NEwxguy's WunderBlog 

We have Ernesto which is moving west in the Carribean,but struggling to get organized.Will most likely move into the Yucantan and then eventually into Mexico.Shouldn't be a major storm,but will dump a lot of rain where ever it goes.
Then we have a very poor looking Florence,which will probably disappear in the next couple of days,but you never know,is it moves across the ocean you always have to watch these things.

Looks like Ernesto has decided to get its act together is really organizing into real Tropical system. could be a hurricane by later today.Direction seems to be wnw so Yucatan pennisula looks to be in its sites.Kind of concerned about the track as it grows,it will be influenced by the trough moving by north of it.
Looking way down the road to next week,east coast has to be on the watch for the Cape Verde storms coming off Africa,pattern is set up to threaten the east coast,but as is always the case a long ways down the road and anything is possible.

after the sudden strengthening episode that occurred this morning...the last couple of center penetrations by the hurricane hunters indicated that the intensity has leveled off. The central pressure has stopped falling...for now...and the intensity of the core convection...as measured by cloud top temperatures and lightning data...has noticeably diminished. The current wind speed is kept at 55 kt...which is consistent with the last SFMR observations over the northeast quadrant of the circulation. Upper-level outflow has become fairly well defined as compared to the last few days. Although the cyclone has not strengthened further over the past few hours...Ernesto is in a weak shear environment and has the potential to become a hurricane before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. That is the scenario shown by the official intensity forecast...which is in good agreement with the numerical intensity model consensus.

After the earlier repositioning of the center...there is more
confidence in the initial motion estimate...which is now 295/10.
Over the next few days...a 500 mb trough is forecast to move into
the eastern United States...to the north of a rather weak ridge
over the Gulf of Mexico. The global models...in particular the GFS
and the ECMWF...continue to indicate that the ridge will not be
weak enough to allow Ernesto to move very far north over the Gulf.
The official track forecast is only slightly north of the previous
one and is close to the latest dynamical model consensus. This is
also similar to the GFS...and a little north of the new ECMWF
track.

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201205.disc .html#G5d36cXvIP3kcgUF.99

Florence appears to be done,but I always like to watch these naked swirls.Until I dont see any circulation,I am wary of anything restarting,have seen it happen before,but for now Florence is done.


organized deep convection has been absent for over 12 hours now...and all that remains of Florence is an exposed surface circulation and a small cluster of thunderstorms located about 110 miles west of the center of circulation. Consequently...Florence is assessed as a Post-tropical remnant low and this will be the last advisory on this system. A surrounding dry/stable air mass...cool sea surface temperatures...and increasing southwesterly shear should lead to dissipation in 5 days or less.


The remnant low continues to move westward...but at a slightly
faster rate of forward motion...275/13. During the next couple of
days...the system should turn west-northwestward and continue
to increase in speed within the low-level steering flow to the
south of a subtropical ridge. The official NHC forecast is
similar to the previous package and is based on the tvca
multi-model consensus.

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201206.disc .html#cqhoPJ5g0BdpHf4D.99