Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog 

No concern for Haiti ? This latest wobble could mean disaster for the El Cayes area (the southern tip of the peninsula)

Was there in February. village of Torbeck has a pair of 240-foot towers...Houses made of scraps...Remember there is no wood left in Haiti, so newer houses are very flimsy. Lets pray for Haiti too. Thanks.

KE.. you got better because your body made antibodies and white blood cells and such and body healed.

Next time you get sick sacrifice someone... maybe you'll get rid of your flu??

Stop taking cheap shots at religion and getting off-topic! Do you want to start a debate like that of global warming last night?

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 940.1mb/124.6kt

Weakening Flag is still on and some small drops associated with T#s from the new run.

6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4

was

6.3 6.3 6.5 6.5

Posted By: whirlwind at 1:45 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

I think what hu2007 wrote is called a 'run-on' sentence. let me pop up excel and fix your grammar so we can understand.. bb



ehhhhhh??????????? i wrote at best as i could sorry!

is the EWRC finished? looks kinda like it on rgb images

Posted By: whirlwind at 1:39 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

IKE.. you got better because your body made antibodies and white blood cells and such and body healed.

Next time you get sick sacrifice someone... maybe you'll get rid of your flu??


Back to weather.....

Dean is looking great!! keep it up... cat 5 180 mph tomorrow morning


RU KIDDING! Good for you Ike!

NorthXCa...
your comment on not commenting was enough of a comment to offend some

Posted By: nolesjeff at 8:54 PM CDT on August 18, 2007.
Posted By: whirlwind at 1:39 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

IKE.. you got better because your body made antibodies and white blood cells and such and body healed.

Next time you get sick sacrifice someone... maybe you'll get rid of your flu??


Back to weather.....

Dean is looking great!! keep it up... cat 5 180 mph tomorrow morning


RU KIDDING! Good for you Ike!


Thanks.

Maybe Jamaica can luck out yet!!

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645082&_dad=portal&_sche ma=PORTAL

This post is not done by me and not my exact words even though I totally agree with the thought process and way of thinking. This post is done by a actual Met w/ a degree and license(sp?).

Well…with reports that the more recent runs of the GFDL are falling in line with the other models…It is growing unquestionably harder to go against the models. The overall situation is setting up very similar to Gilbert in 1988, albeit Dean is stronger now than Gilbert was. In 1998, Hurricane Gilbert went directly up the spine of Jamaica. By some kind of miracle, Dennis missed to the north in 2005, and Charley and Ivan were somehow able to wrap around the island with little affect…followed by a resumption of the previous forecast track. ERNesto pulled another mystery in ’06. With absolutely no intention of offending folks in Jamaica what so ever, I may need to buy a book on the Voodoo religion if Dean misses the island and has little influence. Unfortunately, Jamaican’s continue to be under the gun and I really feel for them. Dean continues to be a beast as expected.

Need to get back on task and on target here. I would say with reasonable comfort that the eastern gulf is 85% out of the woods (Alabama/Miss border eastward), the central gulf is 65-70% out of the woods (Mississippi and Louisiana), and the western gulf (Texas and northern Mexico) will have to watch Dean until he is gone.

With all of that said, I was not looking for a major course change today as far as Dean’s forward motion. Since the ULL low over the GOMex is heading west, I was more curious to see if Dean was close enough to feel the ULL effects. Until early to mid afternoon, he certainly did with a degree heading of 290 degrees. To me this was a warning sign that Dean was close enough to feel the effects, and if this ULL stalls in 48+ hours…that that would be when the surprises that contradict the models might begin. I believe that if you are in the eastern Gulf, you will not be 105% out of the woods until Dean makes landfall in the Yucatan…If there is a surprise course correction between the Caymans and the Yucatan in the next 48-60hours…be careful and don’t let your guard totally down until then. In the Central Gulf, you will not be 105% safe until Dean is beyond 95W…Unfortunately, that is almost 4 days from now…Western Gulf, I’m growing more and more concerned for you all the time.

With all this said, my school of thought remains somewhat different that many of the posters and a bit rebellious toward the models (only because they also seem to vary somewhat widely on the evolution of mid latitude patters and the Jet Stream at the 500mb level). In the end, I may be seen as way too rebellious if nothing happens course change wise, but I would rather air on the rebellious side of caution for now in the event of some surprises. Frankly, I’m still a bit curious as to why the models see a similar tropical/subtropical evolution, but seem to have varying responses to mid-latitude features. I take the approach that each separate interaction in each model should have a separate result (I am talking about the interaction of weather features at various latitudes here).



Diving a little deeper, and looking at the maps, there is a ridge over the Baha Peninsula in Mexico…It is bucking back against the trough over the east pacific. While the trough over the east pacific has moved little today…and upper level low off of Oregon and Northern California has pushed eastward. I wonder if when the ULL moves further east, it will respond by providing a digging trough over Utah and Texas…which would head to the east. Many models show the dissipation of this ULL, interestingly, the NOGAPS does not…But the NOGAPS also goes with a more southern path for Dean. Huh??? Also, the ridge over the middle states continues to head east, as does the trough over the western Atlantic. The one caveat here is that the Upper Level Low over the Gulf has progged westward; the Upper level low on the eastern side of the ridge north of Dean is starting to pull north. This has allowed the ridge north of Dean to Expand. This is significant, because this ridge may begin to expand and strengthen now...Just another Monkey wrench…However, if the trough in the Pacific moves westward, the upper low in the Gulf will get pulled in just the same as the one in the Atlantic and/or the forward westward progression of the upper level low may slow down again.

hu2007 -

We understand you! Don't worry, and keep posting!

Let's stay on topic tonight pleeeze?

SJ, good evening. The MIMIC imagery looks like it moved consideraly wnw, then leveled out heading west. Nice loop, thanks!

It is not good to discuss religeon or politics on this blog. I've heard it will get you kicked off.

Dean the mean.I think it will get to cat5.

Marianne - Are you nuts??????

Look....regarding all this bickering and bashing...here's where I'm coming from:

I have a child with special needs and we live in Texas. I'm trying to make the best informed decision that I can so that I can best plan for his needs. Sure...we're doing the "watchful waiting" thing, but the last thing he needs is petty people obfuscating a real situation.

We need to know what's up with that ULL.

someone once said "you should resoect a man's religion the same way you respect his opinion his wife is beautiful and his kids are smart"

It is not good to discuss religeon or politics on this blog. I've heard it will get you kicked off.

Religion is sort of relevant to the conversation since that is what the good doctor posted about.

Posted By: rodrigo0 at 1:57 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Relax, people...

Why some people here are angry? Lets talk about the hurricane and respect religion issues

Excellent link, thanks

16.1N 71.0W T6.5/6.5 DEAN -- Atlantic Ocean

From the Looks of the MMIC the EWRC looks about complete, could be why we seen the Wobble to the SW. Every wobble counts for Jamaica and the Caymans.

Hey Guys stop quarreling about religion and get back on track.

We are having a couple wind gusts here in Jamaica. I'm in Norbrook, St. Andrew and it's been a beautiful day. It's around 9pm and we are having a few gusts of wind (nothing serious) with a very, very light rain - almost a mist.

I wish it would stay that way

Marianne -

Have you ever been through a hurricane, or known anyone who suffered the aftermath of one?

Just wondering.....

The folks in Dean's path are in my prayers.

Whirlwind,

You are in my prayers too.


Now, for my question of the night: In what year did Hurricanes actually start getting names?

rodrigo0, nice video. couldn't understand the words but the point was clear. thanx.

The 0045 UTC ADT update shows Dean a little S than expected.

Link

The 0115 UTC sat update shows direct W movement. Looking better but another jog S would be good.

Xion- Can you please post a link to those T #'s?

But of course...HERE is the latest.

And HERE is a list of all previous observations.

I see dry air entrainment keeping Dean from intensifying further.

See water vapor loop at Link and look at SE quadrant during the last 3 frames.

See the same thing in the IR loop here:

Link

To illustrate:

ok now this is what i am actually thinking and feel will happen/will need to happen and at what time for Dean to turn North or even NorthEasward:

GOMex ULL is moving west at a good clip right now, porbably far enough west that the implications of it are waning for the moment right now.
- Any turn in path that would concern the Eastern Gulf (Florida and Alabama) would only occur in 48-60 hours (Between the Caymans and the Yucatan)...With an extreme unlikelihood of this ever happenning (I'd say 85% chance against is).
- Any turn toward the central gulf states would need to occur before 95 west. Also highly unlikely, but a little more possible that a turn in the eastern gulf.
- Excellent and ever persistant model agreement favors the western Gulf (Mexico and Texas), but there may still be some unanswered questions regarding the future of the Ridge and troughs in the mid latitudes...as well asthe ULL in the gulf and the Atlantic Ridge. Time will tell if the models really do have it right, but I think there are additional questions since the models seem to have an agreeable Hurricane forecast, yet have varying solutions for the mid latitude flow.

BottomLine: I am only rebellious slightly against the models becuase I expect there is still some small level of chance that Dean Could turn in 48+ hours. But the models have been going on toward the west for long enough that is is looking safer and safer for the eastern and central gulf at the moment

HH plane closing in on the eye again

Posted By: Oskee at 9:00 PM CDT on August 18, 2007.
Hey Guys stop quarreling about religion and get back on track.

We are having a couple wind gusts here in Jamaica. I'm in Norbrook, St. Andrew and it's been a beautiful day. It's around 9pm and we are having a few gusts of wind (nothing serious) with a very, very light rain - almost a mist.

I wish it would stay that way

Good luck to you....The last few hours of Dean and it's path are encouraging for Jamaica.

just saw the bbc news over here, quite cool images from the space shuttle Link

Posted By: Justwondering at 1:58 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Look....regarding all this bickering and bashing...here's where I'm coming from:

I have a child with special needs and we live in Texas. I'm trying to make the best informed decision that I can so that I can best plan for his needs. Sure...we're doing the "watchful waiting" thing, but the last thing he needs is petty people obfuscating a real situation.

We need to know what's up with that ULL.


Sorry about your child.The ULL should out run Dean.