Don to remain a moderate tropical storm and bring some rain to Texas

By: Levi32 , 1:45 PM GMT on July 28, 2011

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Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office.



If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems with the video, and please feel free to ask me any questions regarding what I talk about in these tidbits, or about the weather in general. You can post in either of my blogs or on Youtube. I will do my best to answer. Thanks for stopping by!



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The main feature today is Tropical Storm Don, moving WNW across the central Gulf of Mexico towards the Texas coastline. Don was upgraded straight to a tropical storm yesterday after the recon found a respectable pressure of 1001mb and TS-force winds. During the rest of the day, Don struggled due to proximity to land, dry air entrainment, and wind shear out of the northeast due to the big southern U.S. ridge, all issues that we discussed yesterday would be negative influences on Don. These will continue to hinder the storm during its journey across the gulf. A new burst of convection is developing just to the southeast of the surface center, indicating that Don may make some recovery today and strengthen a little bit. A moderate tropical storm at peak still looks good to me, around 50mph with the possibility for 60mph if Don can fire convection over the center today or tomorrow.



With track, Don was able to become a deeper system yesterday morning and exert a strong presence at the 500mb level, allowing him to feel the mid-level steering flow and move WNW. The surface flow is still much more northerly, and keeps trying to pull the surface center out from under the convection. There is still a possibility that this could succeed in pulling Don farther up the Texas coast if he weakens before landfall, but I think he will hold together just enough to continue to be steered by the big southern U.S. ridge into southern Texas. The models have come into better agreement since yesterday, and almost all of the northerly solutions that brought Don into the Galveston area yesterday are now in line with my idea of southern Texas between Brownsville and Corpus Christi late tomorrow night or early Saturday morning. Given the shape of the coastline, I would expect landfall to be closer to Corpus than Brownsville.



Overall, Don is not a huge wind threat, though folks should still take the necessary precautions. At this point, we are hoping for Don to hold together to bring Texas some rain, more than we are worried about this blowing up into a dangerous hurricane.



We shall see what happens!

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29. ReefMaster
1:41 PM GMT on July 29, 2011
Great update. Many thanks.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
28. Levi32
2:14 AM GMT on July 29, 2011
Don's convection is waning again. The environment cannot support anything more than periodic pulsing, not a full-on sustained rapid intensification. Recon winds only support a 40-45kt TS at maximum right now.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
27. Storm4Ivana
1:35 AM GMT on July 29, 2011
As an indirect consequence of TS Don, New Orleans International Airport, KMSY, picked up 3.49 inches of rain today, ending at 00z/29th. This pushes the July monthly total to over 10 inches.

Hopefully, Don will move into the lower Rio Grande Valley and dump some much needed precipitation to that area hard hit by drought.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
26. Levi32
12:45 AM GMT on July 29, 2011
999mb measured from dropsonde.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
25. Levi32
12:23 AM GMT on July 29, 2011
995mb being extrapolated by recon as a new convective burst expands near Don's center. This is the most sustained burst so far, and is intensifying the storm. Still waiting for a vortex message to get the official pressure reading.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
24. Levi32
7:08 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Quoting BA:
question from video... our area referred to as the "coastal bend"

thx for the video, as always


Yeah someone else mentioned that to me as well. Thanks for clearing that up :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
23. BA
5:25 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
question from video... our area referred to as the "coastal bend"

thx for the video, as always
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
22. Levi32
4:39 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Latest vortex message from recon shows Don's pressure up to 1005mb, rising after falling a bit earlier. Convection just south of the center is struggling due to dry air entrainment, subsidence to the north, and wind shear out of the northeast. These conditions have all been lined out to be inhibitors of Don's intensification, and should keep him in check as me moves across the gulf. He needs to stop weakening though, or his surface center may get pulled up farther north than the current forecast track.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
21. Levi32
4:39 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, off the Don topic for a moment. What is the future of that wave in the Atlantic in terms of developing down the road?


It looks similar to how Don looked when he was out in the eastern Atlantic, and some similar forecast logic may be in play. The dry air will inhibit development in the near term, but as it moves over warmer water once it nears the Caribbean it may moisten up a little bit and have a better chance at stirring up mischief. A general WNW track will be the rule for a while, and should take the wave into the lesser Antilles in a few days. It should be watched for development west of 55W.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
20. jvega
4:25 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
thank you
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
18. AtHomeInTX
3:30 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Thanks Levi. I hope it brings rain to south/central TX too. Right now looks like a naked swirl racing north and the rain wnw. So I guess that'll work too. Lol. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 258
17. Tropicsweatherpr
3:23 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Levi, off the Don topic for a moment. What is the future of that wave in the Atlantic in terms of developing down the road?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15476
15. PcolaDan
2:50 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Quoting outrocket:
so there are rumblings south of Levi...tks dan


a 2.5 earlier further south and west

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
14. Levi32
2:45 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
10am advisory shows that Don is slightly to the right of the previous forecast track.

Heading to work now. Back later.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
13. outrocket
2:44 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
so there are rumblings south of Levi...tks dan
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11016
12. Levi32
2:43 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Up to 45mph:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 281440
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT DON IS A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 90.1W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
11. Levi32
2:42 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:


Ooh....bet they felt that one a little bit in Anchorage.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
10. outrocket
2:41 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
yup...and he's the best tropical forecaster Alaska has:)....
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11016
9. PcolaDan
2:39 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
8. Levi32
2:24 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Quoting floridaboy14:

Well Don is a good example of when the models show a recurvuture a LONG way out, the storm moves much further west and threatens the US (Texas). Do you think the NHC will bump up the wind speed for don at the 11am advisory because the pressure is currently falling below 1000mb and there is a new burst of convection


I find no point in forecasting what another forecaster will forecast....lol. The NHC will base their forecast off of their reasoning, not mine. Chances are they will follow the intensity model consensus, as they usually do.

Edit* This is how tired I am. I thought you were speaking of the intensity forecast instead of the initial intensity. They may up it depending on the recon data that we get up to the advisory time. There have been some supporting readings for 45mph, but we'll see.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
7. hydrus
2:23 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Thank you for the update..Good cyclonic turning with the wave in the Atlantic with a lot of dry air. It will be interesting to watch.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24194
6. floridaboy14
2:13 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Yes they did, and we discussed the pattern that would tend to keep it from recurving, along with potentially the next couple of waves behind it. We will see if that pattern holds here.

Well Don is a good example of when the models show a recurvuture a LONG way out, the storm moves much further west and threatens the US (Texas). Do you think the NHC will bump up the wind speed for don at the 11am advisory because the pressure is currently falling below 1000mb and there is a new burst of convection
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
5. Levi32
2:08 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Quoting floridaboy14:
Thanks for the Update! although as you mentioned about that possible trough recurving that wave, its a long way out and didnt the models show Don recurving when it was approaching the islands?


Yes they did, and we discussed the pattern that would tend to keep it from recurving, along with potentially the next couple of waves behind it. We will see if that pattern holds here.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
4. floridaboy14
2:06 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Thanks for the Update! although as you mentioned about that possible trough recurving that wave, its a long way out and didnt the models show Don recurving when it was approaching the islands?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
3. outrocket
2:06 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
yup Don is getting a bit of a wedgie:)...Good report
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11016
2. FormerTigergirl
2:06 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Thanks Levi, great update as always...hoping to get a little rain from this system here in Beaumont, Texas.
Member Since: July 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
1. Levi32
2:00 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Pressure falling to 999mb:

000
URNT15 KNHC 281347
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 23 20110728
133800 2406N 09015W 8429 01560 0081 187 065 029014 014 023 000 03
133830 2405N 09014W 8430 01555 0075 190 065 024013 013 024 001 00
133900 2404N 09012W 8432 01555 0073 190 066 019014 014 024 002 00
133930 2403N 09011W 8428 01555 0071 189 066 019014 015 022 000 00
134000 2402N 09009W 8433 01548 0070 190 065 021016 018 019 001 00
134030 2402N 09008W 8430 01550 0071 184 065 019017 018 020 001 03
134100 2401N 09006W 8433 01544 0069 183 065 017015 016 022 000 03
134130 2400N 09004W 8429 01545 0063 190 064 017015 017 023 000 00
134200 2359N 09003W 8430 01543 0062 186 064 011017 018 023 001 03
134230 2359N 09001W 8430 01538 0057 189 064 006018 018 024 000 00
134300 2358N 08959W 8432 01532 0046 195 064 005017 018 027 001 00
134330 2358N 08958W 8424 01537 0040 197 064 335013 014 030 000 03
134400 2357N 08956W 8432 01521 0033 198 065 300015 016 029 002 00
134430 2357N 08954W 8428 01518 0026 200 066 280015 017 029 001 00
134500 2357N 08952W 8433 01515 0027 196 067 246018 019 023 001 03
134530 2358N 08950W 8429 01520 0026 201 069 220018 020 /// /// 03
134600 2359N 08950W 8438 01506 0010 224 071 159018 020 /// /// 03
134630 2401N 08952W 8440 01499 9995 238 076 113026 030 026 000 03
134700 2401N 08954W 8438 01507 9992 253 081 093029 030 027 001 00
134730 2402N 08956W 8432 01520 0002 246 087 079031 032 026 001 03
$$
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741

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