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The tropical Atlantic remains fairly quiet today. A low-amplitude tropical wave is moving across the Antilles Islands, and will be interacting with a small monsoonal circulation near Panama in 4-5 days. This interaction will have to be watched closely for possible stirring up of mischief in the western Caribbean. This may be the focus area of potential development, as the models are all starting to hint at this area spawning our first storm. The GFS and NOGAPS are the most aggressive, with the CMC only showing the storm on one run and the ECMWF staying to the south with it and not developing it too much, though its ensembles are farther north. Development here would make sense given the pattern I have been talking about, with the SOI burst coming east with the MJO, focusing upward motion in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico as the monsoonal circulation remains strong and pushes north. Development is far from guaranteed here, but the pattern is favorable, and if the models continue to come onboard consistently, then this area will have to be watched closely by this weekend.
We shall see what happens!
Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):
Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):
Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:
200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):