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	Tropical Update - 8/2/11 ... Emily intensifies

Posted by: Thrawst, 6:14 PM GMT on August 02, 2011

Tropical Storm Emily

Tropical Storm Emily, which formed at 7:30 pm EDT last night, although currently in a state of disorganization, is gradually increasing its winds. According to SMFR measurements from Hurricane Hunter Aircraft (RECON), a surface wind measurement recorded an unflagged, not rain-contaminated wind speed of 54 mph. Although this is probably not indicative of the entire system as a whole, it DOES show that there are some increasingly higher sustained winds in the convective ball that the center is currently under. The center itself is still not that well-organized, and I suspect that another 3-9 hours of continuous convective development may help to organize the center. Based on all of this new information, I suspect it is now a 45-50 mph Tropical Storm, with organization continuing. Currently, outflow is well established, due to a decent upper level anticyclone over the system. This anticyclone should stay overhead Emily as long as enough heat can be released. There are shear axis' just to the south and north of the system, and with the system continuing WNW for the next 36-72 hours, it is expected that these shear areas will not severely disrupt Emily. One thing that will disrupt Emily most of its life, will be dry, sinking air, due to the confluent region of the deep layer ridge to the northwest of the system. All in all, I specify my forecast in the latter periods below.

With a general WNW path to continue for at least the next 48-72 hours, I suspect it will hit the border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. This land interaction and the high mountains over Hispaniola, I believe this storm may weaken to a tropical depression... for the first time in its life. While now some of the global models forecast a dissipation of Emily after crossing Hispaniola, I believe with the current amount of organization, and continued organization in the next 24-36 hours, will currently disregard these models. After crossing the island, I am going to be aggressive, as I always am, and predict it to steadily re-organize due to better conditions over the Bahamas and north of Cuba. By the time it reaches the northwestern Bahamas, I believe it could be back to a moderate-strong Tropical storm, and it has the chance to become a hurricane once it hits the Gulf Stream between the Bahamas and south Florida. The track can certainly change, and I may be COMPLETELY wrong with these forecasts... but this is how I see the conditions will be once it passes Hispaniola.

Regardless, this storm will bring torrential rains to Haiti and the DR. While Emily MAY dissipate after the crossing of Hispaniola, never rule the chance of regeneration.

I'll have another update tonight or tomorrow!
Thrawst

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1. BahaHurican 3:43 AM GMT on August 03, 2011
This is well written, Thrawst, and actually concurs pretty much with what the NHC has out at 11 p.m. tonight.... good first effort. KUTGW! Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682

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About Thrawst:

I have been fascinated by severe and tropical weather since the 2004 season. What a season that was!! Also a wave swell freak!

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