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The Atlantic remains quiet today. A tropical wave is currently moving south of Puerto Rico into a confluent environment aloft, which is inducing sinking air around the wave and capping thunderstorm activity. The wave will continue westward through the Caribbean during the next few days, eventually encountering the eastern flank of an upper trough which is forecast to dive down near the Yucatan in 3 days. This may provide a marginally favorable environment for thunderstorm development, and it will be interesting to see what this wave looks like as it approaches the Yucatan. None of the computer models develop this wave at this time. The wave will likely move slowly westward in the vicinity of the Yucatan, perhaps eventually ending up in the Bay of Campeche.
A bigger story down the road may be a monsoonal invasion into the southern Gulf of Mexico and/or the far western Caribbean by June 25th through the end of the month. I have been speaking of this for a while now, and the models continue to hint at increased moisture and low pressure developing beneath a ballooning upper ridge, which would be providing a very favorable upper-level environment. Of particular interest in this situation is the fact that the models are also hinting at a break in the deep-layer ridge developing over the north gulf coast, which may allow any tropical moisture that may be in the southern gulf to lift northward and bring some relief to the severe drought that continues in that region. This will depend on how deep of a monsoonal invasion we get, and whether any tropical disturbance tries to organize within it.
Also of interest in this pattern will be the tropical wave that recently left Africa, and is beginning its journey westward across the entire Atlantic. This wave will be entering the western Caribbean around the time that moisture starts lifting northward from the Pacific, and may interact with the monsoon trough. Such tropical waves can sometimes become catalysts for the development of tropical disturbances within monsoonal circulations. No solid conclusions can be drawn yet about this setup, as it is still 10 days away, but I believe the area of the southern Gulf of Mexico and the far western Caribbean should be watched closely for potential mischief during the last week of June.
We shall see what happens!
Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):
Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):
Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:
200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):