Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog 

well- I see DEAN has found his new pair of NIKEs--:)

take alook just in the tail to the se of the ull and dean are conecting looks like we gona see a morr=e nw trend till 5 am thats looking cool

Evening everyone. Sure looks like Dean is going through eyewall replacement cycle. SullivanWeather & I watched it do the same thing last nite. Might I also add cause their has been ALOT of talk on here about it, NHC sure "seems" to have a perfect track.

DEAN is feeling the land interaction friction now. The internal organization is fully disrupted as one full quarter, the north side, and also the strong right shoulder of the storm, is completely blocked from sea surface water vapor replenishment. Dean's heat engine is running on three cylinders now, and it's sputtering. None-the-less, Ivan went through this too in '04 and came out of it a category 5 after shedding lots of rainbands here on these seaside mountains.

Yep ERC coming up, convective bands are linking and cutting off supply to the current eye itself.

This should be of some consolation to our friends in Jamaica whom now may be contending with possibly a category 3 storm than an intensifying 4/5.

The mountains of Hispanola seem to be doing a good job also, disrupting inflow and causing Dean to lose organisation upon his poleward side.

Lets hope for an eyewall replacement cycle very soon. Jamaica needs it.

Goodnight everyone. See you in a few hours.

Lord, please spare Jamaica.

Good point H2PV....*noted*

Anyone have live webcam links for Jamaica or the Caymens?

H2PV,

I agree.

The wind downsloping off of those 10,000ft peaks in Hispainola has to be drying out some of the inflow into the storm.

Erin is showing a more convective activity in Oklahoma than Dean is currently managing in the Gulf. Not a lady to give up easily.

The water's so warm around Jamaica though, that any intensity lost because of the mountains could be regained by the time Dean comes near (or hits) Jamaica.

in my opinion i do not believe jamaica will suffer a direct hit but it will probably be affected by the northern half of Dean, which has been weakened

I think the Caymen Islands will be the ones needing prayers. Those are tiny blips compared to Jamaica and will be whalloped completely if Dean hits at its full force by the monstrous storm surge.

Looks like the ULL is almost moving towards the SW...I can't see the ridge that is supposed to be building over the SE....And the ULL looks to be in no hurry

Posted By: kingdomusa at 7:30 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.
I think we need to read Dr Master's blog again! It is clear that even the best forecaster acknowledges the providence of the Hand of God. We have been praying here in PA for 4 or 5 days now that Dean would make a turn toward the south. We have two churches and many friends in those churches in Jamaica. Many people are praying. The churches in Jamaica will be full of praying people on Sunday morning. Just watch what happens. God is.

So when it takes a new course and hits somewhere else and kills a lot of people and wrecks the place, you and your prayers are to blame for moving the course of the storm, right? Just checking so I know where to send the lawyers with the summons for damages. BTW, what is your address?

Obviosly the eye is colapsing... The cicle will be complete in some hours...

I noticed the eye collapsing also

Hey Sully!!! So what do you think??
ERC also?? That eyewall sure looks like laast night when it collapsed.

Fsh!

the ull is moving ever so slowly and yes digging further south dean must be felling it but alittle for now and more latter

Sullivan!

Hey Sully & Ed hit the weather chat!!

No change on course at the 645. Still WNW 285 deg, 15 deg N of due W

How do you think the ULL moving so slowly and towards the SW will affect Deans eventual path after he clears Jamaica? Also I can't wait to see the models after the data from the NOAA jet is fed into them tomorrow

Hey, Fish!

Yeah.

It's going through a replacement and catching some interaction with land.

It could still have some trouble re-firing before getting close to Jamacia. There's a pocket of SST's under 28°C



But once it passes that pocket, not looking too good

Posted By: JFLORIDA at 7:39 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.
I don't think the mountains have had much to do with convection dying near the eye. The north part of the storm is probably weakened but as has been said the water is very warm there. Pressures in the area is dropping - The ridge has, to my surprise built firmly in to the north - I think it could intensify before landfall unfortunately

I don't know what you call "landfall" but hurricane-force winds are raking two countries at this instant in time. Not to mention that ten to twenty inches or rain are being squeezed out of those clouds in the northern quadrant.

We were sent to NOLA after Katrina; wonder if I'll get sent to Mexico

Posted By: sullivanweather at 7:42 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.
It could still have some trouble re-firing before getting close to Jamacia. There's a pocket of SST's under 28°C

Could you post the corrected graphic, because the one you did post has no yellow, under 28C, and only a pocket of light orange above 28C.

I live in Houston and I sure hope that if Dean makes landfall here, it won't be another Katrina. Bush has signed off on a "pre-emptive" state of emergency declaration. Dallas is sending 200 school buses to aid in evacuation for those who can't make it alone. HPD and HFD said today, "we are confident we can handle whatever comes our way." Hmmm...I'm feeling a little sarcastic...maybe it's due to ohh I don't know..memories of Rita!

Posted By: Cheyanne at 2:47 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.

I live in Houston and I sure hope that if Dean makes landfall here, it won't be another Katrina. Bush has signed off on a "pre-emptive" state of emergency declaration. Dallas is sending 200 school buses to aid in evacuation for those who can't make it alone. HPD and HFD said today, "we are confident we can handle whatever comes our way." Hmmm...I'm feeling a little sarcastic...maybe it's due to ohh I don't know..memories of Rita!

I agree all the way!!!! 5hrs to get from The Woodlands to Conroe--normal trip 20 min. It was a bad bad thing to go through. I Dont know if it will be any better it this so much as winks our way!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

The ULL in the GOM is moving west. You can see it at the above link and the NHC said:

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 30N. THUS SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE SE AT 10-15
KT. A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 85W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS VOID OF CONVECTION. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF
NEAR 25N86W MOVING W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 80W-94W. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN GULF PRODUCING NLY FLOW W OF 94W.
ALL EYES ARE ON HURRICANE DEAN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE W/SW PORTION OF THE GULF ON TUE NIGHT.

from:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/190611.shtml?

JFLORIDA,

My thinking on the winds going over the islands to Dean's north is that it was helping Dean by forcing moisture off the mountian tops.

I know they are not near enough to Dean to disrupt his engine, so to speak.

Posted By: MeteorodelGolfo at 7:47 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.
Bla, bla, bla, bla, por favor, dejen de estar especulando; hasta el momento solo hay que tomar en cuenta lo que los expertos no dicen y los expertos son simple y sencillamente el NHC.
Espero y entiendan Español y si no pues traduscanlo.

I used an online translator. You said the following, right?

Bla, bla, bla, bla, if you please, ceases they must be to speculate; to those times compulsory only to accept into the examination of znatki they do not tell and simply znatki and simply will be NHC. Ii1 thus it awaits and I understand Spaniard and not therefore traduscanlo.

That's what I thought you said, but just checking.

Meteoro... se escribe 'traduzcanlo', con Z.

What's the elevation of those Islands?

If "The Weather Channel has over a hundred meteorologists to keep you informed about Hurricane Dean," where the heck are they now? Couldn't at least one work the overnight shift and give at least a cursory report? They've been playing videos for an hour. Useless!

Redrobin...you feel my frustration. lol It took us 19 hours to get from Baytown to Hwy 6! I just said last night..once you've pee'd in your vehicle...you begin to realize something's gone array (sp)lol That whole situation is why so many people will refuse to leave for the next one.

Traduction: MeteorodelGolfo wanna see comments ending because only the NHC staff are 'experts' and no one cant talk about a hurricane like us...

Hypothetically speaking, cant that ULL over the Gulf develop tropically... I mean, the environment is conducive for tropical development and it already has a circulation... It just needs to reach the surface

I'm curious... If you live in The Woodlands, why were you evacuating for Rita? Especially when 500,000+ folks south of you that NEEDED to evacuate were trying to get out? Maybe you are simply saying that it took you 5 hours to get from point B to C (I hope).

ok what does this update mean to me in pensacola aka fl panhandle? Please somebody explain this to me,
Thanks

Posted By: Fl30258713 at 7:51 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

The ULL in the GOM is moving west. You can see it at the above link and the NHC said:

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 30N. THUS SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE SE AT 10-15
KT. A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 85W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS VOID OF CONVECTION. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF
NEAR 25N86W MOVING W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 80W-94W. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN GULF PRODUCING NLY FLOW W OF 94W.
ALL EYES ARE ON HURRICANE DEAN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE W/SW PORTION OF THE GULF ON TUE NIGHT.