Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog 

from the 2pm update....GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS INTRUDING OVER THE FAR NE
BASIN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF FROM 29N92W TO
25N85W. DOPPLER RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 130 NM NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AS WELL AS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 90W-95W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS HAVE
REPORTED GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD AND DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR 27N92W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
LOUISIANA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER AREA OF ACTIVE
WEATHER TO WATCH FOR IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND COASTAL
WATERS NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE OUTER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA IS AFFECTING THIS REGION WITH
SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 22N W OF 91W. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

Quoting BDAwx:
Looks like there is some dry air in the northwestern quadrant of Guchol and it appears to be eroding the eye wall in that sector, don't quite think its an eye wall replacement cycle.
Probably peaked already (for now?), either way insane winds in that storm; the 70-80mph sustained winds with 100-110mph wind gusts I saw in Hurricane Fabian were incredible. Have no idea what >175mph sustained winds would look like. Have a feeling it all looks the same after 130mph...

I went through a similar thing when I lived in NC as a kid in Hurricane Fran 1996. That's the storm that got me interested in tropical weather...

.............................This is Houston tower..we have..errr rain, almost said liftoff lol

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hurricane Felix would have been the last Category 5 in the Atlantic, so we haven't seen one in 5 years.

So the atlantic is due for a big storm... Not that Ike or Igor weren't big enough haha

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I went through a similar thing when I lived in NC as a kid in Hurricane Fran 1996. That's the storm that got me interested in tropical weather...

Hurricane Fabian was what got me interested in weather too! :D

Link
Train from Carlotta to past Bermuda.

Daily SOI: 8.5
30 Day SOI: -6.8
90 Day SOI: -3.8

Quoting BDAwx:


Hurricane Fabian was what got me interested in weather too! :D

And we both started blogging on here at about the same time...summer of '09...LOL. I can tell because it shows everyone's start date at the bottom of everyone's post.

TIME STAMP 313

10 MINS OLD

Quoting BDAwx:


Hurricane Fabian was what got me interested in weather too! :D

Mine was Christobal O.o

This afternoon's HPC discussion regarding future development in BOC.

"THE DAYS 3-7 TUE-SAT FCST STARTS WITH A BLEND OF 00Z GEFS/12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO REFLECT PREFERENCES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS
BLEND LEANS 70 PCT TO THE ECMWF MEAN DAYS 3-5 DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL ISSUES WITH THE GEFS MEAN... WHILE
SHIFTING BACK TO A 50/50 BLEND DAYS 6-7 AS THE ECMWF MEAN
PARTIALLY REFLECTS THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS THAT WERE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ERN PAC TROF. ANY WRN GULF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY FCST TO TRACK S OF THE RIO GRANDE AS PER
YDAYS NHC/HPC COORDINATION AND EXTRAPOLATION INTO DAY 7."

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

And we both started blogging on here at about the same time...summer of '09...LOL. I can tell because it shows everyone's start date at the bottom of everyone's post.

Hey NC....thanks for the blog update

GOM TCHP

T-storms poppin up over Venezuela. Sorry for the horrid quality.

img src="">

Quoting washingtonian115:
Nice pinhole eye.But since it's threatening land it has to go.And die a miserable death over the cold waters of the pacific.

so you are a fish killer. >:|
you should have learned from finding nemo what happens to fish killers..

lol, jk

i see that chris is now forecasted to beat the high pressure to tx, that is the one thing that will affect its track the most

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Link
Train from Carlotta to past Bermuda.

Had 2-3" of rain in Bermuda yesterday - caused some morning rush hour flash flooding :S. Maybe some moisture from Carlotta helped it out?

Quoting nigel20:

Hey NC....thanks for the blog update

No problem...a day like this the atmospheric setup is complex in the Atlantic....and I try to show it all. If there are any comments on how to make those posts better...let me know. I want it to make sense for all that read...

Quoting nigel20:
Good afternoon everyone!

Greeting.

wait a minute, the ggem is not the same as the cmc, right, they are only related?

i am most likely wrong.

Wow it could be very interesting come late next week from what the models are saying :o). Although really we do not need any more rain on the north gulf coast thats for sure, after last weekends 15 to 24 inches or rain....

Taco:o)

Quoting hydrus:
Greeting.

Hey hydrus...what are the reports, if any from Mexico?

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06
3:00 AM JST June 17 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 19.3N 111.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 19.7N 112.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - South China Sea

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wow...luckily it'll not affect land near peak intensity

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06
3:00 AM JST June 17 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 19.3N 111.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 19.7N 112.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - South China Sea

I wonder what the JTWC will use for Guchol's intensity... New advisory should be out in a little over an hour.

12z gfs shows chris beating the high pressure wall by a lot, being strongest 12-24 hours AFTER landall and then taking the usual route to the great leakes.

strange, but this could mean that the high pressure barrier in fact will not be there to turn chris to mexico

chris looks to originate when it splits from a pacific low at 96hrs, yes only 4 days...

It is also a very slow mover



houston is the largest city to watch. from about anywhere 100miles w to 300miles e of houston seems to be the main target.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I said something a few nights ago about how I didn't care about TS Guchol in the W-Pac because I was biased to the Atlantic....

I hope I didn't tick off Guchol and caused its intensification. Guchol...you've earned my respect....

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I said something a few nights ago about how I didn't care about TS Guchol in the W-Pac because I was biased to the Atlantic....

I hope I didn't tick off Guchol and caused its intensification. Guchol...you've earned my respect....

Guchol is quite impressive....i hope that i'll never experience anything like it or stronger...

997mb and below, cat 1 i think
near houston

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
12z gfs shows chris beating the high pressure wall by a lot, being strongest 12-24 hours AFTER landall and then taking the usual route to the great leakes.

strange, but this could mean that the high pressure barrier in fact will not be there to turn chris to mexico

chris looks to originate when it splits from a pacific low at 96hrs, yes only 4 days...

It is also a very slow mover

Models outputs I see don't do the best job in showing tropical wave propagation. I think "Chris" (if it happens) is going to start from the tropical wave located this afternoon in the central Caribbean. Detailed the scenario in paragraph P11 on my recent blog post....

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
12z gfs shows chris beating the high pressure wall by a lot, being strongest 12-24 hours AFTER landall and then taking the usual route to the great leakes.

strange, but this could mean that the high pressure barrier in fact will not be there to turn chris to mexico

chris looks to originate when it splits from a pacific low at 96hrs, yes only 4 days...

It is also a very slow mover



houston is the about anywhere from 100miles w to 300miles e of houston seems to be the main target.

Very impressive!

Folks on the gulf coast from Texas to the panhandle of Florida will be watching the tropics soon.

FYI, this setup will be useless and will be worse for TX

0.32" at house, 2" 5 miles down the road

Hey RitaEvac,
Its like I said we just don't need anymore rain here for a while after getting 15 to 24 inches last weekend on the North Gulf Coast.... Heck I thought we were having a Tropical Storm here in Mobile because of all the rain we had.... It was Crazy thats for sure :o)

Taco :o)

Below is a photo I took of the air piling up in the Gulf of Mexico
















It's hard to see.......cause its AIR!

Quoting taco2me61:
Hey RitaEvac,
Its like I said we just don't need anymore rain here for a while after getting 15 to 24 inches last weekend on the North Gulf Coast.... Heck I thought we were having a Tropical Storm here in Mobile because of all the rain we had.... It was Crazy thats for sure :o)

Taco :o)

IF the thing even develops which it doesn't even exist right now, it's all gonna depend on where it starts. Too close to Mexico and it's gonna be taking the rain there with it, too far out in the BOC and it's gonna go to LA taking the rain with it. In order for TX to get good rains, it's gonna have to be a large system, and form closer to TX coast, other than that.....we aint getting nuttin then.

Quoting hydrus:
Folks on the gulf coast from Texas to the panhandle of Florida will be watching the tropics soon.

big storm there.

houston may have a problem if this is anything like carlotta.
the model representations are similar, but the gfs never showed carlotta below 992mb i think, so they will need to be careful.
not even bud showed below that.

Quoting RitaEvac:


IF the thing even develops which it doesn't even exist right now, it's all gonna depend on where it starts. Too close to Mexico and it's gonna be taking the rain there with it, too far out in the BOC and it's gonna go to LA taking the rain with it. In order for TX to get good rains, it's gonna have to be a large system, and form closer to TX coast, other than that.....we aint getting nuttin then.

I gree with this..... and would love to see TX or even Mexico get some of this rain..... No don't get me wrong I do not want to see a "Storm" but they can have the rain thats for sure :o)

Taco :o)

The 84 hour CRAS model has an impressive system moving across Cuba into the Florida Straits. It looks to be a depression before making landfall. If all this pans out, it will be bad news for a lot of folks in the panhandle.24.48.72.84.

i can see the blog going crazy already:

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
i can see the blog going crazy already:

Not over a 1002mb low

It shows up on the Precip water nicely..84..

If Chris forms around June 20 or so...does anyone know if this would be the earliest 3rd named Atlantic storm on record?

Quoting NCHurricane2009:
If Chris forms around June 20 or so...does anyone know if this would be the earliest 3rd named Atlantic storm on record?

No. It wouldnt be.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
i can see the blog going crazy already:

12zGFS Ensemble Means do not agree with that scenario tho.