KoritheMan's WunderBlog

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	Tropical weather analysis - July 3, 2012

Posted by: KoritheMan, 2:25 AM GMT on July 04, 2012

Invest 96E

An area of low pressure centered about 500 miles south of Manzanillo is showing signs of organization, and satellite images indicate that a tropical depression may be forming. The cloud pattern is well-organized, and consists of a couple of banding features in the eastern semicircle trying to wrap cyclonically into the center.

Figure 1. Latest infrared satellite image of Invest 96E. Image credit: NOAA

I am uncertain if there is a closed circulation, as the data is conflicting. But if the system lacks one now, it shouldn't in the near future. Upper-level winds in the path of the low are expected to be very favorable for intensification, and it is possible that the system could become a hurricane before reaching cooler waters in about three days. Indeed, the outflow pattern is already excellent, and quite expansive.

Water vapor imagery shows that a large and powerful heat ridge is currently dominating much of the United States, bringing record heat in many locations. The southern extent of this ridge is forecast to remain firmly entrenched to the north of the system over the next several days, providing 96E with little opportunity to recurve. The global models are in excellent agreement on this scenario, and lacking any evidence to the contrary, so am I.

Long-range prognostications from the various global models suggest that this system may enter the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility in a week or so. However, there would likely be little left of it at that time. Even so, given the current forecast track, it is unlikely that 96E will dissipate as fast as most Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones, since areal sea surface temperatures will remain warmer to the south.

Probability of development within 48 hours: Near 100%

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1. Some1Has2BtheRookie 2:31 AM GMT on July 04, 2012
I saw your post on Master's blog. I hope the best for you, Korie. Always be true to yourself and you will know who is true to you. That is the best I know to tell you. Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102

2. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:35 AM GMT on July 04, 2012
Thanks Kori. I'm actually in the process of writing a blog right now. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

3. Civicane49 2:37 AM GMT on July 04, 2012
I always like your entries, Kori. Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 3861

4. nigel20 2:39 AM GMT on July 04, 2012
Thanks Kori! Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4516

5. sunlinepr 3:31 AM GMT on July 04, 2012
Best for you man... Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

6. SubtropicalHi 5:41 AM GMT on July 04, 2012
Kori: As for you situation: Talk to your dad. It may not be a positive outcome - at first. Your father needs to come to terms with this. It may take awhile. Sorry some posters were rude on the Dr. M's blog. Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 354

7. lavinia 9:20 PM GMT on July 04, 2012
Hi Kori. As Shakespeare said "To thine own self be true". Wishing you all the best. :) Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 216

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