Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

Last Updated: 7:53 PM GMT on May 16, 2013 — Last Comment: 1:12 PM GMT on May 20, 2013

	Irene to hit Puerto Rico directly, coming in farther north, may hit Carolinas instead

Posted by: Levi32, 4:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2011

Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office.

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems with the video, and please feel free to ask me any questions regarding what I talk about in these tidbits, or about the weather in general. You can post in either of my blogs or on Youtube. I will do my best to answer. Thanks for stopping by!

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Tropical Storm Irene developed a bit quicker than expected yesterday. Organization has been slow overnight due to the large nature of the system. The core convection is not that strong this morning, as some mid-level dry air is infiltrating the system at the moment, shown by the sounding out of San Juan at 12z. Irene's mid-level center is apparent on satellite imagery, with recon insisting that the surface center is farther south. While the pressure center is there, southerly winds are being found directly north of it, indicating that the surface center is about to reform beneath the mid-level one and become vertically stacked, at which point it will be better able to strengthen.

The storm is now north of where the models and NHC had it, and may move more directly over Puerto Rico, fulfilling their tropical storm warning to the fullest. This is bad news for everyone, as Irene may now avoid the bulk of Hispaniola and only scrape the northern portion. If Irene becomes stacked and mixes out the dry air, and if Puerto Rico doesn't significantly negatively impact the core, then the Dominican Republic could be dealing with a minimal hurricane by the time it nears the coast.

Down the road this is bad news for the United States, as less interaction means more time over water, and Irene could have a decent amount of time to strengthen before threatening the United States. What makes it worse is that the track may now take her east of Florida, and up into the Carolinas instead, giving her even more time over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The eastern Gulf of Mexico is taken out of the equation now, and this is a threat to east Florida up through Georgia and the Carolinas. The steering pattern is gone over again in the video, describing how the ridge building back in as the trough exits should result in a straight north or NNW track into the coast, with no giant trough trying to recurve the storm rapidly. This won't be a fast-mover coming in, and we could potentially be talking about a major hurricane threatening the southeast U.S. coastline in 4-5 days. This is not meant to frighten or alarm anybody, but folks should make sure that their hurricane plans are ready to execute in case their area is targeted. This is a real storm that has the look of a peak of the season hurricane that could get pretty strong if conditions are as favorable as they look right now in the Bahamas area. Folks from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should already be prepared for this, and the Bahamas are next to feel the effects.

We shall see what happens!

Official NHC Forecast for Tropical Storm Irene:

Official NHC Public Advisory for Tropical Storm Irene:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 211456
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...IRENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 63.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO ON THE NORTH COAST

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST.
BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE
WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AND APPROACH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

San Juan, Puerto Rico Radar Loop:

Tropical Storm Irene Visible/IR2 Floater:

Tropical Storm Irene Track Forecast Models:

Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):

Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):

Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:

200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):

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1. shoreacres 5:04 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thanks, Levi. (And by the way, the uptick in your visitor count immediately after posting is a good indication of how much folks appreciate the effort you put into this - not to mention the lack of foolishness.) Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 195 Comments: 14799

2. kiktkat101 5:09 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thank you!! Member Since: July 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4

3. scottsvb 5:11 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Glad you came into alignment with my thoughts also :) good video Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1065

4. NavarreMark 5:13 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thanks Levi. Nice update. Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3789

5. IFuSAYso 5:19 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Ty Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 115

6. iluvocala 5:21 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thank you so much. Im in mid north Florida, with friend in Miami, so Im certainly watching this closely. Your updates are very detailed yet easy to understand. Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 56

7. EagleHarborZig 5:30 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thanks for the update Levi. I hope you can spend time with your family with such a big storm that seems to defy forecasting. Member Since: March 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 23

8. CTSkywatcher 5:34 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Excellent update, many thanks! Member Since: March 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 52

9. JBirdFireMedic 5:36 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thanks Levi! Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246

10. V1perman 5:36 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thanks. Keep up the great work. Really appreciated. Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

11. DakeMisc 5:37 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thank you Levi--ALWAYS appreciate your input. Member Since: September 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30

12. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:39 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thanks Levi! Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25312

13. goldenpixie1 5:42 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thanks bunches! Member Since: January 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 64

14. palmettobug53 5:43 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
ICK, ICK, ICK! Thanks for the analysis; well done. On the other hand, I can't say that I really, really like it. Puts me in the crosshairs! ICK, ICK, ICK! Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 207 Comments: 21461

15. sarahjola 5:44 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
hi levi! i have been asking 2 questions all morning and can't seem to get anyone to answer them. i am watching visible and it seems to me that irene is taking a w, maybe even sw jog. my question is where is the high and is it building back in to the west? i heard that it was and i have not heard anyhting else about it. if the high is building back in to the w, then what does that mean for the track and what kind of time frame are we looking at to see a movement in irene? also if its not too much trouble can you tell me what things or signs i can look for on visible or wv to indicate the high and where it is going? or is there something i can look at that shows where any fronst of troughs are and when they may have an impact on irene? if you can answer any one of these questions i would be very greatful. thanks! Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

16. sarahjola 5:44 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
i am a weather nerd with no real knowledge of weather. lol! Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

17. InTheCone 5:47 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thanks Levi, great job as always. Not liking what this storm is becoming, someone is going to take a major hit! Hope you are enjoying some home cooking! Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

18. Levi32 5:51 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Quoting sarahjola: hi levi! i have been asking 2 questions all morning and can't seem to get anyone to answer them. i am watching visible and it seems to me that irene is taking a w, maybe even sw jog. my question is where is the high and is it building back in to the west? i heard that it was and i have not heard anyhting else about it. if the high is building back in to the w, then what does that mean for the track and what kind of time frame are we looking at to see a movement in irene? also if its not too much trouble can you tell me what things or signs i can look for on visible or wv to indicate the high and where it is going? or is there something i can look at that shows where any fronst of troughs are and when they may have an impact on irene? if you can answer any one of these questions i would be very greatful. thanks! Well I don't see the SW jog, but you can see the high easily on CIMSS steering maps: Right now the ridge extends all the way across Florida, but the trough you can see digging down into Michigan right now will weaken the high near the Bahamas through Tuesday. After that trough leaves, the high will build back in to the west again. This means that the storm will first be drawn NW, and then the ridge building back west will prevent it from recurving northeast out to sea, and push it on a continuing NNW course into the coastline. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

19. Hoff511 5:56 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thanks Levi! Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 254

20. sarahjola 5:57 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
sorry! you already answered all my questions in your blog. thanks! i have never read it before and i always see peolpe talking about your updates, and i have to say they are very good! even i can understand what is happening now. thank you! Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

21. breald 5:57 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thanks for the awesome update Levi! Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5298

22. sarahjola 6:01 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
thanks! sorry i made you repeat yourself. Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

23. BA 6:02 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
thx levi ukmet takes it through the slot into the gulf heh Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 143

24. watercayman 6:07 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Excellent as always, thanks Levi. Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 77

25. sarahjola 6:14 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
one question- is it at all possible for the high to build back in to the west faster, or out further to the east? tia! Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

26. PSLFLCaneVet 6:17 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thank you, Levi! Your analysis and presentations are very thorough, as always. You're a highly valued member here. As it happens my thinking was much the same. I've been watching it try to edge north of the main body of the Greater Antilles since very early this morning. As you said, we shall see. Kudos, Bud! Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

27. bohonkweatherman 6:24 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Great job as always and Thank You Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

28. vortmax 6:40 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Levi, Just wanted to say how much I enjoy your updates. I am a Met. Grad. from RU 1990. I am amazed at how you present your analysis- thorough, clear, insightful, and professional. If they every start a 'real' Weather Channel, you would be the ideal choice to run the whole thing. Keep up the great work - it is truly appreciated! Member Since: July 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 3

29. splash3392 6:48 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thank You, Levi. Great Job! Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 631

30. Levi32 6:50 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Quoting sarahjola: one question- is it at all possible for the high to build back in to the west faster, or out further to the east? tia! There is of course still some wiggle room. I think this is a landfall either way, as I don't see how it is going to escape out to sea in this pattern. Florida to the Carolinas could still get hit, as only a small shift in the track can lead to great shifts up and down the coastline due to its angle. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

31. ScarlettOHara 6:56 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Hey Levi .. Right now the little green dot on the 2 pm model is on my house for Friday a.m. ... so I'm glad to hear your analysis .. I'm praying for a hard right NOW (although I know it's not likely). Don't wish these storms on anyone. Along with the others, thanks again and great job. We appreciate your time and efforts so much! :) Member Since: October 25, 2006 Posts: 185 Comments: 5804

32. tramp96 7:37 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
At 2pm the NHC still had their middle of their track going right threw Fl. Can you explain the difference in your thinking to their thinking. Will the bridge in the high slow the hurricane down? I want to echo the compliments about your blog, I have watched it since you first started it and was blown away by the complexity of the weather. Thank you for explaining it I learn something new everyday Member Since: August 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 331

33. Levi32 8:28 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Quoting tramp96: At 2pm the NHC still had their middle of their track going right threw Fl. Can you explain the difference in your thinking to their thinking. Will the bridge in the high slow the hurricane down? I want to echo the compliments about your blog, I have watched it since you first started it and was blown away by the complexity of the weather. Thank you for explaining it I learn something new everyday Thank you, and to all who left comments. The NHC almost always goes with the model consensus. Here, they are a little bit to the left because the models have suddenly shifted right (and rightfully so). The NHC gives such sudden shifts a bit of lag time to see if they are actually a persistent shift before they follow along fully. They know that models will wag back and forth. Here, they will most likely stay where they are, and thus the ensuing NHC tracks starting with 5pm should shift gradually eastward until they match the model consensus. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

34. AtHomeInTX 8:29 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thanks Levi. It's been coming unfortunately. Great job as usual. Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3884

35. whitewabit 8:59 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Levi ... good video for the ones with little or no understanding of the whole weather picture ... Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 323 Comments: 24101

36. AllyBama 9:18 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
love ya' Levi!...I appreciate all of the time and mechanics that you put into your tropical weather analysis. Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20499

37. Misogynist 9:46 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thank You, I love learning. Member Since: May 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 32

38. Levi32 10:22 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Thank you all for stopping by. 996.5mb and light west winds at St. Croix. Irene is likely down to 996mb central pressure now. That corresponds to a moderate-strong tropical storm. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

39. palmettobug53 10:46 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Just an FYI, posters and lurkers. Randy Bynon, one of WU's featured bloggers, is at the forward staging point for the Hurricane Hunters in St. Croix. He promised an update in the a.m. with the latest info plus pics. I heard that he's retiring after this season. Whatever he posts tomorrow, it will be informative and a great counterpoint to Levi's analysis. Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 207 Comments: 21461

40. hulakai 11:14 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
As it unfolds, i tend to agree with your more northerly track. Since i am in the crosshairs (deerfield beach, fl) perhaps i am wishcasting. I think the storm wiil be stronger than the NHC , but the Bahamas seem a more likely destination. After that i would bet on a recurve. Your input is always appreciated Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 91

41. Thrawst 11:15 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Quoting hulakai: As it unfolds, i tend to agree with your more northerly track. Since i am in the crosshairs (deerfield beach, fl) perhaps i am wishcasting. I think the storm wiil be stronger than the NHC , but the Bahamas seem a more likely destination. After that i would bet on a recurve. Your input is always appreciated I agree. I will most likely get a direct hit. Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 49 Comments: 1064

42. Levi32 11:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
NHC 8pm Advisory Information on Tropical Storm Irene: 8:00 PM AST Sun Aug 21 Location: 17.8°N 64.9°W Max sustained: 60 mph Moving: WNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 995 mb Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

43. Levi32 12:26 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Recon finds her down to 994mb and 55kt surface winds. 000 URNT12 KNHC 220021 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 22/00:05:00Z B. 17 deg 51 min N 065 deg 01 min W C. 850 mb 1383 m D. 55 kt E. 314 deg 46 nm F. 040 deg 58 kt G. 294 deg 37 nm H. 994 mb I. 16 C / 1524 m J. 20 C / 1520 m K. 18 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF302 0309A IRENE OB 03 MAX FL WIND 58 KT NW QUAD 23:52:40Z MAX FL TEMP 21 C 273 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

44. DomRepSamana 12:30 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Getting the outter bands of rain now. Wind 17 mph out of the NE, expected though. BTW, I found myself anxiously waiting for your update, and my friends here wait for me to get it from you. Gracious!!!!!! Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

45. BaltimoreBrian 1:40 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
What odds would you give for a landfall in each southeastern state? I'm guessing now 25% Florida 10% Georgia 50% South Carolina 10% North Carolina With 5% left over for Irene dying, going out to sea, or going through the Florida straits. All unlikely options. What percentage for landfall would you give for each state? Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 3345

46. Levi32 3:16 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting BaltimoreBrian: What odds would you give for a landfall in each southeastern state? I'm guessing now 25% Florida 10% Georgia 50% South Carolina 10% North Carolina With 5% left over for Irene dying, going out to sea, or going through the Florida straits. All unlikely options. What percentage for landfall would you give for each state? I don't like giving hard percentages for things like that. General ideas are all we have right now. I think South Carolina is most likely to get the hit, but anywhere from Florida to North Carolina is still at significant risk, depending on the details of the track. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

47. Levi32 3:16 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Recon finding Irene getting stronger still, now just under hurricane status on approach to Puerto Rico. Radar shows the storm is moving slower and starting to develop an eye. Residents in Puerto Rico should be prepared for hurricane conditions overnight. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

48. BEENE 7:32 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Thanks for the update Levi- Member Since: June 16, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 52

49. Hawkeyewx 12:38 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
Boy, a couple days ago I don't think anyone thought Irene would end up north of Puerto Rico. It just kept stair-stepping north through the islands. Should be one of the more interesting weeks in quite a while. Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1922

50. msphar 1:38 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
Radar still down in San Juan this morning! Heard that power was lost to 800,000 people in the San Juan area last night. This is going to be painful for all of them. They will only be the first to suffer. Great analysis young man! Keep up the great work. You have an art. Its well honed, and people are noticing. Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 258

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About Levi32:

Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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