Atlantic remains quiet; Watching tropical waves and a potential monsoonal invasion

By: Levi32 , 3:10 PM GMT on June 15, 2011

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The Atlantic remains quiet today. A tropical wave is currently moving south of Puerto Rico into a confluent environment aloft, which is inducing sinking air around the wave and capping thunderstorm activity. The wave will continue westward through the Caribbean during the next few days, eventually encountering the eastern flank of an upper trough which is forecast to dive down near the Yucatan in 3 days. This may provide a marginally favorable environment for thunderstorm development, and it will be interesting to see what this wave looks like as it approaches the Yucatan. None of the computer models develop this wave at this time. The wave will likely move slowly westward in the vicinity of the Yucatan, perhaps eventually ending up in the Bay of Campeche.

A bigger story down the road may be a monsoonal invasion into the southern Gulf of Mexico and/or the far western Caribbean by June 25th through the end of the month. I have been speaking of this for a while now, and the models continue to hint at increased moisture and low pressure developing beneath a ballooning upper ridge, which would be providing a very favorable upper-level environment. Of particular interest in this situation is the fact that the models are also hinting at a break in the deep-layer ridge developing over the north gulf coast, which may allow any tropical moisture that may be in the southern gulf to lift northward and bring some relief to the severe drought that continues in that region. This will depend on how deep of a monsoonal invasion we get, and whether any tropical disturbance tries to organize within it.

Also of interest in this pattern will be the tropical wave that recently left Africa, and is beginning its journey westward across the entire Atlantic. This wave will be entering the western Caribbean around the time that moisture starts lifting northward from the Pacific, and may interact with the monsoon trough. Such tropical waves can sometimes become catalysts for the development of tropical disturbances within monsoonal circulations. No solid conclusions can be drawn yet about this setup, as it is still 10 days away, but I believe the area of the southern Gulf of Mexico and the far western Caribbean should be watched closely for potential mischief during the last week of June.

We shall see what happens!



Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):






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9. cyclonekid
2:31 PM GMT on June 16, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Well, in all likelyhood if that big ridge is sitting there in 10 days, the monsoon trough will be under it. If the monsoon trough does not come north, the ridge likely won't be as far north either, or as strong. The tropical wave may still encounter marginally favorable conditions, but not as favorable as if it had monsoonal support. We likely need the monsoon trough to get into the southern gulf or western Caribbean in order to get significant development of anything. That's how most June systems get going.
Thanks! I understand now!
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1733
8. IFuSAYso
9:51 PM GMT on June 15, 2011
ty
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
7. Levi32
7:19 PM GMT on June 15, 2011
Quoting cyclonekid:
Question: Even if the monsoonal trof doesn't lift northward into the GOM or the Yucatan, would that tropical wave still be under some favorable conditions to develop? Or would the ridge that would build be its only hope to develop?

Thanks!
~CK


Well, in all likelyhood if that big ridge is sitting there in 10 days, the monsoon trough will be under it. If the monsoon trough does not come north, the ridge likely won't be as far north either, or as strong. The tropical wave may still encounter marginally favorable conditions, but not as favorable as if it had monsoonal support. We likely need the monsoon trough to get into the southern gulf or western Caribbean in order to get significant development of anything. That's how most June systems get going.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
6. ReefMaster
4:39 PM GMT on June 15, 2011
Long range mischief. Love it!
Thanks Levi!
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
5. cyclonekid
4:36 PM GMT on June 15, 2011
Question: Even if the monsoonal trof doesn't lift northward into the GOM or the Yucatan, would that tropical wave still be under some favorable conditions to develop? Or would the ridge that would build be its only hope to develop?

Thanks!
~CK
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1733
4. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:21 PM GMT on June 15, 2011
Thanks Levi!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34083
3. AtHomeInTX
3:47 PM GMT on June 15, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
I hope you get some. It's still a long way off, but the pattern may be there to allow it. I'll keep my fingers crossed for yah.


Thanks Levi. :) It is kind of unusual for the locals to mention something that far out. But they agreed with what you said about the pattern set up to make it possible. My fingers and toes are crossed too. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
2. Levi32
3:37 PM GMT on June 15, 2011
I hope you get some. It's still a long way off, but the pattern may be there to allow it. I'll keep my fingers crossed for yah.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
1. AtHomeInTX
3:26 PM GMT on June 15, 2011
Thanks Levi. The locals are still waiting for the BOC area you spoke of. It's possibly our first chance for rain if there's something there and if it heads our way. Lot of ifs but we'll take it. Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427

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