Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 8:55 PM GMT on May 21, 2013 — Last Comment: 11:53 PM GMT on May 21, 2013

	Bertha strengthening again, after rapidly falling apart

Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:15 PM GMT on July 09, 2008

Hurricane Bertha fell apart yesterday to a minimal Category 1 hurricane about as quickly as her meteoric rise to major hurricane status had come. At Bertha's peak--a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds and 948 mb pressure--Bertha was the third strongest hurricane on record so early in the season. Increased wind shear of about 20 knots plus some dry Saharan air that got injected into the core caused Bertha's sudden demise.

The intensity forecast
Shear is on the wane again over Bertha, down to about 15 knots. The storm is beginning to get a more symmetric cloud pattern and better organization, as seen on visible satellite loops. An eye is reappearing, and with Bertha over warm 28°C water, further intensification is likely today. None of the models are predicting a return to Category 3 status again, but Bertha could become a Category 2 hurricane again before wind shear increases once more later this week.

Figure 1. Bertha at peak intensity: 21:15 GMT Monday July 7, 2008. At this time, satellite estimates of Bertha's strength were 115 kt (135 mph), making the storm a weak Category 4 hurricane. Bertha was the third strongest hurricane on record so early in the season.

The track forecast
Bertha is slowing down and turning northward as it "feels" the approach of a trough of low pressure to the north. All of the computer model turn Bertha northwards east of Bermuda, and it currently appears that the island will feel only peripheral effects of Bertha. However, the trough of low pressure turning Bertha to the north will not be strong enough to fully drag the storm into the far North Atlantic, so Bertha will wander close to Bermuda early next week while it waits for another trough of low pressure to finish the job. It is very unlikely Bertha will threaten the U.S., but it could eventually affect the Maritime Provinces of Canada.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic. The GFS model is predicting that a tropical depression may form off the coast of Africa on Monday.

Dramatic temperature difference in California
At 3pm PDT yesterday, the temperature at the Point Sur Light Station was 52°F. A shallow marine layer lay along the coast, keeping temperatures cool. Just 20 miles inland, the temperature was 111°F at Arroyo Seco RAWS! You can check out this remarkable contrast by viewing the Wundermap for the region. We just added a fire layer to the product yesterday, so you can see the smoke density in the region as well. It's another bad day in Big Sur!

I'll post an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters

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801. tiggeriffic 8:59 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
976. Why would you WANT a hurricane to hit land? The devestation and destruction not to mention the death that accompanies it? That is just nuts! Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

802. Stormchaser2007 8:59 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Quoting MichaelSTL: Quoting TheWeatherMan504: Where is MichaelSTL and his typical rant about the NHC when you need it? What the heck are you talking about?! You are IMMEDIATELY added to my ignore list! Stupid idiot! Indeed, if this weren't the internet, you would be spitting out broken teeth right now... LOL... ROFL remind me to never P!SS you off...lol jk. : ) Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

803. HurakanPR 9:00 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Well Bertha is doing pretty well following more or less the NHC, and Dr.Masters,forecast, not perfect, nothing in the weather is written in stone. We all, including me made our predictions and that's fair,in a blog like this; but have to admit, that they have been pretty consistent. That's very good for keeping the confidence AND FAITH on the official WEATHER FORECASTERS, to save life an properties.

804. TheWeatherMan504 8:57 PM GMT on July 09, 2008

This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.

805. pottery 9:01 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
nrti, thanks for that link. post 787 Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

806. caneman911 9:01 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
did not say I wanted it to hit land. Most people here love the suspense of tracking storms. They are no fun if they stay in the open sea.

807. Trouper415 9:02 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Let's not take things here, or in life too personally folks. THink of things that people say as compliments, humor, or ways of benefiting you. Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637

808. Chucktown 9:03 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
One thing to remember Tiger, Bertha is over 1000 miles from the east coast so a slight track error is OK, no one is affected. The storms you mentioned, Floyd and Hugo, while yes they did fluctuate in track, people were affected both good and bad. Point is when a storm is that close to land, preparations should already be complete, landfall or not. Bertha will not be an issue for anyone, except possibly Bermuda. Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1383

809. tiggeriffic 9:03 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
my appologies then to you, caneman, will gladly admit when i am wrong or misunderstood... Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

810. TheWeatherMan504 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
806. caneman911 9:01 PM GMT on July 09, 2008 did not say I wanted it to hit land. Most people here love the suspense of tracking storms. They are no fun if they stay in the open sea. I like it better when they are out in sea because no one dies and the goverment doesent loose billions.and gas doesent jump to 8 dollars a gallon. Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037

811. Levi32 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
806. caneman911 1:01 PM AKDT on July 09, 2008 And how much fun are they if they hit land? You ever been hit by one? Geez.... Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

813. TheWeatherMan504 9:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Quoting Levi32: 806. caneman911 1:01 PM AKDT on July 09, 2008 And how much fun are they if they hit land? You ever been hit by one? Geez.... I dont know if he has but ive been through a few nasty ones. Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037

814. HurakanPR 9:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
gee!! IM STARTING TO MISS THE TIMES THAT THERE WHERE NO qUOTES. THAT KIND OF qUOTES, IS A MONKEY SEE ,,MONKEY,DO, THING. NOW MANY PEOPLE ARE DOING THE SAME.

815. tiggeriffic 9:07 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Chuck, if you read my other posts...I have been ready since May 31st...and I also acknowledged that the storm is further N than Hugo or Floyd, I am just saying that there is human error in forecasting...I will watch ALL storms until either gone out to see or making landfall...will not take ANYTHING for granted as far as Hurricanes (or Tornadoes for that matter) go Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

816. caneman911 9:08 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
To be honest, I have been through a-lot of canes here in wilmington, nc and preparing for them gives me a rush. I love tracking storms and have done so for 15 years. I like to be teased by them. Are they going to hit or not. If they do I am prepared.

817. Weather456 9:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
I apologize for my absence over the past couple of days, but my blog is back and up. Bertha, the SW Caribbean and EATL tropical wave Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

818. mercurypa 9:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
I wish we could have a hurricane here in CA to get rid of the smoke and fires, we are dying out here.

819. tiggeriffic 9:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
quotes are ok as per answering questions...blog moves so fast sometimes or it takes time to look something up...helps to know what to apply the answer too =) Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

820. Stormchaser2007 9:11 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Quoting HurakanPR: gee!! IM STARTING TO MISS THE TIMES THAT THERE WHERE NO CUOTES. THAT KIND OF CUOTES, IS A MONKEY SEE ,,MONKEY,DO, THING. NOW MANY PEOPLE ARE DOING THE SAME. Q-U-O-T-E.....well im out....trolls are back now.( not targeting specifically) Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

821. prophetofdoom 9:11 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
welcome back 456.

822. rareaire 9:11 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
you tell them tigger!!!! btw how you been? Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1598

823. tornadofan 9:11 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
You are forgiven 456. LOL. Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345

824. tiggeriffic 9:13 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
hey rare! getting better...little one almost over the loss of our dog last week, how bout you? Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

825. HadesGodWyvern 9:14 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
CUOTES?! Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686

826. tiggeriffic 9:15 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
825. LOL Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

827. rareaire 9:16 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
well you know what i do, so the last 2 years have not been fiscally good, lol but i have ben busy with the floods in the midwest. i just got a new dog friday! Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1598

828. Stormchaser2007 9:17 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Quoting HadesGodWyvern: CUOTES?! ROFL!! 820). Has a instructional example on how to say these "CUOTES" you speak of. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

829. tiggeriffic 9:19 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Cool, bout the dog I mean...we are gonna wait a bit before we get a new one...hopefully, things get better the other way...things tight here but not down to beenie weenies and mac and cheese diets yet! Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

830. rareaire 9:20 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
well im good here just bored used to the fast pace life not the slow world of flood work. Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1598

831. prophetofdoom 9:18 PM GMT on July 09, 2008

This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.

833. HurakanPR 9:21 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
yes "cuotes" , sorry,English is not my mayor, Spanish is; just consider the "q-u-o=t-e-s, annoying. My personal opinion,not trying to offend anybody.

834. CJ5 9:22 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
I wish someone had the original Accuweather track because it appears that Bertha is sitting about where the infamous arrow was. I don't really care either way its just many start bashing them right of the bat and that track was pretty darn accurate to date. Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1709

835. tiggeriffic 9:22 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
alright peeps, be back after the 8pm update...too much yelling for me in here right now, besides, my sides hurt from laughing sooooooo much! Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

837. CJ5 9:23 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
I don't see anything wrong with the quote function. It serves a good purpose when used correctly. Its new, you have to give it time while the kids play with it. The newness will waer off soon enough. Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1709

838. rareaire 9:23 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
see ya tig Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1598

839. stormchaserDAZ 9:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
wow im gone for to days and bertha is a cat 2-3 blimey and now its heading for us as if we aint got enuf windand rain Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 246

840. medicroc 9:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
prophetofdoom, be careful. One of the most prolific and popular posters here recently got banned for posting a fish. Member Since: September 14, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 452

841. nrtiwlnvragn 9:26 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Click on image to view original size in a new window Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8923

842. Tazmanian 9:27 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
can we like get back to Bertha Please Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111341

844. Chucktown 9:28 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
I think you're wrong CJ5. Accuguess had Bertha approaching the east coast this weekend near the Carolinas. Their forecast will be almost 1000 miles off. NHC has so far been very good on track, but intensity forecast obviously has been off. Bertha may reach Cat 4 before shear becoames an issue again by this weekend. Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1383

845. prophetofdoom 9:28 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Bertha is looking healthy at the moment.

846. Floodman 9:30 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Quoting rareaire: well im good here just bored used to the fast pace life not the slow world of flood work. But are you used to the pay scale of flood work? Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

847. nrtiwlnvragn 9:30 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Personally don't like the quote feature, invites Troll mischief. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8923

848. stormchaserDAZ 9:30 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
click this link and have a look at bertha not as red as i was expecting Link Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 246

849. HIEXPRESS 9:30 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
834. CJ5 5:22 PM EDT on July 09, 2008 Hide this comment. I wish someone had the original Accuweather track because it appears that Bertha is sitting about where the infamous arrow was. I don't really care either way its just many start bashing them right of the bat and that track was pretty darn accurate to date. This one? Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2153

850. mtyweatherfan90 9:32 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
842. Second that Member Since: July 9, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 334

851. rareaire 9:32 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
flood, its not all its billed to be.... Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1598

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