Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog 

possible hook echo:

That tornado warning in MS is consistent with the current position of the southern US jet right over MS and sheer values. As you can see on the link below (and the chart post on the Blog) the jet is, currently, not positioned over the area of slight risk later today further to the East. Hopefully, while the t-storms might be bad, there will not be significant number of tornadoes and it will be limited to isolated tornadoes as is typically the case with these conditions.

Link

The CAPE values for West Coast FL this evening reach 2300...
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/cape_loop.html
Be interesting to see how much mid-and upper-level shear will be present.

Last year in February we had one of these events which hit the Port of Tampa with tornadoes on a similar setup. The tornadoes were throwing around several 45-foot steel intermodals on the dock.

Quoting thunderbug91:
The CAPE values for West Coast FL this evening reach 2300...
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/cape_loop.html
Be interesting to see how much mid-and upper-level shear will be present.

Look whats coming later. C and N FL are going to get SMACKED later. This will be interesting!!

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
That tornado warning in MS is consistent with the current position of the southern US jet right over MS and sheer values. As you can see on the link below (and the chart post on the Blog) the jet is, currently, not positioned over the area of slight risk later today further to the East. Hopefully, while the t-storms might be bad, there will not be significant number of tornadoes and it will be limited to isolated tornadoes as is typically the case with these conditions.

Link

i think there may be one with a strong storm near the low in N AL or GA.(which is near my house)
What i hope is that it does not hail or there is no tornado at my house, since i am not there right now.


meanwhile, there is light rain here in S Florida

Link
Correction: here is the NSSL CAPE link

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Look whats coming later. C and N FL are going to get SMACKED later. This will be interesting!!

Get ready to rock n'roll...
I'm gonna have my lightning gear set and ready....
hopefully some good pics later on

Quoting weatherh98:


It's a valid point though, why is Antarctica being exempt....

It isn't "exempt". The article provides a basic overview for a mechanism for the Antarctic behavior. There is more information in the paper itself. Link

Quoting thunderbug91:

Get ready to rock n'roll...
I'm gonna have my lightning gear set and ready....
hopefully some good pics later on

Did you guys get some rain last night in Tampa?

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
possible hook echo:

I see what you are pointing out (at the southern end of that line), but it doesn't look like a hook to me... more like a decaying storm on the line. There also isn't a couplet of rotation anywhere on that line.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Did you guys get some rain last night in Tampa?

Pinellas and Tampa got rain but my house barely got a drip

Quoting jeffs713:

I see what you are pointing out (at the southern end of that line), but it doesn't look like a hook to me... more like a decaying storm on the line. There also isn't a couplet of rotation anywhere on that line.

actually i was talking about the thing in the middle of the line for 1 or 2 frames before it dies, in the purple part.

it is no longer there..

Most of the MCS will die out by the time it reaches Florida, just like last nights event.

it is wierd being in Florida with all the florida people talking about fl.


GA rocks!!!!!!!!

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


actually i was talking about the thing in the middle of the line for 1 or 2 frames before it dies, in the purple part.

it is no longer there..

Ah, that... It is generally very difficult for a mesocyclone to set up in the middle of a solid bow echo like that. I've seen it, but its not common. Mesocyclones and tornadoes are much more common in discrete storms, where they can spin up without interference from other storms nearby.

Maybe some storms in Jax today? We'll see, they usually fizzle by the time they make it here.

sometimes these storms explode in intensity as they come across the GOM. I've seen it happen many times. Will be interesting to see if this one follows the same.

CPC says in the April update that Neutral ENSO will be declared later this month. About El Nino comming by Summer or Fall,they are cautious on that.

Link

90s forecasted for South and South Central Texas and this is behind the front.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
90s forecasted for South and South Central Texas and this is behind the front.

Hope you enjoyed our 3 weeks of spring. Summer is now here until October for TX.

Now where did I put the sunscreen...

Quoting jeffs713:

Hope you enjoyed our 3 weeks of spring. Summer is now here until October for TX.

Now where did I put the sunscreen...

Nice and green out there

Mid-level shear forecast to be in the 50-kt range tonight.

Miami NWS Discussion

UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE POP AND WEATHER
GRIDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS, MAINLY TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS.
WHILE MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
NOW PUSHED INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

WE ARE ALSO CLOSELY MONITORING A CLUSTER OF STORMS OFF THE
LOUISIANA COAST, WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER TODAY. AS THIS COMPLEX PUSHES STEADILY
TO THE SOUTHEAST, SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY, COLD AIR
ALOFT, AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KNOTS, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT - ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS - ALTHOUGH LARGE
HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. MORE DETAILS TO
COME THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWING ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

outflow boundary going out and storms bowing and collapsing.

could set the stage for later today.

Quoting jeffs713:

Hope you enjoyed our 3 weeks of spring. Summer is now here until October for TX.

Now where did I put the sunscreen...

Seems we did not get a winter here, not sure we got any spring, mid 90s here in February and now upper 80s to low 90s. 66 this morning which is well above normal whatever that is. Looks like a Hot and Humid Summer, I am already looking forward to September and our first front. Not a huge fan of hot and humid. My outdoor plants and flowers did not even freeze this winter that is how mild it was.

another 5 30 30 severe weather day.
right over my house, but i am not there, i am S of the 2% tornado risk in S florida, should go to Tampa tomorrow, when the 5% tornado is gone.
This is ridiculous, and people say these storms are not running from me.........

What is amazing to me is all this Rain we have received and Lake Travis is still 41 feet low, just shows you how dry it was last year. It is going to take Tropical system to fill up that Lake.

Blizzard Watch in montana.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
What is amazing to me is all this Rain we have received and Lake Travis is still 41 feet low, just shows you how dry it was last year. It is going to take Tropical system to fill up that Lake.

I can't believe I'm outta of the drought, just hope we keep getting it rest of this month and May, end of May the furnace is on permanently and then we have to rely on sea breeze action and tropical systems.

Quoting RitaEvac:


I can't believe I'm outta of the drought, just hope we keep getting it rest of this month and May, end of May the furnace is on permanently and then we have to rely on sea breeze action and tropical systems.

We need to avoid the TDR (TX Death Ridge) this year.. will the lack of La Nina have any affect on that??

Quoting JNCali:
We need to avoid the TDR (TX Death Ridge) this year.. will the lack of La Nina have any affect on that??

If we've got the rain we've been getting, I'd say that's a pattern change. When we had no rain for spring last year, that was a sign of things to come, this year we've got the rains

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
CPC says in the April update that Neutral ENSO will be declared later this month. About El Nino comming by Summer or Fall,they are cautious on that.

Link

Just as I thought. I am glad they are finally coming around to my way of thinking. I nailed this one. I knew it all along. (Where is my little sarcasm flag)

All kidding aside, if this forecast changes even a little, it could have a big impact on the season.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Most of the MCS will die out by the time it reaches Florida, just like last nights event.

No it won't as there is a jet streak and upper level energy moving in from the NW. Going to be very active here later.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT THU APR 05 2012

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SERN
U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH FRI.
TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN GRT BASIN AND THE LWR GRT LKS/NEW
ENGLAND WILL BOUND A RIDGE BUILDING N FROM THE PLNS STATES INTO
CNTRL CANADA. JUST E OF THE RIDGE...AR CLOSED LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE
ESE AS IT BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED BY THE NERN TROUGH. THE LOW SHOULD
REACH THE MS/AL BORDER THIS EVE...AND ERN GA EARLY SAT.

AT LWR LVLS...WEAK FRONT EXTENDING ESE FROM SE MO SFC LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE DRIFTING S ACROSS THE TN VLY...THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND
SC TODAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE OH VLY FROM THE UPR GRT LKS.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIFFUSE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW
SHOULD ADVANCE STEADILY E ACROSS THE GULF CST STATES. FARTHER
S...REMNANT COLD POOL LEFT BY YESTERDAY'S GULF OF MEXICO MCS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE N CNTRL AND NERN GULF.

SEVERAL AREAS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AR UPR LOW AND RELATED
FEATURES.

...SERN STATES TODAY INTO TNGT...
ONGOING SVR STORMS OVER LA/MS APPEAR RELATED TO VORT LOBE ROTATING
AROUND SE QUADRANT OF AR UPR LOW /REF MCD 454/. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
SPREAD ENE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MS AND POSSIBLY WRN AL LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE LOBE PIVOTS NEWD. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. BUT GIVEN COOL MID LVL TEMPS /AROUND
MINUS 18C AT 500 MB/ AND MODERATE...UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR...EXPECT THE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO YIELD SPORADIC LARGE HAIL.
THE SVR THREAT COULD INCREASE LATER TODAY FROM ERN MS INTO CNTRL/NRN
AL EWD AND NEWD INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF TN AND GA AS SFC HEATING
FOSTERS DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS...OR THE EXISTING ACTIVITY BECOMES
SFC-BASED. COMBINATION OF SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG S AND E OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTS AND 40+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR MAY YIELD A FEW
SUPERCELLS OR OTHER SUSTAINED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
INCREASING RISK FOR DMGG WIND...ESPECIALLY IN AL/GA.

FARTHER S...ONGOING LOOSELY ORGANIZED WAA STORMS NOW OVER SE LA AND
ADJACENT SRN MS/NRN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALSO SPREAD EWD
AS FLOW/ASCENT INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST. STRENGTHENING DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND SFC HEATING/EROSION
OF SHALLOW COOL DOME E OF THE STORMS...SUGGEST THAT NEW CELLS MAY
DEVELOP ON THE E SIDE OF EXISTING ACTIVITY. THIS COULD YIELD A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...WITH EMBEDDED BOWS THAT POSE AN RISK FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...N FL...AND
SRN/CNTRL GA DURING THE AFTN.

FARTHER E/NE...DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS ALSO MAY FOCUS ALONG SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT FROM TN ESE INTO SC. ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LVL COOLING...AND SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY RELATIVE TO POINTS W...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION AND LOW LVL
CONFLUENCE SHOULD EXIST FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTN. ONCE
INITIATED...COMBINATION OF INCREASING DEEP SHEAR AND MODEST SWLY LOW
LVL FLOW SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS ALSO WILL BE CAPABLE OF BOTH LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING THAT IS UNDERCUT BY THE
CONTINUED SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.

LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS
MAY ARISE OVER CNTRL AND SRN FL AS CONTINUED ESE MOVEMENT OF THE AR
UPR LOW ENHANCES LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CNTRL FL. WITH A MOIST...WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND WITH MID LVL WNWLY FLOW
INCREASING TO AOA 50S KTS...SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DMGG WIND...HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
922 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ON THE BACKSIDE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS WHICH IS
MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST COOLER
THAN INTERIOR AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST AND
UPPER 80S INLAND. COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT SUBSIDENCE REMAINS BEHIND THE MCS WHICH WILL INHIBIT
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NATURE COAST AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH
COLD AIR REMAINING ALOFT. MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL APPROACH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 22-23Z. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE NOT IMPRESSIBLE...STRONG U/L LOW WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND U/L DIFFLUENCE
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

20 inch steam pipe burst under 11th street in StL this a.m. Video on stltoday.com - sorry not good at the whole link thing.

We're on the top of the circulation - weird seeing rain clouds moving east to west, don't see that too often around here. With all the corn planted over last week, good timing. Hope it pops the big yellow morels too!

headed toward Tuscaloosa

544 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE MORE THAN ONE WAVE OF STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 10 AM AND 10 PM.

Right on schedule, it looks like.

Quoting Grothar:


Just as I thought. I am glad they are finally coming around to my way of thinking. I nailed this one. I knew it all along. (Where is my little sarcasm flag)

All kidding aside, if this forecast changes even a little, it could have a big impact on the season.

Grothar,what do you mean when you say "if the forecast changes a little,it could have a big impact on the season"?

Sun out now in S florida.

Could someone post the loop or link for the Gulf of Mexico AVN Color Infrared Loop spanning the last 24 hours? I can't get it to run that long. Tia.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Sun out now in S florida.

It may actually be more active in FL later than anywhere else in the Slight risk area as this developing MCS will be moving in later today as the atmosphere becomes more unstable due to the upper low charging SE toward N FL this evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
941 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 937 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES WEST OF PICKENSVILLE TO 15
MILES NORTHWEST OF EMELLE TO 15 MILES WEST OF BOYD...AND MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PICKENSVILLE...LIVINGSTON...ALICEVILLE...CARROLLTO N...EUTAW...
GORDO...EMELLE AND BOYD.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 17 THROUGH 45...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

Quoting JNCali:
We need to avoid the TDR (TX Death Ridge) this year.. will the lack of La Nina have any affect on that??

I think it should. El Nino winters tend to be cold and wet, but El Nino also makes the southern branch of the jet stream more active. The rainfall we've been blessed with the past few months has more to do with the AO and NAO working in our favor (or at least, not against us).

Historically, May, June, and October are our wettest months. Unless the pattern shifts again, a good chunk of the state should make up a good amount of ground on the drought, and get even closer to normal.

As for the death ridge, I'm hoping it stays in its "normal" position over the desert SW, but I have a suspicion that it will go SE this year, as is more typical of El Nino years. Since they are in a drought already... I hope that doesn't come to fruition.

New Blog!

Quoting RitaEvac:


I can't believe I'm outta of the drought, just hope we keep getting it rest of this month and May, end of May the furnace is on permanently and then we have to rely on sea breeze action and tropical systems.

Last summer was scary, RitaEvac. I do not wish to see a repeat of that again. Last year I had to water the Pecan trees enough to make sure they survived. I am glad we have caught some good rains and they are doing very well now. ... Speaking of which, my trees burst out into leafing on March 29 this year. I do not recall them ever leafing out before the end of April to the first week of May before now. What do you know about the "normal" leafing time for Pecan trees in this area?

Quoting Xyrus2000:


It isn't "exempt". The article provides a basic overview for a mechanism for the Antarctic behavior. There is more information in the paper itself. Link

Soooo I didnt understand the mechanism

.