Favorites
You don't appear to have any favorites yet, or your cookies may be disabled.
| Welcome to Weather Underground! Sign In or Create an Account. Edit my Page Preferences. | New Website - Full Screen - Mobile - iPhone - Lite - Download |
Last Updated: 10:32 PM GMT on June 12, 2013
— Last Comment: 9:38 AM GMT on June 19, 2013
|
Letter from India
It has been hot in South Asia, with temperatures in the mid-40s C (Celsius - 40 C is about 104 F) and a few temperatures recorded above 50 C (122 F). Here are the links to some news stories. from the Khaleej Times from the London Times from Radio Australia This is a part of the world where it is often hot. Here is a link to the BBC website that talks about a heat wave in 2002. BBC report of 2002 heat wave In this report, HR Hathwar, a senior member of the Indian Meteorological Department "said that while the current spell is not extraordinary, it still is many degrees above the normal range." Again in 2003 there was a notable heat wave as well. This image is from NASA's Earth Observatory, and shows temperature in May of 2003. Here is a link to the full story. NASA's Earth Observatory. Indian Heat Wave 2003 ) ( and ... NASA's Earth Observatory. For the 2007 Heat Wave ) <>img src= http://climateknowledge.org/figures/WuGblog_figures/RBRWuG0030_NASA_EO_India_Heat_2003.jpg > Figure 1: Land Surface Temperature measured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ) The hot temperatures in India appear as a eastward extension of the hot deserts in Africa and Arabia. In India, the very hot weather comes prior to the monsoon, which brings not only relief from the heat but much needed water. (Also, it brings floods.) Here in 2007, with another heat wave, reports of deaths transmitted world wide, and the current discussion of climate change, there is a different tone and a different spirit to the discussion. Currently my niece Claire is living in New Delhi, and here (with her permission, of course) is a recent letter she wrote me of what it is like (climate wise) to be there right now. From Niece Claire in New Delhi,(Posted June 21, 2007) In the beginning of June, north Indian newspapers carried two stories that slyly glance at one another. One set of headlines describes the misery of record-breaking hot temperatures all over north India in June: each day has an illustration with little red thermometers plotting the high temperatures in different cities, and each day has a conjecture as to whether this is part of an inevitable warming future. Another set of headlines bears the news of the G-8 summit in Europe. Though neither China nor India are included in the G-8 in spite of their power, this year both are under increased scrutiny for their emissions. Echoing representations of the East's teeming masses that date from colonial times, the scrutiny of the current G-8 appears so justified: after all, these countries have populations exceeding a billion! Yet living through the heat in India makes one see the scrutiny through a different lens. Here, in Delhi, where all the buses and auto-rickshaws used by the majority of people run on compressed natural gas, where many use bicycles or less-polluting motorcycles, where more and more take the city metro, and where the minority drive their cars to work, is the scrutiny misplaced? In this heat, people do not go to air-conditioned gyms in the middle of the day as they do in the West: instead, you will find municipal parks packed from 5 a.m. until the heat begins at 7 a.m and again in the evening, once the sun has set and the heat has subsided. As with most places, the toll that the heat takes is stratified by class: the poor still do hard labor in the middle of the day, and the more wealthy can retreat to cooler places with swamp coolers or air-conditioners. Yet even still, for those who have air-conditioners, it is routine practice to have one primary room cooled that will be shared and for lights, fans, and electric switches to be turned off as soon as one leaves a room. All Indians have taken their fair-share of load-sharing--when the electricity is turned off for a period of time during the day--necessitated to make the power supply last, to the point where conversations don't even pause when the lights go out. (One the other hand, in California under Gray Davis' tenure, billions of dollars were spent just to make sure the power didn't go off during the energy crisis.) However, the vast majority of people get by with the occasional relief of a fan, of shade, or of slowing down in the middle of the day. Rain, and the coolness that it brings, has a romantic legacy for a reason. Perhaps if more world leaders spend a few days in Delhi summers instead of retreating to meetings with central cooling, they would think about weather, and the resources that people use to get through it, in different ways. ricky View (87) Comments For This Post
Sea Level: Past and Future
About 10 years ago I went to Portchester Castle on the coast of England. This castle is built at sea level and has a moat that is filled with tidal water. The first enclosure is Roman, built in the third century. What strikes a climate person is that sea level has been stable for a long time. Here is great aerial photo of the castle from Goggle Maps.  Figure 1: Aerial photo of Portchester Castle In the 10 April 2007 issue of EOS (The Transactions of the American Geophysical Union ), there was an article by John Day Jr. and co-authors on the emergence of civilizations after sea level stabilized following the last ice age. This article shows that cities and complex societies started to form about 1000 years after the sea level rise stabilized. The argument was that in this amount of time coastal ecosystems stabilized. This was a source of relatively easy food, hence calories, and having excess caloric energy is what allows people to move away from being primarily food collectors. This is one of several pieces of evidence of the co-evolution of thriving humanity and climate. We have evolved, and we have changed our relationship with coastal ecosystems. We exploit ecosystems far from our homes. We have depleted the natural resources of coastal ecosystems, and we use aquaculture to generate food. Still, rapid sea level will be disruptive to this ecosystem and those who depend on it. Looking into the future, however, brings a new problem. The Day et al. article cited above shows the development of cities along the coasts. Today people are moving to the cities, and more than half of the world's population lives in cities. By 2030 more than 60% of the people are projected to live in cities. (Here are current and projected urban centers from the consulting firm Demographia .) We have seen the emergence of mega-cities. A majority portion of population will live on a very small percentage of the land. And, like 6000 years ago, many of these cities are on the sea. Hence, when we think about the impact of climate change on people, we need to think specifically about how cities are impacted. Already stressed resources, like fresh water, are subject to additional stresses from climate change. Harbors, airports, roads, and buildings will be more vulnerable to storm damage and outright flooding. With the projected rise in sea level, we once again, link the stability of sea level rise to the stability and success of societies. Since significant sea level rise will occur, this leads to the question of adaptation--potentially relocation. ricky Day et al., 2007: The Emergence of Complex Societies after Sea Level Stabilized. EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, pp 169-170. View (70) Comments For This Post
Redux: Arrogance, Models, Responsibility
I am motivated by the remarks to my last blog about the use of models that cannot predict next month's temperature to develop policy. The basic idea was that if the model cannot predict next month's temperature, then why should we give it any credibility predicting next century's temperature? This is a comment or criticism that is often stated in the climate change discourse. Give this a run: Imagine that you live in a place with reliable rain. At the beginning of each year, you have some confidence that it will rain over the course of the year. You do not know in advance exactly which days it will rain, but you are confident that the rain will come. Suppose further, that you have a very good weather service, which can predict rain 2 days in advance. You decide to build a cistern, or a pond. I like the cistern better, because we can imagine closing it so that we don't have to worry about the loss from evaporation. If on New Year's you wanted to predict the filling of your cistern, then you would find yourself in the following situation. In any two day period you could predict with high accuracy that water would accumulate in the cistern; you have excellent 2 day weather forecasts. Over the course of the year, you can expect your cistern to fill up; you have reliable rain over the course of a year. In between two days and a year, your forecasts are not so good; you do not know beyond 2 days exactly when it will rain. Therefore, you have a model with good short-term forecasts, reliable long-term forecasts, and that in the intermediate time an exact prediction is not so good. Still this is a useful model, and a model that has been used by farmers for thousands of years. From a scientific point of view, this brings forward the notion of separation of scales. We often are able to know with some precision about the short-term and the long-term. In the short term, we have deterministic predictability. In the long term we know the nature of the balance that must be maintained from the fundamental physics--in the case of climate, the conservation of energy. In between, we are more reliant on probabilistic forecasts, and it takes some skill to know how to handle the errors in a probabilistic forecast. It is equally as interesting to me how people use deterministic and probabilistic knowledge in decision making. There are many situations where knowledge does not rise to the top of the decision making process. An example that is often used is buying a lottery ticket--by a vast probability you are not going to win the lottery; you are giving your money away. This example can be dismissed as low-risk/high-reward or as simple entertainment. But people make decisions all the time based on their belief system or what they want to happen. I was recently introduced to the literature of how people make decisions by one of my students. (There is a literature on everything! (Perhaps too many academics in the world? Arrogant academics?)) One book this student referenced was, Dawes, R. M. (1988), Rational choice in an uncertain world (Fort Worth, Harcourt Brace College Publishers). Dawes discusses irrational decision making, and why we do it. If you Google search on the title you can find whole worlds of critical decision making. It is my evaluation that the information from climate models is reliable enough that we need to limit our emissions of carbon dioxide. I think that the long-term costs will be much less if we act today. On the other hand, I recognize that the environmental impact of reducing carbon dioxide emissions will not be immediately realized. That does not lead me to the decision that nothing should be done. It leads me to the decision that there are a set of problems that exist in the near term, that require our attention. This is a separation of scales. If you choose to focus on only the short-term or the long-term, then you are faced with a set of seeming contradictions. These can be used to justify inaction; they can be used to discredit the other camp. As I said in the last blog ... inaction, seems to me (belief system here), as avoiding our responsibility. We have knowledge. ricky View (41) Comments For This Post
|
 About RickyRood:
My Local Weather:
Recent Photos:
Previous Entries for 2013:
Recommended Links:
 |
|
Find the Weather for any City, State or ZIP Code, or Airport Code or Country:
Custom Weather Services
In addition to this website, we provide a number of free and professional weather services.
Advertise On This Site
Weather Underground has extensive targeting capabilities to fulfill all of your client's advertising needs.
|
  |
 |
About Us - Contact - Employment - Press Releases - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy - WU Gear | : Top of Page : |
Copyright © 2013 Weather Underground, Inc.
|
Copyright © 2013 Weather Underground, Inc.
|
