Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog 

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It is bad!!

I know, I feel we aren't getting enough play about how bad it is out there. Everyone is talking about the LA area. We've got areas that are still flooded from rain that was 7 days ago. It's crazy, I've never seen it that bad here ever.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It would have to stall for several days for upwelling to become an issue.

it's shear size will cause up-welling that combined with it's slow movement.

All Palm Beach County public schools open Tuesday

Quoting Skyepony:


Check out the gfs & cmc too. Both bring a smaller storm from the SE over the FL panhandle. CMC rakes west FL & ends the 5 day run with it on SFL. GFS keeps it off shore of West FL til it' builds a little than into big bend & across NFL, being pulled by Leslie.

yes it sure looks like florida is going to get something this week, most of the models are pointing to it now..thanks, i still cant find out how strong it will be,hope its nothing more that a TS.

Quoting AussieStorm:

it's shear size will cause up-welling that combined with it's slow movement.

Agree.Larger systems up well more water faster than a smaller system would.There have been several examples.To lazy to name right now.

Quoting LargoFl:
GT you lurking?..Nam at 84 hours, we get hit with something

Hey Largo I saw your post and the Tampa Bay discussion may be addressing what you're seeing?

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS INTERIOR
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE POOLS UP ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE TROPICAL
IN NATURE AND NOT SEVERE.

Quoting E46Pilot:


I know, I feel we aren't getting enough play about how bad it is out there. Everyone is talking about the LA area. We've got areas that are still flooded from rain that was 7 days ago. It's crazy, I've never seen it that bad here ever.

This is from a blog Dr M done a few days ago.


Wouldn't these rain amounts account for the deficit in South and central Florida as shown on this rainfall map.

Quoting AussieStorm:

looks like a cold front to me.

Yo, NHC,,, Good luck with this forecast.
INIT 03/0900Z 23.8N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 24.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.5N 62.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 26.1N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 26.6N 62.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 27.6N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 28.7N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 30.8N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

A slow moving system is it's own worst enemy.
no matter how hot the water is.

..hope your right, there is still flood warnings in parts of florida

Quoting AussieStorm:

it's shear size will cause up-welling that combined with it's slow movement.

Its movement will be slow, not nearly non-existent. It's not like it will be moving at 2 mph.

Quoting icmoore:


Hey Largo I saw your post and the Tampa Bay discussion may be addressing what you're seeing?

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS INTERIOR
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE POOLS UP ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE TROPICAL
IN NATURE AND NOT SEVERE.

many thanks..hope this doesnt develop into anything, this time of year is dangerous in the gulf

Quoting AussieStorm:


This is from a blog Dr M done a few days ago.


Wouldn't these rain amounts account for the deficit in South and central Florida as shown on this rainfall map.

While we may have a deficit of the normal amount of rain....we are by no means anywhere near a drought condition. I believe that deficit comes from us having a very dry Jan-March.

From the Miami NWS Disco...

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE EASTERN AND INTERIOR AREAS TODAY...

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THE WESTERN AREAS
OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER THE DRY AIR THAT IS SURROUNDING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO A SLIGHT 10
PERCENT OVER THE WEST COAST AND AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE 12Z MIA SOUNDING IS ALSO SHOWING THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED TO AROUND -9C THIS MORNING...AND
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND -9C TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS
TODAY TO BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST AREAS.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND HAIL.

WINDS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE THE INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HAIL: NICKEL SIZE TO EVEN QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

FLOODING: ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IN LOXAHATCHEE GROVES AREA. AS A RESULT...THE
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES DUE TO EASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE INTERIOR AND EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE WEST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEK.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE EASTERN AND INTERIOR AREAS TODAY...

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THE WESTERN AREAS
OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER THE DRY AIR THAT IS SURROUNDING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO A SLIGHT 10
PERCENT OVER THE WEST COAST AND AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE 12Z MIA SOUNDING IS ALSO SHOWING THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED TO AROUND -9C THIS MORNING...AND
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND -9C TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS
TODAY TO BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST AREAS.

Damn, looks like I am going to have to go buy some more tarps for the roof. There not replacing my roof for another 2 weeks.

Quoting LargoFl:
yes it sure looks like florida is going to get something this week, most of the models are pointing to it now..thanks, i still cant find out how strong it will be,hope its nothing more that a TS.

Quoting icmoore:






Hey Largo I saw your post and the Tampa Bay discussion may be addressing what you're seeing?

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS INTERIOR
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE POOLS UP ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE TROPICAL
IN NATURE AND NOT SEVERE.

I was noticing this last night and for 2 runs in a row the GFS shows something as well as the Euro and the Canadian.

Could be something like TS Henri in 2003:

Is that development in the GOM what's left over of Isac?

NHC 8 a.m.
TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N35W 16N35W 13N36W.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. THIS WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.



next aoi imo

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its movement will be slow, not nearly non-existent. It's not like it will be moving at 2 mph.

it's moving at 8mph right now. in 1 day at it's present movement it center will travel 192miles. It's tropical wind field is 205miles, which mean's it will be in the shadow of it's previous 24hr. Wind over water for 24hrs to 36hrs will cause up-welling.

In 5 days the NHC is forecasting Leslie to travel 7°, which equates to 345.55miles (1°
Lat = 69.11miles)

GFS 120 hrs. Leslie and the next system off of Africa could be Michael or Nadine depending on what happens in the Gulf.

Fresh ASCAT:

This seems suspicious. Off Canadian coast.

Quoting AussieStorm:


This is from a blog Dr M done a few days ago.


Wouldn't these rain amounts account for the deficit in South and central Florida as shown on this rainfall map.

well it looks like our drought could be ending soon. greetings all

Quoting E46Pilot:
Is that development in the GOM what's left over of Isac?

Looks like about 1/3 of Isaac + some trough.

I believe that some models are forecasting the extra-tropical low of Isaac to move into the Southeast. It is possible that the GOM low does originate from that..

Quoting E46Pilot:
Is that development in the GOM what's left over of Isac?

Quoting E46Pilot:
Is that development in the GOM what's left over of Isaac?

Nope. Isaac or what's left of his circulation is just NW of Louisville.

Link

Quoting HurrAndrew:


This seems suspicious. Off Canadian coast.

It's odd how they are stacked with that N of Leslie...Meteocane stacked N over that huge blob over Africa.

Quoting HurrAndrew:


This seems suspicious. Off Canadian coast.

That is one of the ULL steering Leslie. If you ask me it looks Baroclinic.

North Atlantic Water Vapor Loop

Quoting HurrAndrew:


This seems suspicious. Off Canadian coast.

Phase Diagrams (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/)
especially CMC do give it some sub-tropical cyclone characteristics, and it stays over warm enough water for the next few days..

Quoting AussieStorm:

Nope. Isaac or what's left of his circulation is just NW of Louisville.

Link

It is over KY but watch the CMC..trough comes along, splits the moisture shoving some south into the Gulf of Mexico.

150 hours:

Quoting GTcooliebai:


I was noticing this last night and for 2 runs in a row the GFS shows something as well as the Euro and the Canadian.

Could be something like TS Henri in 2003:

hiya GT, glad you came on,we need to watch this for sure

Off for festivities.. Happy Labor Day all!

Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

thanks doc

Quoting AussieStorm:

Nope. Isaac or what's left of his circulation is just NW of Louisville.

Link

Wow, that's a really cool wind map.

Quoting K8eCane:


HA Press in a dress LOVEIT. He did it for Portlight. Thats a good man

That pic of Presslord in a dress was 1st posted by Presslord several years ago and has been re-posted many times since.. I think it had something to do with a fund raiser for PORTLIGHT but I'm a bit hazy on that. Point is, no one was offended and it was never removed, untill today. So a big thankyou goes out to all of the blog cops and Wunder admins for being such killjoys. I speak only for myself.

Quoting K8eCane:
if anybody is able to donate a dollar or two to Portlight...they do come to your rescue if u need it when a storm hits...they have generators and chainsaws and volunteers....i mean if Press can put on a dress.....

The folks in North Florida who got flooded earlier this year are still waiting.

Quoting Neapolitan:
The EAtl swirl, the Mediterranean cyclone, and the next two African wave-train candidates:



...and in living color:

So it's possible we get Michael from 99L, Nadine from the wave around 30W/11N, and maybe Oscar and Patty from those two waves over the African continent. What are your guys' thoughts?

Quoting goalexgo:
Michael looks wonderful this morning. But its old Nadine that we have to concern ourserves with. Shes mean, and could be the Florida storm that everyone touts.

I'm surprised the NHC didn't make a mention of that area of convection. It looks somewhat impressive.

Quoting flcanes:

wasn't last year's storm named rolf
i think the nhc should have a claim to storm's, if not, let the swedes handle e'm

IIRC the eastern border of the NHC's area of responsibility is 0° East/West.

The last years storm was named Rolf by the FU Berlin. Since about sixty years, highs and lows have been named by the Free University of Berlin, alternating men's names and women's names each year, 2012 the lows are female and the highs are male. (Next year it will be vice versa.)

Those names used to be common within Germany first but beginning with Lothar 1999 came to be used in other countries as well and nowadays are used through the greater part of Europa. Those names are not used in the U.K. and probably not in Norway either since in Norvay they have their own naming pattern.