Can Jamaica pray away Hurricane Dean?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:15 AM GMT on August 19, 2007

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Can Jamaica pray away Hurricane Dean? The official forecast and nearly all of the computer models have put Jamaica in the bulls-eye for several days now. But hurricanes have a funny way of taking 11th-hour wobbles that spare the island a direct hit. Witness the remarkable turn Hurricane Ivan took in 2004, as it headed directly for the island with 145 mph winds. Ivan took a sudden turn 35 miles from the island, traced out an exact outline of the island's coast 35 miles offshore, then resumed its previous track. In the Jamaica Observer, Custos of Kingston, Reverend Carmen Stewart, contends that it was not the first time that prayers had influenced the turn of events when disaster faced Jamaica. "It has happened time and time again," Reverend Stewart says. "I know people have been praying and I don't see any other reason why it (the hurricane) would make such a drastic turn.... God hears prayer."


Figure 1. Hurricane Ivan as it miraculously skirted the island of Jamaica. Image credit: jamaicancaves.org.

Category 5 Hurricane Allen took an odd wobble around the island, too, but Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 did not. Can Jamaicans pray away Hurricane Dean? Well, the recent motion of Dean has been more due west, which may bring the storm just south of the island. Keep praying, Jamaica!

Links to follow over the next day:
Radar in Piln, Cuba.
Radar from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Punta Cana, Dominican Republic observations (east tip of the island).
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic observations.
Kingston, Jamaica observations.
Montego Bay, Jamaica observations.

I'll have an update by noon Sunday.
Jeff Masters

Hurricane Dean near the island Puerto Rico (Hector777)
the ciclonic surge hard mind in Salinas,Puerto Rico mines the Community Las Ochenta in the south of Puerto Rico
Hurricane Dean near the island Puerto Rico

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1788. listenerVT
3:00 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Tazmanian...thanks for the head's up about the frost. If they're having it, we in NW VT probably are too.

As for the tropics...
Is that an Invest over in the eastern Pacific?
Think Dean could catch up to it eventually?
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1787. austxanne
3:01 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
guygee, thanks for the link to the map. So...basically, even though dean goes into Mexico....Texas gets the rain?!?!

gosh we haven't had any flooding for what...a day now...guess it's time for more

oof
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1786. CJ5
3:03 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: paulo64 at 3:01 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
Hi, first post here, but I have been watching for a long time. Question...what about the circulation that is occurring in the gulf? Not much storm activity yet, but definitely a circulation. Any chance of development?


That is an Upper level low and will not develop into anything. It will move west ahead of Dean and into Tx.
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1785. StormJunkie
3:01 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
paulo64, and WXmongrel, welcome aboard :~)

Paul, that is the ULL that got out in front of Dean that allowed the high to build in and keep it moving W. It is at the 500-300mb height. Tropical systems are in the lower levels. Very, very rarely a ULL can transition to tropical, but it takes many days and is a true weather oddity when it does happen.

MB to feet conversion chart.

That chart should help understand a little better.
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1784. calder
3:03 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
paolo, that's the upper level low that's steering dean
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1783. Xion
3:03 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
MSNBC has a reporter in kingston too.


Sorry, I don't watch MSNBC. For one I only have one "Last" button on my remote (for Fox News and CNN) and besides I don't know its channel number. :p

TWC I watch occasionally though.
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 726
1782. atmoaggie
3:02 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: firecane at 3:01 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Please post links about models moving east.


The GFS wants socialized medicine, even if it means waiting 4 months for a tetanus shot, so its miving to London. (I personally think it has a crush on UKMET, but is not talking about it.)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1781. pmchugh7
10:59 AM EDT on August 19, 2007
Wow! Look at that Eye Wall!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_ir4_float1_0.html
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1780. IMA
2:59 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Jamaica bloggers, be safe and God bless!!!Y'all are in my thoughts today. Please let us know how you are as soon as you're able after the storm.

Posted By: eaglesrock at 2:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

CMC = Can't Model Crap


LMAO -- good one! -- off to my animal rescue evacuation meeting, although it's so hard to rip myself up and away from the blog ;)
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1779. nickmini
2:59 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
I saw that the TWC corespondent is at Tryall Golf and Country Club, one of the top ten golf courses in the world. It's on the North Course and out of the line of fire. I think he's here for a round or two.
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1778. firecane
2:57 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Please post links about models moving east.
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1777. paulo64
10:58 AM EDT on August 19, 2007
Hi, first post here, but I have been watching for a long time. Question...what about the circulation that is occurring in the gulf? Not much storm activity yet, but definitely a circulation. Any chance of development?
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1776. Masquer08er
2:55 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Here is something to put in your weather tool belt if you dont have it already.

Latitude/Longitude Distance Calculation

Link
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 397
1775. srada
2:57 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
has anyone seen a US tv station with coverage from Jamaica? I can find lots of Cancun - Jamaica seems to have disappeared

MSNBC has a reporter in kingston too.

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1774. nickmini
2:53 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Masquer08er

Naturally we don't want to test cat 5. I woud never say we would not have damage. However there will not be a repeat of Gilbert (eg. entire communities built with no roof hurricane straps!). If you take in a building plan for a home that will not be concrete block with reinforced steel you have to prove that your building system can resist winds of 150mph before you are allowed to build it. We are much better prepared as a nation than 20 years ago. WHAT IS THAT RAIN?! Heaviest band so far.
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1773. WXMongrel
2:53 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
I'm a former lurker...newbie to the blog.

While the CMC model seems to have less credibility than others, has there been any comment on the animated run showing a low forming over the Bahamas and rotating into Florida from 96h to 144h? This an anomoly or potential?

CMC animation run

OOPS...here is the link.
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1771. pmchugh7
10:51 AM EDT on August 19, 2007
I'm listening to Jamacian Radio and the callers are so polite! They're too nice a people for anything bad to happen. I think they will bounce back from whatever they encounter.
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1770. atmoaggie
2:58 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
About more formation from the waves, rammb/CIRA/CSU 24 hour formation probability has plummeted in the last 18 hours. Maybe the spike they had (second image) is the first time they missed this season.

tc prob

time series prob
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1768. Xion
2:55 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
has anyone seen a US tv station with coverage from Jamaica? I can find lots of Cancun - Jamaica seems to have disappeared.

Both CNN and TWC have correspondents in Jamaica. TWC's correspondent will be coming on soon.

Not very lucky are they?
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 726
1767. StormJunkie
2:55 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Sorry I did not see your questions anne, and thanks ☺
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1766. StormJunkie
2:52 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
TCW, I have not looked at the next potential area much, but yesterday I thought the CMC was hinting at the next area being that area to the SW of your circle, the one near 10 N 55W? I know that is part of the ITCZ, but I thought that is what the CMC was area. Again, I have not kept myself well briefed on this so just asking questions here.
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1765. zoomiami
2:54 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
has anyone seen a US tv station with coverage from Jamaica? I can find lots of Cancun - Jamaica seems to have disappeared.
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1764. IKE
9:54 AM CDT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 9:53 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
dean is now moving west. the ERC should be over soon. the inner eye wall is collapsing


It's about over...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1763. cantoriesnumber1fan
2:53 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Thanks StormJunkie.
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1762. guygee
2:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Not a pretty picture for Texas:

08/19 06Z GFS Ensemble 1" Precipitation Contours
(Java animation out to 180 hours).

The ensemble mean at 78 hours even shows Dean's eye!
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1761. austxanne
2:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Stormjunkie, thank you for comment on ull, etc. to amyst.
I started asking about 2.5 hours ago and got nothing.

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1760. extreme236
2:52 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
dean is now moving west. the ERC should be over soon. the inner eye wall is collapsing
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1758. welshcayman
2:46 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
The problem with Jamaica is nothing to do with the housing quality (many are superbly built) it is simply a question of terrain.

Here in Cayman we have no rivers or hills/mountains of any kind. In Jamaica they have terrain which lends itself to flash flooding. It does not matter how well the houses are built if you get storm surge or flash flooding - those are what kill people in Jamaica.
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1757. JPV
2:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Is that normal for a Hurricane to go through 2-3 eyewall cycles in such a short period of time?

And what would it do to the storm?
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1756. StormJunkie
2:49 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
#1fan...Not sure which sat you are using, but the GHCC is 20 minutes old...

Quick Links

Select the first link in the imagery section. This is the Global Hydrology and Climate Data Center. There are several rows of maps. The first column is visible imagery. The second infrared and the third is water vapor. The first row is the W Atl view and the frames update most often and also has the highest max zoom. The next active row down does not have the same zoom level and the images update every 30 minutes. The Carib row uses a different color scale on the IR imagery and shows more whites and reds with weaker convection. Select the map you wish t o view. Below the image that comes up are options that will allow to change size, number of frames, zoom level, quality, etc. There is also a box that on SOME maps will allow you to turn on lat/lon lines. Set these parameters the way you choose and then click the area on the map you wish to view. Make sure you select the animate feature if you wish to see a loop. Allow loop to load and enjoy. This site releases images prior to any other site as far as I know. The NHC-SSD imagery site is great for the floaters and large views of the Atlantic. It also allows you to place overlays on the map like wind speed, tropical forecast points, fronts, pressures, etc.
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1755. hurrybird
2:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Well the models are starting to split to the east showing possibles in Texas and Louisiana. I am betting they will move more east as the next few days evolve.
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1754. jaxbeachbum
2:49 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Steve Lyons just gave the 11:00 a.m. update....926 millibars, moving w at 18. still 145 winds
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1753. Xion
2:45 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Truly Ignorant. You need to get out of Texas. Our buildings, have to meet codes for Hurricanes cat 5 AND earthquakes richter 8.

Good luck anyway. Please, please try to find a safe place and an extremely solid structure.

Very little is guaranteed to withstand high Cat 4 and Cat 5 winds. Don't let that be your crutch. If you have to seek shelter, please seek it.

I mean look at the Superdome in NOLA. It was designed to withstand much more than Cat 5 winds as well and it had its roof peeled off by Cat 1 winds.

I am not trying to scare you, I just want you to be as safe as possible.

And Dean is now moving west, so barring a wobble Jamaica just might be very lucky.

Good luck.
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 726
1752. SouthDadeFish
2:49 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
000
WTNT34 KNHC 191443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...OUTER BANDS OF DEAN MOVING OVER JAMAICA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES...PINAR
DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...
345 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DEAN IS MOVING WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST
AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE ISLAND OF
JAMAICA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...75.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME



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1751. weathermanwannabe
10:46 AM EDT on August 19, 2007
Thank Goodness for the Jamaican people that it looks a present that the core of the storm will pass South of them........Looks like tropical storm winds for them as the storm continues to make a beeline for the Yucatan pennisulla...Kudos to NHC on their forecasts for the last several days.....
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1750. IKE
9:49 AM CDT on August 19, 2007
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 75.1 west or about 130 miles...
210 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 215 miles...
345 km...west-southwest of Port au Prince Haiti.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1749. ThePainkiller
2:49 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Another Eyewall Replacement Cycle!

000
URNT12 KNHC 191443
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/13:58:00Z
B. 16 deg 49 min N
074 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2448 m
D. 112 kt
E. 220 deg 020 nm
F. 324 deg 111 kt
G. 221 deg 023 nm
H. EXTRAP 926 mb
I. NA C/ 3040 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16-32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0904A DEAN OB 08
MAX FL WIND 110 KT SE QUAD 12:15:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 134KT AT 14:06:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB



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1748. pmchugh7
10:45 AM EDT on August 19, 2007
Early NHC update!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_ir4_float1_0.html
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1747. CaribbeanStorm
2:42 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: nickmini at 2:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

thanks chicklit

Caribbean Storm where are you. I am in the St Andrew hills and wind woke me at 5am. The rain has been driving here ever since. It was the same with Ivan, action started here at 4am, and not down in Kingston until 4pm! lol. The elevation increases wind speed, and we have an island with plenty elevated territory.



Hi Nick, I am in Acadia Area near to Grants Pen/Barbican. We are getting squally showers not much wind as yet.

My family and friends throughout St. Andrew and Kingston all agree that Ivan was worse at this stage but it is still early yet. We however believe our prayers are being answered.
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1746. Masquer08er
2:45 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Our buildings, have to meet codes for Hurricanes cat 5

Thats good to know Nick. Hope you don't have to test them to Cat 5.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 397
1745. KnowYourRole
10:47 AM EDT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: TexasRiverRat at 10:37 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.
Theres not to many strong buildings in Jamaica unless you are one of the rich ones and they've all left! The resorts will be flooded so they cant go there neither. Just go up the mountains and hide out.


must not have been to Jamaica.
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1744. gthsii
2:46 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
caneW: your link does not work...only goes to photobuckets home page
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1743. amazinwxman
2:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
a tropical wave out near 45 West Longitude. Infared satellite imagery this morning doesn't show a whole lot of deep thunderstorm activity, but it has a fairly good circulation. The reason I am mentioning it is because the GFS model takes a good part of the energy from this wave north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday and then tracks it into the Bahamas by about Friday and this model actually develops a low pressure system in the Bahamas as well by Friday. The Canadian model develops a powerful hurricane out of this system in the Bahamas by Thursday and tracks it over eastern Florida on Friday. Since the Canadian model forms every system into a hurricane, this model will be discounted.
1742. gthsii
2:46 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
RE: Erin. I spoke with my brother today who lives in OK City. The "eye" passed right over him. He's been up since 1AM this morning monitoring the system. They got over 6 inches of rain in about three hours. Major flooding is happening. Unprecedented to say the least.
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1741. TheCaneWhisperer
2:46 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
New area to watch, next week.

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
1740. hurricane23
10:39 AM EDT on August 19, 2007
Dean will not move north into the gulf....High pressure is building to its north and right now it only has one way to go which W-WNW to the south of jamaica lets hope and then into cancun as a very strong CAT4 or possibly a CAT5.A U.S. landfall does not look likely at the moment.
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1739. nickmini
2:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: TexasRiverRat at 2:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
Theres not to many strong buildings in Jamaica unless you are one of the rich ones and they've all left! The resorts will be flooded so they cant go there neither. Just go up the mountains and hide out.


Truly Ignorant. You need to get out of Texas. Our buildings, have to meet codes for Hurricanes cat 5 AND earthquakes richter 8. As usual we focus on the sensational or the tragedy and ignore the successes. Most buildings in Jamaica will stand up to most storms intact.
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1738. StormJunkie
2:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
That is likely true for the ULL Amyst, but it is really no longer a factor in any steering of Dean. It got out front and allowed the high to build. The high is the driver now. The ULL could have driven had it slowed down or the high not been strong enough.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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