Southwest Caribbean getting active; Central America to take the brunt

By: Levi32 , 1:25 PM GMT on June 24, 2011

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The southwest Caribbean is starting to look a little more active this morning as the tropical wave we have been talking about is starting to interact with the monsoon trough near central America, and cyclonically curved convective bands are now developing north of Panama. Wind shear is still high over the area, but as convection fires, the released heat is expected to form high pressure aloft over the area and balloon northwest in the path of the system, providing a more favorable environment for tropical development. Some of the convection is on the Pacific side, which will make it harder for this system to fully consolidate in the Caribbean without getting tied up with central America right away. We will have to see if and where a center of low pressure tries to develop, but this system may not get a whole lot of time over water before running into the Yucatan.

After crossing the Yucatan, most of the models show weak development in the Bay of Campeche, though almost all of the models have shifted quite far south since yesterday, keeping it in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. I feel they may have shifted a little bit too far, but again it's hard to say without a defined system yet. Minus being tied up with land, the environment will be supportive of tropical development, and with enough time over water, it's possible we could get tropical depression #1 out of this system, and possibly even Arlene if it is not too slow to organize, though these monsoonal systems usually are. One can see how this pattern is coming together for this last week of June as we have been discussing, and evidence of mischief is already showing up. Central America will have to watch this system closely for heavy rainfall and possible flooding over the next several days.

We shall see what happens!



Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):






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16. TomTaylor
3:21 AM GMT on June 25, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Hey you have a good knowledge base from what I've seen you post, more so than many on the main blog.
Never feel bad for asking about anything. I'm still learning as well.
LOL if you say so :)

Thanks for the blog update btw
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
15. Levi32
12:22 AM GMT on June 25, 2011
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


Okay thanks i'll keep trying i can copy the embed html from youtube and i can paste it into the blog but it just shows the text i dont see an option to write in html code. Thanks


Make sure on Youtube that "use old embed code" is checked. The iframe tag is not allowed on WU.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
14. xtremeweathertracker
10:54 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


As far as I know anyone can embed Youtube videos in their blog. I do have a paid WU account. It would surprise me if free members can't embed video. That's the first I've heard of it.


Okay thanks i'll keep trying i can copy the embed html from youtube and i can paste it into the blog but it just shows the text i dont see an option to write in html code. Thanks
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
13. Levi32
8:02 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Hey thanks Levi, Great post watch it daily. One question how do you embed the video in your blog, do you have to have premium membership???


As far as I know anyone can embed Youtube videos in their blog. I do have a paid WU account. It would surprise me if free members can't embed video. That's the first I've heard of it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
12. xtremeweathertracker
6:16 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Hey thanks Levi, Great post watch it daily. One question how do you embed the video in your blog, do you have to have premium membership???
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
11. IFuSAYso
4:50 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
ty
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
10. miguel617
4:50 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Thanks Levi. Always a great job with the tidbits.
Member Since: January 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
9. InTheCone
3:42 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Great job, always interesting to follow along with your thinking as these systems develop.

Hope you have a fun weekend, although I'll bet we'll be seeing a tidbit or 2 during that time.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1990
8. WxCFL
3:37 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Thank you again for the information, Levi.
Member Since: August 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
7. Levi32
2:06 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
TPW imagery shows rotation in the mid-levels with our feature north of Panama:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
5. belizeit
1:52 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Given that it will likely directly impact your area as it approaches and crosses the Yucatan, you could get a fair amount, perhaps 3-6 inches, maybe more depending on how slow the system moves and how broad it is.
Hope it doesen't rain to much i live on the north side of the mountain range so i get more rain if the clouds pile up so lets see what happens
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 947
4. Levi32
1:46 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
The wind has become calm over the last two hours at San Andres Island, with a diurnal minimum pressure of 1007mb. The calming of the winds may hint at a broad trough or center of low pressure beginning to form, cutting off the trade wind flow.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
3. Levi32
1:44 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting belizeit:
Hey Levi how much rain could we expect from this system here in Belize


Given that it will likely directly impact your area as it approaches and crosses the Yucatan, you could get a fair amount, perhaps 3-6 inches, maybe more depending on how slow the system moves and how broad it is.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
2. belizeit
1:36 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Hey Levi how much rain could we expect from this system here in Belize
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 947
1. AtHomeInTX
1:34 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Thanks Levi.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427

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Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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