Mikeman444's Blog

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	Spring 2012 forcast for the Canadian prairies

Posted by: Mikeman444, 2:45 AM GMT on March 20, 2012

A look back at Winter.
I was spot on with my winter forecast, even though I went out on a limb against every other forecast including forecasts from accredited meteorological agencies!

What else can be said, this is easily my most bang on seasonal forecast yet.

So what does the forecast hold for spring?

Major pattern changes have taken place just days after my first draft of the forecast so I've come up with an "emergency" re release of my spring 2012 forecast.

An extreme pattern is taking hold, a tanking AO index has made things even more extreme. So getting this one right is going to be hard, the winter had a stable jet stream so it was not very hard to predict months down the road, were coming into the spring with the most extreme jet stream I can remember, while my attention was focused on the 75% of Canada under the heat wave I failed to notice some things including the heavy snow and frigid temperatures in the US desert southwest and the formation of a cut off low caused by a very extreme kink in the jet. Thus I think the spring could have extremes of every sort.

Rest of March, Very warm east of Alberta #2 highway, snow and cold to the west.

April:
(possibly the coldest and snowiest since 2007)
April 1-15: Unusually strong outburst of arctic air with daily and even monthly record lows falling over a wide area, heavy snow up to 45cm in large areas as well.

April 15-30: Slightly warmer, significant snowfall of 50cm or more possible in the Alberta foothills, heavy rains during warmer days.

May:
(some recovery but nature will continue to issue punishment for a lack of winter)

May 1-15: Heavy snows in the Alberta foothills. Hot and humid for eastern areas leading to severe

May 15-31: Rapidly warming up in Alberta, flooding likely in Alberta from snowmelt, Hot and humid for eastern areas with thunderstorms

June
(Rapid warmup could lead to flooding in Alberta and severe thunderstorms a tornadoes in the east)

June 1-21: Hot and very humid for the eastern region. Warm and somewhat humid for Alberta

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Updated: 2:30 AM GMT on March 26, 2012

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