Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

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	Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters

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701. allancalderini 12:56 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Poor Korea if that track verifies. Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2018

702. washingtonian115 12:58 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride: This is not the Atlantic Basin. And there is no seeding efforts going on. No chance. I know this isn't the Atlantic :).It's just that I'm waiting for the natural enemies of T.C's to do their work on Sanba.People are in the path.Be different if it was swirling out in the pacific minding it's business then I wouldn't mind it being this strong. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10594

703. sunshineandshowers 12:58 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Sanba's RI has been mindblowing. I didn't check on here, as I thought it'd be 24hrs plus to organise..and then I casually look to see what's happening and I'm completely shocked! Classic September Philippines region RI. A serious storm, indeed. I think we could see her peak at 180mph at this rate. Plenty of energy ahead, and plenty of time to go through several EWRCs. I don't understand how some people only focus on the atlantic when this is happening! Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 69

706. HadesGodWyvern 1:02 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23 TYPHOON SANBA (T1216) 21:00 PM JST September 13 2012 ====================================== SUBJECT: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (910 hPa) located at 16.3N 129.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots. Dvorak Intensity: T6.5 Storm Force Winds ================= 120 NM from the center Gale Force Winds =============== 270 NM from the center Forecast and Intensity ======================= 24 HRS: 19.7N 128.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines 48 HRS: 23.6N 127.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa 72 HRS: 29.3N 126.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36684

707. washingtonian115 1:03 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Is it a shame that some of my co-workers want Sanba to hit Korea head on as a super typhoon?.It's sickening. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10594

708. trHUrrIXC5MMX 1:03 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
NADINE BEING SCREWED! Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7873

709. beell 1:07 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: IT STILL APPEARS THAT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ..DIAL.. 09/13/2012 This could be another round of severe weather for the Ohio Valley/NE usa and possibly down to the mid atlantic...unfortunately the SE US is too far south of hte trough for anything major this time, but will still see a cold front. In both this trough and the next one, shear is lackluster, but the polar and subtropical jets do phase togehter. The next big trough is in 10-15 days and is expected to be larger than this one, although its possible effects are not known yet. It is currnetly over towards alaska and russia extending south into the pacific. Probably the determinant factor-as low level ridging may block returns. Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12831

710. sunshineandshowers 1:09 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride: It's insane. I know. These folks are just salivating at this wishing hoping and praying - clinging on to any hope that if only the Atlantic could see this.... Not happening... if that happened i think the site would crash! obviously a storm like this near land is not good news. Okinawa and S.Korea and Kyushu need to prepare, they had a good drill with Bolaven. But for the short-term, no-one is in danger, and we can all take in the awesome beauty of these systems. To get to 910hPa in the WPac, so quickly, is remarkable. I suspect the storm will decay faster than forecast. This year, the JTWC seems to have over-egged the staying power of the storms. It won't be typhoon tip as it's far, far smaller, but def looks to be one of the strongest storms of the last 5 years. Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 69

711. CaribBoy 1:10 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
GFS develops another fish. That's the year of fishes Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2845

712. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 1:11 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40375

713. CloudGatherer 1:12 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride: Typhoon Tip part 2????? At the moment, CIMSS puts Sanba's 34 kt wind radii at 100km, and the JTWC puts them at 180-200km. At its peak, Tip had wind radii of 1100km - five to ten times as much as Sanba. But that's just radii. The more accurate way to say the same thing is that if you were to place Sanba on top of Tip, using the most generous estimates being put out right now, it would cover 3.5% of that storm's area. And that's without comparing central pressures, windspeeds, or other indicae of intensity. So let's not hyperventilate here. Sanba is a beautiful, intense tropical cyclone - and will quite likely be the strongest storm of the year in any ocean. Isn't that enough on its own? Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 453

714. washingtonian115 1:13 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Nice wave coming off of Africa.Do models develop it?. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10594

715. CaribBoy 1:13 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Of course yes..... AT MID LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE EAST ONCE NADINE HAS MOVED NORTH OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE VERY SIMILAR TO THE TRACK OF NADINE. Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2845

718. HadesGodWyvern 1:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride: Thanks. It will probably exceed Megi of 2010. Megi central pressure was a 885 hPa (reference) Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36684

719. CloudGatherer 1:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 13 SEP 2012 Time : 123000 UTC Lat : 16:24:34 N Lon : 129:34:33 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 7.3 / 912.8mb/149.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 7.3 7.5 7.5 Wow. Just, wow. CIMSS is still registering an intensifying cyclone. The raw and adjusted T#s are now up to 7.5 - that'd be a 155kt cyclone. Even the current intensity estimate, now edging up to 149kts, is stunning. This is a Category 5 storm - no ifs, ands, or buts about it. Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 453

720. Grothar 1:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Took a good jog NE. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19488

721. calkevin77 1:18 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman: I Like what you posted here. Decent steady but not too intense rains spread over a lot of the dry areas over a five day period. Exactly the kind of pattern that will help the drought areas. Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 179

722. HurricaneDean07 1:18 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
By next week we will be watching 92L or Oscar(East coast low), and we will have another Tropical wave form, Patty. That's 4 storms halfway through September. And that would put us only 3 storms away from 19 named storms which is the Hyper-active season- Threshold, and we would be 5 named storms from Exhausting the naming list. Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4033

723. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 1:18 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

725. Skyepony 1:33 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Sun setting on Sanba. Click pic for loop. Might see 8 before sunrise. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240

726. AussieStorm 3:51 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
I have just finished my forecast blog on the 2012/13 Australian Bush Fire season. Feel free to have a read and leave a comment if you'd like. Cheers AussieStorm Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13269

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