Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog 

Thank you.

Got all my hurricane supplies checked out today. Got a few blanks to fill in. BBL. And thanks again to everyone.

Welcome Ladyweatherbug! I'm an avid reader of this blog too. I don't say much, just observe. But I too have learned a lot and am facinated with weather. I'm looking forward to another busy hurricane season, although I wish no harm or destruction to anyone. Enjoy the season!

Lookin great for us in Central Florida, NWS has numerous showers and and storms for are area.

They said PWATS at 1.6 to 1.8 combined with LI's between -6 and -8, capes over 3000 and ccold air aloft combined with an easterly flow will set the stage numerous thunderstorms, some possibly severe contains extreme rainfall, gust winds and large hail.


Similar to what Ocala experienced yesterday, hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter, wind gust over 60 mph and over 6 inches of rain in 50 mintues.

I'd love to a storm today likey they had up there yesterday lol

Latest 12 UTC NAM model run...Link

The GFS will be out shortly.

Yup Ive been here for 12 years, it has the best weather for somone like me who loves great sunny weather yet loves thunderstorms.

Because you get so much of both here.


I always shock people about how Florida has more tornados then any state, nobody beleives it, everyone thinks of coursethe most would be "tornado alley" not Florida.

Thing is Florida is the biggest tornado alley of them all, its juat they are usually weaker the the midwest tornados due them being caused by boundary collisions from strong storms instead of incredible wind shear aloft which causes more intense tornados.

Also, hurricanes are huge producers of tornados, scientists are begining to discover they produce alot more then once thought, far more then any mid-lattitude syste does.

I also love the lightning here, being the lightning capital of the world, its heaven for a lightning photographer in the wet season! LOL

I also love the intense whiteout rainfall you can get here, amazing rain amounts, like over 6 inches in 50 minutes like Ocala had yesterday.

Hi everyone... anyone been having problems with model pages? I try to pull them up n screen is blank?

they sometimes have issues, no problem for me lately though.

Here's a link to a models page at NOAA..Link

I'm 120 miles west of Tallahassee...in Defuniak Springs...the smoke is pretty bad over here...visibilities still 1-2 miles. The smell is awful.

You can see the smoke being transported west on a visible satellite...Link

Smoke was bad in Dothan, AL around 3:00 am

Does anyone else notice a counterclockwise spin on visible satelite imagery just east of the Belize/Mexican border.

Posted By: stormpetrol at 10:52 AM CDT on May 14, 2007.
Does anyone else notice a counterclockwise spin on visible satelite imagery just east of the Belize/Mexican border.


Yes...

SH, Don't know if this any have anything to do with it, but when I am at work I can not pull up the NWS model page or the Air resources model page. Also have trouble with several other sites when at work. So if you are on a different computer/network, that may be part of the problem. You can find several different model pages that you may be able to access from here.

Welcome aboard ladywb! Glad you choose to jump in ☺

Back to work. Catch y'all later!

Hey guys

I always shock people about how Florida has more tornados then any state, nobody beleives it, everyone thinks of coursethe most would be "tornado alley" not Florida.

JEDKINS - Florida does not have the most tornadoes. Texas does, with an annual average of 120. You are right that there are quite a few and that they are generally weaker tornadoes than the midwest, but we are certainly not topping the cake for the most.

Lightning? We are definitely the lightning strike capital!

It's just east of the Yucatan....nice little spin....or it looks it!

check out the blob in SW carribean on model run Link

Florida has the most tronadoes per square mile than any other state.Not the most.

Here is a pretty good map of tornado frequency. eep!Link

Hank...that's from 2006.

hi

Interesting...

Hey kris - where are you getting the Tornado stats? I can't seem to find that information...

can anyone give me a link to the african dust satellite view. thanks

Nevermind, I just found this chart Link.

I just can't seem to locate other sources on it, which is strange. I am interested in Florida stats because I am a relatively new resident (a little over a year) and I hail from a much different climatological subset...

Posted By: thisisfurious at 4:12 PM GMT on May 14, 2007.

Hey kris - where are you getting the Tornado stats? I can't seem to find that information...

I think I heard it on TWC or soemthing like that.I'll try to find a place that says it...hold on.

If that tornado map were more detailed you would see that the Los Angeles area and the Sacramento Delta actually has a relatively high frequency of tornados, although they are usually quite weak.

also, I am waiting for the new ENSO weekly advisory.. unfortunately, it looks like La Nina may have strengthened some, but we'll see what the update looks like.

Wikipedia:

Florida's nickname is the "Sunshine State," but severe weather is a common occurrence in the state. Central Florida is known as the lightning capital of the United States, as it experiences more lightning strikes than anywhere else in the country. Florida has the highest average precipitation of any state, in large part because afternoon thunderstorms are common in most of the state from late spring until early autumn. A fair day may be interrupted with a storm, only to return to sunshine. These thunderstorms, caused by collisions between airflow from the Gulf of Mexico and airflow from the Atlantic Ocean, pop up in the early afternoon and can bring heavy downpours, high winds, and sometimes tornadoes. Florida leads the United States in tornadoes per square mile, but these tornadoes do not typically reach the intensity of those in the Midwest and Great Plains. Hail often accompanies the most severe thunderstorms.

New GFS is running...

Keeps a low forming in the NW Caribbean..crossing Cuba and going SE of Florida...Link

dr m is late with his blog update

Maybe he won't have an update til tomorrow?

may be the olny thing he siad was

Have a great Mother's Day, all you moms!
Jeff Masters


dos not say when the next update is

and when will dr m do his blog on STEERING CURRENTS for thiss year

Posted By: keywestdingding at 4:14 PM GMT on May 14, 2007.

can anyone give me a link to the african dust satellite view. thanks


CIMSS has the dust analysis. It also has a lot of other great products.

Still looks like west central florida is in for one right at the "official" start of the season.

In fact as far as square miles goes, Texas is only number 10, and Oklahoma is 2nd to Florida.

JEDKINS...Are you messing around cuz of his user name or seriously angry? He wasent wrong, Texas has the most, but we do have the per/sq. mile in FL. You werent specific to which you meant in your first post.

Posted By: Jedkins at 4:51 PM GMT on May 14, 2007.
Go play in traffic, your not good at life.

Well, 'your' not very good at grammar, Jedkins.

State lines mean nothing to tornados. However, if the map posted above is correct, Texas and Oklahoma do indeed contain the highest tornado-per-square-mile concentration.

Also, as of 2004, Los Angeles County has had 41 tornados. There have been a couple more since then. Link However, they are generally F-0 and that is a very large county by Midwestern standards

Myles,

thanks for the support. Jed, you are no good at grammar - but I am sure we can find a common ground.

I was honestly curious because you didn't clarify in your original post. You stated the information incorrectly, though I appreciate your good intentions. If you don't take the time to be very clear, then you cannot take offense if someone nicely asks for clarification.

My name is not due to my temperament but on my view of these awesome tropical weather storms - of relentless energy and passion and strength. I, on the other hand, am a pretty calm girl who is honestly not too bad at life.

the ENSO update is out

Link

Interesting Conversation here.

Alright, well due to the fact we can't see each other, its easy to get a veiwpoint of others, I opologize for not making myself clear earlier when I said, "Florida has more tornados then any other state"


Agreed.

hmmm that was Inyo I was talking about, he shouldn't jump into something unless hes got facts to back it up, and I apologized to thisfurious for not making myself clear in the beginning.