TropicalAnalystwx13's WunderBlog

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	Carlotta a rapidly intensifying Category 2 hurricane, could briefly become a major

Posted by: TropicalAnalystwx13, 9:58 PM GMT on June 15, 2012

Carlotta, now the second hurricane of the 2012 Pacific hurricane season, has put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification today. As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, maximum sustained winds have risen significantly to 105 mph and the minimum barometric pressure has fallen to 976 millibars. This makes Carlotta a dangerous Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Visible satellite imagery reveals a beautiful tropical cyclone with a well-defined, clear eye inside a phenomenal Central Dense Overcast (CDO). Very little banding exists, but cirrus outflow is excellent in all four quadrants of the system. According to CIMSS-ADT T-numbers, Carlotta may be a major hurricane.

Summary of advisory in effect

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Pacific Coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Acapulco

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Pacific Coast of Mexico east of Salina Cruz to Barra De Tonala
* The Pacific Coast of Mexico west of Acapulco to Tecpan De Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Pacific Coast of Mexico east of Salina Cruz to Barra De Tonala

Figure 1. Afternoon visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Carlotta.

The forecast for Carlotta
All indications are that Carlotta will strengthen right up to the point where the center begins to become disrupted by the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast stated that the system had roughly 6 hours until this occurs, and they show it peaking as a 95-kt (110 mph) Category 2 hurricane. While it has a limited amount of time left to do so, I believe Carlotta could attain major hurricane status. It now appears that Carlotta will venture slightly farther inland, and thus, rapid weakening is possible once there. A mid-level trough is forecast to develop across the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and this could bring Carlotta back over waters as a minimal tropical storm or tropical depression. However, no intensification is projected due to its proximity to the Mexican coastline. The forecast now shows dissipation of the system's circulation in roughly 120 hours.

...MAX WINDS...

INIT 15/2100Z 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 95 KT 120 MPH...APPROACHING LANDFALL
24H 16/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 18/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...DISSIPATING
120H 20/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

TropicalAnalystwx13

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1. weatherh98 10:09 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Suckie ;P Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

2. Ameister12 10:33 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Nice job, TA! Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3518

3. superpete 10:59 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Good observations there ,this storm is a reminder of just how quick conditions can change over the short term? Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 498

4. nigel20 3:32 AM GMT on June 16, 2012
Thanks for the update! Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4541

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