EWD ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND INTO OK BY TUE MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER W CNTRL TX. WHILE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...THE PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY SEVERE AREAS. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THE SEVERE EVENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH HIGH END POTENTIAL.


FROM TUE/D5 ONWARD...THIS LOW WILL EITHER MEANDER EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST...OR MERGE WITH A NERN U.S. TROUGH AND PHASE ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME
LESS ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A REX-BLOCK PATTERN TO SET UP
D7-D8.



So although severe weather may occur, it shouldnt be that bad.

The cutoff low on the latest GFS is really pitiful, just falls apart and drifts to N FL before disappearing.


We all have mentioned before though, it only takes one.... Just use the Joplin tornado as reference...
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Quoting hydrus:
Maybe if you move here we will get a break..:)..Good morning .


Sup Hydrus!

I am Mr. Jinx! You have no idea how many times I watched big storms charging straight at my location only to go poof! or even better make some obtuse detour only to re-adjust its previous after it has passed my town....sigh
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For what it's worth, these temperature departures are
remarkable but not absolutely unprecedented in the Washington DC
area. We may have our warmest March of record.. it will be close.
The best analog I can remember is the last two weeks of February
and the first week of March 1976 which had April in February (rather
than May in March) conditions. Early spring vegetation ( daffodils, cherry
blossoms, plum blossoms, grass, magnolias etc) was slightly more
advanced that year but mid spring vegetation (Oak pollen, wisteria
and lilac blossoms, observed March 28) is MUCH more advanced
this year and is about three weeks early. In 1976, marked cooling the middle
of March and the first two weeks of April, prevented gross early flowering of mid and late spring vegetation. There was
a heat wave with five days of 90+ highs in mid April that year, April 16-20.
The rest of April and May 1976 were not remarkable for heat. A freeze
April 12 did a lot of damage in the Mid Atlantic area esp in the Piedmont.


That said I have never before seen this steady warmth in March which was remarkable for persistence. We would have set more records if not for frequent marine intrusions which kept us cloudy and in the low 60s on some days where more warmth was expected.

The warmth in the midwest was much more dramatic than here in DC.
One of the weather service offices in Michigan posted that March this year ranks with the top 10 APRILS for warmth.





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The most visible change in the Arctic region in recent years has been the rapid decline of the perennial ice cover. The perennial ice is the portion of the sea ice floating on the surface of the ocean that survives the summer. This ice that spans multiple years represents the thickest component of the sea ice cover.
This visualization shows the perennial Arctic sea ice from 1980 to 2012. The grey disk at the North Pole indicates the region where no satellite data is collected.



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The price of wisdom, is age.


All else is conjecture and pre-programmed conflict.
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Quoting MTWX:

If you look at SPC's latest 4-8 day though they tell you why...

Pretty much what I got out of it is this:

Severe weather will very likely happen; but, due to the forecast models being so far apart on their predictions, there is no telling where it is going to occur.


not quite, read again,

it says:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ON MON/D4...A CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SRN PLAINS...BUT
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LOW EWD ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND INTO OK BY TUE MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER W CNTRL TX. WHILE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...THE PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY SEVERE AREAS. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THE SEVERE EVENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH HIGH END POTENTIAL.


FROM TUE/D5 ONWARD...THIS LOW WILL EITHER MEANDER EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST...OR MERGE WITH A NERN U.S. TROUGH AND PHASE ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME
LESS ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A REX-BLOCK PATTERN TO SET UP
D7-D8.



So although severe weather may occur, it shouldnt be that bad.

The cutoff low on the latest GFS is really pitiful, just falls apart and drifts to N FL before disappearing.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


ok then.

ice loss wont affect my life!

hmmm...a closer beach to vacation in, thats awesome!! still wont negatively affect my life!


To whether it will or will not happen is always debatable, but how can you think that it would not result in negative effects on all sorts of levels?

-Massive population relocation. How many trillions of dollars would that cost? Just a rough est. here but isn't like some 40-50% of the worlds population within 100km of a coastline?

-Agricultural destruction of all of Florida and the fertile Valley of California?

-Then's the matter of all the destruction of coral reefs. Coral does not grow at a depth more than 60 ft. generally.

-Then there's the 25% of all marine life that is associated with this environment.

- Then there is also the Albedo effect, no more ice and snow to reflect the sun's rays. Which would lead to a warmer earth.

-Then there's the all the permafrost beneath a lot of this ice, which once thawed, releases methane.

But you would be spared from all the effects of this right?....
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35. MTWX
Quoting SPLbeater:
GeorgiaStormz was right that day 5 outlook didnt last:(

If you look at SPC's latest 4-8 day though they tell you why...

Pretty much what I got out of it is this:

Severe weather will very likely happen; but, due to the forecast models being so far apart on their predictions, there is no telling where it is going to occur.
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Quoting SteveDa1:
SPLbeater's comment raises an issue...

A lot of people don't care about global warming even if it were happening because they believe it doesn't affect them directly. As you probably know most people are self-centered and selfish. They have a "let others worry about that" mentality.

I think we need to hit them where it hurts, for them to understand.

To raise awareness about global warming I think it would be necessary to show people how it would affect them.

Also, as long as the government of any given country doesn't actively engage itself in ways to combat global warming I believe that most of the public will remain sceptical and/or apathetic about the subject.

Apologies for my rant this morning... :P


I don't think most people or governments are going to care until they actually SEE an obviously and irrefutably, primarily GW caused mega-disaster, which can't simply be explained as a combination of "natural long-term cycles."

Unfortunately, by the time pollution levels get that high, which is probably still a few decades away, it may be too late to stop the cycle from getting completely out of control.

We are already starting to see freakish Jet stream patterns and frontal behaviors, but it still hasn't gotten to the point where anyone is coming out saying, "Ok, that's a GW inspired mega-disaster." Maybe 5, 10, 15 years from now, but it's going to take a while, depending on the progression of positive albedo feed-backs in N. America and the Arctic.

Also, some of the changes seem to show central Asia has been slightly resistant to the positive feed-backs in terms of ice and snow packs from what I've seen on the satellite presentations, which is to say, this year is little different from the earlier years when they first started putting the terrestrial snow and ice on the graphics, but in the next few decades that may no longer be the case as regional tipping points are surpassed.
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Quoting SteveDa1:
SPLbeater's comment raises an issue...

A lot of people don't care about global warming even if it were happening because they believe it doesn't affect them directly. As you probably know most people are self-centered and selfish. They have a "let others worry about that" mentality.

I think we need to hit them where it hurts, for them to understand.

To raise awareness about global warming I think it would be necessary to show people how it would affect them.

Also, as long as the government of any given country doesn't actively engage itself in ways to combat global warming I believe that most of the public will remain sceptical and/or apathetic about the subject.

Apologies for my rant this morning... :P


and your approach is why people dont care..you cant MAKE people want to know about your beliefs, i.e, global warming..as SPL got kicked off for his religious beliefs which I saw nothing wrong with what he did as I was here blogging, it has to be pointed that your post warrants the same discretion. I personally dont believe in GW because of my OWN religious beliefs and if I explained why, then the admin(-s) would see me in getting banned. Cant have it both ways. There is no way that GW can be strictly about weather when I have seen politics and religion brought up in counter arguments.
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GeorgiaStormz was right that day 5 outlook didnt last:(
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Thanks Dr. Masters


Quoting SPLbeater:
ice loss wont effect my life!



Affect, not effect.
(That'll help you on a lot of english tests) :)


The D4 risk is not there, but NWS Jackson seems slightly concerned, Birmingham sees a hail and/or wind threat.

The cutoff low is trending even weaker.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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