Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

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	Typhoon Guchol approaches southern Japan; 95L no threat to U.S.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 7:45 PM GMT on June 18, 2012

Typhoon Guchol is a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of 110 mph, gusting to 130mph. Guchol is on a path to southern Japan, where it is expected to make landfall Tuesday evening. The typhoon is moving north-northeast at 20 mph, and has been weakening, a trend that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center thinks will continue. Guchol's eye is completely clouded over, and the heavy thunderstorms on the west side of the typhoon have weakened, possibly due to an increase in wind shear from the west. Both Guchol and Talim, a tropical storm in the South China Sea, are drenched in tropical moisture. The elements that prevent Guchol from maintaining its strength are increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperature.

Figure 1. High resolution, true color satellite imagery from MODIS of Typhoon Guchol captured today, June 18th, at 12:45 am EDT.

Forecast for Guchol
Guchol is forecast to weaken further as it continues its track northeast toward Japan. Sea surface temperature will decrease as the typhoon moves north out of favorable water, and wind shear is expected to continue to increase. Guchol will probably start to become non-tropical as it makes landfall near Kyoto. However, tropical storm conditions, heavy rain and gusty winds will likely affect a large portion of Japan through Wednesday. The Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts that up to 16 inches of rain (40 cm) is possible from Guchol, and so flash flooding and landslides are a potential hazard from the storm.

North Atlantic Invest 95L

An area of thunderstorms in the North Atlantic now has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, according to the National Hurricane Center. 95L originally spun up as a non-tropical disturbance, but is starting to gain tropical characteristics. It's possible that, if 95L gains enough strength, it will be characterized as subtropical. This system poses no threat to the U.S. or Canada—models agree that 95L will track east away from North America, and will likely remain weak should it develop.

Figure 2. North Atlantic invest 95L as of 2pm EDT on June 18th.

Angela

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851. Tropicsweatherpr 2:55 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
12z Surface Analysis places the low just east of Belize. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8260

852. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 2:55 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

853. hurricaneben 2:57 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Can South Florida see serious flooding from this rainfall event? I think the Keys may be hit very hard too. Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 330 Comments: 599

854. Darren23 2:58 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
How long has that burst of convection for 95L been around? If it has only been there for about 2-4 hours, I would wait for another few hours for the convection to persist, to make sure that it's not just a random burst. Member Since: June 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 36

855. gordydunnot 2:58 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Good one Cybrteddy at least we try to have a since of humor down here. If you don't your gonna have a short life expectancy here. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

856. stillwaiting 3:22 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
I'd keep a eye on the area around 17.5N,87.5W,sheers to high now,but as that area drifts north and stalls over central/eastern south GOM,sheer is forecast to be conducive in about 36-48hrs (in southern gom/nw carib),could then end up developing into a TD or weak TS and go into the west coast of fl or big bend area,other scenerio it goes west as the high builds over the plains,that would likely result in a hurricane headed towards tx/la,all depends on the strength,postion and timing of the forecast high presssure-my mini forecast Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

857. aspectre 3:33 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Moved to NEW BLOG Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

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