North Carolina ignores science in sea level planning

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2012

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An interesting political battle is underway in North Carolina on how to plan for 21st century sea level rise, newsobserver.com reports. Sea level rise scientists commonly cite one meter (3.3 feet) as the expected global sea level rise by 2100, and more than a dozen science panels from coastal states, including a state-appointed science panel in North Carolina, agree. However, a coastal economic development group called NC-20, named for the 20 coastal counties in North Carolina, attacked the report, saying the science was flawed. NC-20 says the state should rely only on historical trends of sea level rise, and not plan for a future where sea level rise might accelerate. North Carolina should plan for only 8 inches of rise by 2100, based on the historical trend in Wilmington, NC, the group says. Republican state legislators introduced a bill that follows this logic, requiring the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission to make development plans assuming sea level rise will not accelerate. On Thursday, a state senate committee signed off on the bill, sending it to the full Senate. NC-20 also successfully made an "intense push" to get the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management, which is using a $5 million federal grant to analyze the impact of rising water, to lower its worst-case sea level rise scenario from 1 meter (39 inches) to 15 inches by 2100.


FIgure 1. Global sea level rise from 1992 - April 2012, as measured by three satellite instruments (TOPEX, Jason-1, and Jason-2.) Sea level rise has been relatively constant at about 3.1 mm per year (1.2 inches per decade) during this time period. The big downward dip during 2010 is due to the fact that year had a record amount of precipitation over land areas. By 2011, that precipitation had run-off into the oceans, bringing sea level back up again. Image credit: University of Colorado Sea Level Research Group.

Commentary
East Carolina University geologist Stan Riggs, a science panel member and coastal science expert, said of the proposed legislation, “We’re throwing this science out completely, and what’s proposed is just crazy for a state that used to be a leader in marine science. You can’t legislate the ocean, and you can’t legislate storms.” Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, had this to say in his latest post: "I would dismiss the proposed law as an attempt to legislate away that which stands in the way of our desires to consume and build for our personal imperatives. I would dismiss it as politics and note the names of the un-serious politicians for the next election." I agree with both of these assessments. The best science we have argues the planet will continue to warm, melting icecaps, causing accelerated sea level rise. Between 1900 - 2007, global sea level rose at 1.7 mm per year (Bindoff et al., 2007). Between 1993 - 2012, sea level rise accelerated to 3.1 mm per year, a 75% increase over the 20th century rate. If this accelerated rate continues to 2100, global sea level rise will be 10.7", which is higher than the 8" rise North Carolina is being told to plan for. The continuing accelerating trend in Greenland ice loss since 2000 I blogged about last month should make anyone leery of betting that sea level rise will not accelerate even more in the coming decades. Betting that sea level rise won't accelerate this century is like betting that a slowly intensifying tropical storm will maintain that slow rate of intensification, ignoring that the majority of the computer models are predicting the storm will rapidly intensify into a Category 3 hurricane at landfall. Sure, sometimes the models are wrong, but there is good science behind their predictions. If we wait until storm begins its rapid intensification to act, it will be a very costly mistake. The most sound action would be to prepare for the very plausible bad outcome our science is saying is most likely, instead of putting all of our chips on the low-probability, good-for-business outcome we hope for.

Sea, No Evil
Comedian Steven Cobert has a humorous piece on the new North Carolina sea level legislation in his June 4, 2012 Cobert Report. He uses the phrase "Sea, No Evil" to describe the affair. Some quotes:

"It would be a tragedy to lose precious coastal wildlife habitats to coastal flooding. Those habitats should be lost to developers' bulldozers."

"If your science gives you a result that you don't like, pass a law that the result is illegal--problem solved!"

Comedy Central reports on the recent decision by Virginia lawmakers to phase out use of the terms "climate change" and "sea level rise."

Resources:
Scientific America blog on the North Carolina sea level rise battle.
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a tropical tropical depression in the Western Caribbean this weekend, and takes the storm northwards into Florida early next week. None of the other models is going along with this idea, but there is some support for a broad area of low pressure developing in the Western Caribbean early next week in some of the other models. The waters offshore of North Carolina may be another region to watch, late this week, along the edge of a cold front moving off the U.S. East Coast.

I'll have a new post Wednesday or Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting allancalderini:
Hate tornadoes with a passion I am scare of them. last night I had a dream where tornadoes where all over my area.


I take it that you live in New Mexico?

If that is the case, no worris there appears to be one storm of many that has any capabilities of producing a tornado.

but tornadoes in New Mexico, though rare, can still be extremely dangerous are you by chance living in the county called "Curry" if so you may want to seek shelter. This cell looks dangerous
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133465
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
94E may briefly attain hurricane status but the main consensus is strong tropical storm intensity before landfall. After landfall takes place, a piece of the storm will likely move into the west Caribbean and could form a tropical cyclone.


The stronger it is, and the more north it turns. Will increase the chances of a storm forming in the nw Caribbean once Carlotta traverses central America which is shown by the models.
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I have updated my tropical Atlantic blog tonight...just now. I keep on rolling these out every 24 hours these days...enjoy....
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751. MTWX
Quoting Speeky:
possible tornado in New Mexico:


Tornado has been reported southwest of Clovis!
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750. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You are so lucky. It is currently 82 degrees outside, SAL is forecast to arrive in our area. Today the heat record in San Juan set in 1979 was tied, 94 degrees. It reached 97 degrees in Mayaguez.


Yeah, it's too hot too early, but on the other hand, excellent beach weather. xD
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665
WFUS54 KMAF 130248
TORMAF
TXC003-135-130315-
/O.NEW.KMAF.TO.W.0015.120613T0248Z-120613T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
948 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ECTOR COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL ANDREWS COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 946 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GOLDSMITH...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANDREWS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
GOLDSMITH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE
HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WEST TEXAS.



LAT...LON 3209 10240 3192 10266 3205 10278 3221 10273
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 301DEG 16KT 3208 10270
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133465
Quoting K8eCane:
does walmart sell head-on?

Apply Directly to the forehead! LOL! Storms missed me tonight...slid off to the east. Dry in Cedar Park, Texas atm.
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Quoting Speeky:
possible tornado in New Mexico:
Hate tornadoes with a passion I am scare of them. last night I had a dream where tornadoes where all over my area.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4488
Quoting Speeky:
possible tornado in New Mexico:

That's quite an intense supercell! Tornado warned too.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
854 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

NMC009-041-130315-
/O.CON.KABQ.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120613T0315Z/
CURRY-ROOSEVELT-
854 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL ROOSEVELT AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM MDT...

AT 854 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN CURRY
COUNTY...OR ABOUT 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORTALES...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY..
RURAL CURRY COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. LEAVE AUTOMOBILES AND MOBILE HOMES. MOVE
INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE WALLS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF A TORNADO...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. GO TO A SAFE PLACE NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 10365 3441 10333 3420 10345 3433 10366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 295DEG 16KT 3433 10356

$$


34
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Quoting txjac:
I just love it when I see the "older" people on the blog (join date) come in and make a post. Hard to believe the post count of some of the people that have been around for so many years ...



I don't comment often, but I lurk...and try to learn. Been lurking since well before I joined too.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
possible tornado in New Mexico:
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
94E may briefly attain hurricane status but the main consensus is strong tropical storm intensity before landfall. After landfall takes place, a piece of the storm will likely move into the west Caribbean and could form a tropical cyclone.


Barring any unforeseen spikes in the wind shear forecast, I should add. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34212
94E may briefly attain hurricane status but the main consensus is strong tropical storm intensity before landfall. After landfall takes place, a piece of the storm will likely move into the west Caribbean and could form a tropical cyclone.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34212
740. MTWX
Quoting MahFL:


You might be annoyed though if you spent $500 to evacuate your family and that evacuation was not needed.


A risk you take by living in a Hurricane prone area...

That's why I live close enough to the coast to make a weekend out of it, but far enough away that hurricanes don't give us too much hassle.
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Quoting K8eCane:
does walmart sell head-on?


I don't think it does, sadly.
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does walmart sell head-on?
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Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Yes.

I confront the wrongdoer when possible.



sounds like you need a wipe
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59118
Best picture I've seen of it so far (not taken by me):



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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You are so lucky. It is currently 82 degrees outside, SAL is forecast to arrive in our area. Today the heat record in San Juan set in 1979 was tied, 94 degrees. It reached 97 degrees in Mayaguez.

Nobody told you to live in Puerto Rico.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34212
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Currently 72 and light rain at my house.

You are so lucky. It is currently 82 degrees outside, SAL is forecast to arrive in our area. Today the heat record in San Juan set in 1979 was tied, 94 degrees. It reached 97 degrees in Mayaguez.
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Uh why are we bringing politics up again?..Back to weather please :).
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Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


He may have...

It's tiring seeing this trash on here every single day.

I guess so.

I'm out.
Stay safe, all.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25653
Currently 72 and light rain at my house.
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Quoting Patrap:
HAL, open the pod door.

GOES-13 Channel 3 (WV)




door is wide open

welcome aboard hal



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59118
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'll put it in our Florida native tongue.

Them there waters in the ocean are colder and it aint gonna rain like it should.



LOL, it wasn't the PDO mentioning that was strange to me, it's that apparently I'm a 2000's baby.
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Some of my rainbow pictures from earlier:







Unfortunately, they were taken with my crappy phone camera, so they really don't do it justice.
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UK researchers have developed a porous material that can preferentially soak up and store CO2 from the atmosphere, exhaust systems, smoke stacks...

Interesting article.

I found that on the BBC news website if anyone is interested.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25653
Cupola hit by minor MMOD strike, shutter closed for evaluations

June 12th, 2012 by Chris Bergin

Window 2 on the Cupola module has been hit by a minor MicroMeteoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) strike. With the window's protective shutter closed, per flight rules, ISS managers are evaluating photos of the damage downlinked from the International Space Station (ISS) before they are expected to give the crew clearance to reopen the shutter.



After arriving at the ISS with Node 3, during Endeavour's STS-130 mission, the European Space Agency (ESA) built Cupola has provided Station crews with a stunning view of the planet, often shared with the public via downlinked photography.

The module also hosts a Robotic Work Station (RWS), allowing crewmembers to actually see Visiting Vehicles (VVs) such as SpaceX's Dragon and Japan's HTV arrive for berthing, complimenting the camera views of their displays, allowing for increased situational awareness when operating the Station's robotic assets.

The Cupola's seven windows were exposed to space for the first time during STS-130's EVA-3, following the removal of the module's MLI blanket insulation by spacewalkers Bob Behnken and Nick Patrick.

After the spacewalkers removed the launch locks on the windows, the ISS crew cycled the window shields/shutters one at a time, providing them with the first view of the Earth from their new observation deck.

All of the windows weren't open at the same time, with the task simply used to check the shutters opened without a problem. A few hours later, all of the windows were opened together, an event that is now commonplace on the ISS.

The module has hardly suffered from any issues during its tour of duty with the orbital outpost, with only a minor temperature issue noted ahead of Dragon's arrival last month.

Through no fault of its own, the MMOD strike is a risk all spacecraft have to deal with, although exposed windows are built to withstand such impacts.

This latest strike, to Window 2 on the Cupola, looks more dramatic via close up photos, but is in reality very small and probably would not have been instantly obvious to crewmembers entering the module.

Cupola Window MMOD Strike On June 10, the crew reported an MMOD strike on Cupola window 2 and downlinked photos (full set available on L2) of it, noted L2 level ISS Status (LINK). The shutter for window 2 is closed now, as required by flight rules, until the MMOD strike has been evaluated.

Teams are working to determine the structural implications of the MMOD strike and clear the window 2 shutter for re-opening if possible.

The flight rules are naturally cautious, in order to ensure a large amount of margin for crew safety. It is highly likely this will be cleared as an issue after the evaluations are completed.

It is understood that this MMOD strike is the first to be suffered by a Cupola window.

In the event of the damage being more serious, on-orbit replacement of an entire window is a design feature. Such a replacement would require an EVA to fit an external pressure cover to allow for the changeout, with a pressure cover requiring a flight up to the ISS.

The window is made up of four panes an inner scratch pane to protect the pressure pane from accidental damage, two pressure panes 25mm thick to maintain cabin pressure, and finally an outer debris pane. The debris panes can be replaced individually, via EVAs.

Strikes of these tiny pieces of debris are relatively commonplace and are only immediately noticeable when they impact on areas such as windows.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133465
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Seriously, is the only time you post here to confront WxGeekVA?


Quoting pottery:

Sounds like he stepped on your corns there.....


Please don't quote him. I have him on ignore for a reason.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



ok?


I'll put it in our Florida native tongue.

Them there waters in the ocean are colder and it aint gonna rain like it should.
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I just wrote a blog on the rather active Northern Hemispheric tropics Enjoy, offer insight, tell me I'm lame, whatever you wanna do.
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MODIS True Color images for 06/11/2012
Click any thumbnail for a full-resolution image


Yucatan Peninsula
Terra-1 12/06/11 1615 UTC


Florida and Bahamas
Terra-1 12/06/11 1615 UTC


Louisiana Coast
Terra-1 12/06/11 1615 UTC
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133465
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Are you done?

that's getting old...

Sounds like he stepped on your corns there.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25653
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Are you done?

that's getting old...

Seriously, is the only time you post here to confront WxGeekVA?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34212
do someone really think we will get Chris from the southeast coast as models are predicting?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4488
715. MahFL
Quoting Jedkins01:
I don't know about you, but if I prepare for a hurricane that meteorologists are sure will hit me, but for whatever reason it doesn't, I'm not going to be saying oh crap..


You might be annoyed though if you spent $500 to evacuate your family and that evacuation was not needed.
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Heh!
A violent little squall passing through, heavy rain with flashes and rumbles and wind....

I could hear it coming for about 5 minutes.
NICE !
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25653
The 30 day SOI has tanked to El Nino threshold. Now we have to see if it stays below that -8 line or it stairsteps up and down.

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Quoting Patrap:
HAL, open the pod door.

GOES-13 Channel 3 (WV)



You trying to get in, or out?
Enquiring minds want to know.

:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25653
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Hey Levi!


Hey :)
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That would be an understatement. You joined one day before me and you have a whopping 12000 more comments than me.

See, you on the other hand don't post a lot. :P

Or maybe I just don't have a life lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34212
HAL, open the pod door.

GOES-13 Channel 3 (WV)


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133465
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I post a lot... :P

That would be an understatement. You joined one day before me and you have a whopping 12000 more comments than me.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



ok?

He was just pointing out something he found cool and was offering insight to why your weather has been the way it has. No need to see so uninterested. :p
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34212

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About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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